Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Hanford, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
320 AM PST Thu Feb 13 2025

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A strong storm system will steer and Atmospheric River into
central California today with periods of moderate to heavy
precipitation. A Flood Watch is in effect for the Sierra Nevada
foothills and down to including the Lake Isabella area through
to 10 PM PST Friday. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the
Sierra Nevada through the same time period.

2. The system will bring elevated winds to the San Joaquin
Valley, Coastal Range and West Side Hills Thursday. A Wind
Advisory has been issued valid from through 7 PM Thursday. Wind
gusts up to 35 mph are expected in the valley with gusts up to
45 mph in the West Side Hills.

3. Drier conditions will prevail from Saturday through the
middle of next week as high pressure strengthens off the
California coast on Saturday before moving inland on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A strong upper low is moving into the region from the Pacific
Ocean into the Golden State early this morning. H2O vapor
satellite channel show a good slug of moisture from an
atmospheric river (AR) directed right into Central and Southern
California early this morning. The upper low slides through the
area into the Four-Corners region by Saturday morning. This
storm brings a wide variety of impactful weather to central
California starting already this morning and lasting into
Friday.

Flood Watches posted for the foothills of the Sierra and Sierra
Valleys through 10 PM on Friday. Already seeing rainfall
approaching a 1/2 inch early in the storm for the foothills of
Madera and Mariposa Counties. Looking at the 25th to 75th
percentiles of expected precipitation from 4 AM this morning
through 4 AM Friday morning the foothills on average range from
2.50 inches on the low end up to 5.50 inches on the high end for
this event. Even low end rainfall will be impactful for the
region. Do anticipate flood products issued for areas of the
foothills throughout the day especially with any convective
activity. The probability of exceeding an inch for the middle of
the San Joaquin Valley for the 72 hour period is around 80
percent. Heading up into the foothills the 80 percent
probability level moves up to three inches, with a 20 percent
probability of up to six inches for the 72 hour total. Even over
the mountains into the Kern County Desert the probability of
1/2 inch of precipitation at Edwards AFB is 60 percent for the
period. Wet all around Interior Central California for sure.

Speaking of convective activity, Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
has highlighted a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from the
San Joaquin Valley from Madera heading north. The probability of
thunder today ranges from 10 to near 30 percent for all of
Interior Central California. The highest probability is centered
on Highway 99 from Tulare northward withe western boundary on
the I-5 and the eastern boundary of the higher elevations of
the Sierra. Low top thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon
for the valley. The cold air mass aloft with some convective
energy provides the basic ingredients from thunderstorms with
low -20 C elevations needed for lightning generation. Then the
added issue of favorable low-level shear that could product just
enough turn to create an environment for tiny rotating
thunderstorms. Short-lived but may produce some weak funnel
clouds or even a very short lived tornado, but probabilities of
tornadic activity is less than 2%. High freezing levels and weak
updraft signal little chance of significant hail. Not the
strongest winds aloft, but when coupled with surface wind this
afternoon a severe wind gust is slightly possible.

On to wind for the High Sierra, wind gusts exceeding 60 mph is
highly likely in the winter storm warning to add to the impacts
in the high country. However, notable is the wind getting into
the San Joaquin Valley. Wind Advisory for gusts to 45 mph is
posted for the San Joaquin Valley west of Highway 99 until 7 PM.
The probability of gusts above 45 mph for this area ranges from
35 to 95 percent. After 11 AM the threat for wind gusts over 45
mph starts for the Mojave Slopes and lasts into Friday morning.
Will issue the wind advisory later this morning for the Slopes.

Then wrapping up the impacts will be snow above 7000 feet for
the Sierra Nevada. Snow totals for the 72 hour period are
impressive. The probability of passing 24 inches is near 100
percent. 24 inches is around the 10th percentile at the
elevations above 7000 feet. When hitting the high end or 90th
percentile some of the highest locations touch the 100 inch
mark. When looking at the EC EFI with max snow in comparison to
climatology and spread it is a major event even for the high
Sierra.

Saturday through next Wednesday ridging is dominate with an
inside slider late Monday into Tuesday. The general trend is
drier for the region. Temperature trend is a slow climb upward
and by the end of the period temperatures look to be slightly
above seasonal normals. Looking at ensemble run-to-run very
little change for moderate confidence in the develop pattern
post the winter storm of today through Friday. CPC 6 to 10 and 8
to 14 day takes the trend of warmer and drier out to the end of
February.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z Thursday Update:

In the San Joaquin Valley and West Side Hills for the 12Z THU to
12Z FRI time frame. MVFR probabilities are near 100 percent
through 00Z FRI and then range from 40 to 60 percent to the end
of the period. IFR probabilities are 30 to 50 percent through
16Z and then fall off to less than 15 percent for the remainder
of the period. KBFL is an exception with near zero percent on
IFR and less than 30 percent for MVFR. Convective activity from
20Z-03Z will briefly bring LIFR under stronger cells. From 12Z
through 16Z KFAT/KVIS will be close to LLWS with speed shear
however should stay below 20 KTS total, however lighter aircraft
may be impacted in the 2-3kft area. Will not carry in TAFs LLWS
on issuance, however will monitor closely. Wind gusts mix into
the region today for some surface wind gusts over 25kts. KVIS
may have LLWS issues after 20Z however with convective potential
will not carry at this time.

In the Sierra Nevada, adjacent foothills and Tehachapi
Mountains, expect mountain obscuring IFR in low clouds and
precipitation will be widespread lasting through the 24 hour
period..

In the Kern County Desert has a probability of MVFR at 40 to 60
percent through the 12Z THU to 12Z FRI period. IFR probability
is less than 20 percent and is expected only with heavier
convective showers.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  02/12/2025 14:29
EXPIRES: 02/13/2025 23:59
On Thursday February 13 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced,
and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and
Sequoia National Park and Forest.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ300>302-
304>306-308>311-313-336.
Flood Watch through Friday evening for CAZ317>322-324-325-332-
333.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Friday for CAZ323-326>331.

&&

Products/DSS........Proton
Warning Met/DSS.....JPK

weather.gov/hanford

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