Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Hanford, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
952 AM PST Wed Dec 24 2025

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1252 AM PST Wed Dec 24 2025/

KEY MESSAGES...

1. High confidence of a line of heavy rainfall, flooding, and
embedded strong thunderstorms arriving from 4am through 8am
Wednesday, moving from southwest to northeast, starting in Kern
County. Burn scars are at risk.

2. High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory areas impacted by downed
trees or power outages, moderate confidence. Travel will be
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

3. 40% Probability of winds gusting to 30 mph from Merced to
Hanford, will also topple trees and move loose objects.

4. High confidence of heavy snow above 7000 feet, with snow load
impacts on roofs in the high Sierra. Travel will be impossible with
60 mph winds and whiteout conditions.

5. Wednesday afternoon will feature thunderstorms, with the highest
probability of severe weather from Fresno county and points
north.

DISCUSSION...
A potent atmospheric river has arrived along the
southern California coast, bringing with it significant and
impactful precipitation as well as strong winds. Expanding upon
this threat, the Weather Prediction Center's Excessive Rainfall
Outlook highlights the Kern County Mountains as the primary
threat area for heavy precipitation with a Slight risk (15-40%
chance). The risk increases to Moderate (40-70%) along the far
southern edge of the forecast area including I-5 through
Grapevine. Accumulated rainfall amounts continue to track steady
from the previous forecast cycle, with a reasonable high end
scenario for the high terrain nudging upward slightly. The
northern Sierra Nevada are poised to see at least (90% chance) 3
inches of precipitation with as much as 8.5 inches (10% chance)
at the higher end. The upper end potential tapers to 5 inches
(10% chance) at the southern end near Alta Sierra and Lake
Isabella. Significant spread remains at the far southern edge of
the forecast area with a reasonable best/worst case scenario
along I-5 being 1.5 to 6 inches of liquid precipitation.

Given this continued level of confidence, Flood Watches remain
in effect as we head into Wednesday morning. Expect rises along
waterways and minor flooding to occur due to this precipitation.
Recent burn scars, especially those due to the Basin, Garnet,
French, and Borel Fires, will be particularly vulnerable to
excessive runoff and debris flows. Also worth noting that the
Storm Prediction Center has the entire forecast area under a
General Thunder outlook with a low probability of thunderstorm
development in the forecast, and a marginal risk for severe
storms limited to the west of the forecast area at this time.

Snow levels continue to run fairly high given the warm airmass
accompanying this atmospheric river, with high confidence that
the snow level will sit at around 6800-7000 feet. This is
driving a high confidence forecast for multiple feet (3+) of
snow across much of the high Sierra, with confidence greatest
for the highest peaks. It is worth noting that there is a 25%
chance that the snow level could push as high as 8600 feet
during the day on Wednesday, especially further south along the
range.

Wednesday night into Thursday, the likelihood of valley
precipitation decreases greatly as we transition into more of a
terrain-forced mode. This will shift focus for continued
precipitation towards the terrain on Thursday, with early
indications of the storm wrapping up as early as Friday morning
(10% chance), but almost certainly over after midnight Saturday
into Sunday morning (90% chance). In the wake of this system,
ensemble forecasts are in good agreement with the deep upper
level trough closing off and sticking around into early next
week before shifting out of the area. This will lead to a period
of cooler temps and unsettled conditions into mid next week.

AVIATION...

Flight conditions across the San Joaquin Valley will be VFR
becoming MVFR this evening as continued moisture streams into
the region. MVFR/VFR ceilings and visibilities will fall to MVFR
by early this evening with continued shower and rain potential
after a brief "dry" period possible from 18 to 21z.

Wind will remain gusty with gusts remaining from 20-25kts
across the valley into this evening and overnight, especially
for KFAT and terminals north.

With a freezing level around 8500ft AGL, convection will remain
limited with the best potential (< 30%) from KFAT and north this
afternoon into this evening. Any storms will be isolated,
otherwise additional rain and showers will continue into the
overnight period with MVFR (30-40%) ceilings and visibilities
possible.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Wednesday December 24 2025,
Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless
Registered in Fresno and Kern Counties. Burning Discouraged in
Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater
Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is low.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is low.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for CAZ300>339.
High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST Thursday for CAZ333>339.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for CAZ300>304-308-309-
313-314-316>318-324-332.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Friday for CAZ323-326>331.
&&

public...SM
aviation....Mattarochia

weather.gov/hanford

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