High Wind Warning 1, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
643 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow overspreads the region this evening into tonight as low
pressure approaches. The low pressure brings accumulating snow
tonight, and wintry mix during the day on Sunday. Cold high
pressure then builds in early next week with very strong gusty
winds, especially on Monday. Another storm system is then
possible later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Update...
Snow has spread across much of New Hampshire as of 23Z per
latest observations and webcams. Have noticed some stations
with winds backing to the north this last hour over southern New
England and portions of New York State which is most likely the
precursor to cold air damming. Have made minor adjustments to
the near term portion of the forecast with this update.
Temperatures have been lowering with the onset of snow due to
the wet bulbing effect and this will likely continue to occur as
the precipitation enters Maine this evening.

Prev Disc...
As of 4 PM, no precipitation is reaching the ground yet in NH
as there's still a bit of dry air to overcome in the low levels.
This will change pretty quickly though as -SN is being reported
just over the border in VT, and hi-res guidance seems to be
latching on well to this faster onset. Isentropic lift will
continue to increase this evening and tonight, allowing to
overspread the region from southwest to northeast. Rates and
amounts will be highest in southern NH where amounts over 6" are
possible by daybreak Sunday. Expected all areas to be snowing
by this time as well, but it may be slower reaching eastern and
far northern areas through tonight where the dry air holds on
longer. There is high confidence that what precip falls tonight
will be all snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Now going into the messy forecast for Sunday...synoptically
there aren't any major changes with the secondary low developing
near the coastline later in the day and then lifting to the
north/northeast in the evening. As this occur, expecting winds
to pick up near the coast especially.

There's plenty of QPF with this system with 1.00-1.25" across
most areas (except downsloping NW of the White Mtns may lower
amounts there) with even higher amounts possibly exceeding 1.50"
across southern NH. As mentioned precip type will be snow
tonight and early morning, but continued WAA aloft through the
day will bring a several hour period of wintry mix to the area,
probably starting sometime in the morning across southern NH and
then into western ME in the early afternoon. Highest snowfall
rates are favored north of this transition zones with the
bigger push of moisture and lift, and HREF guidance is
advertising high probabilities of snowfall rates approaching
1.0 to 1.5" per hour.

Based on latest guidance, the warming aloft is expected to be
enough for primarily freezing rain (but still some sleet)
stretching across southern NH extending E/ENE along the Maine
coast. Flat ice accretion across these areas could reach two
tenths to three tenths of an inch with even higher and more
significant amounts possible across southern NH, especially near
the Monadnocks region to where flat ice accretion may approach
a half inch. To the north, freezing rain is possible toward the
Lakes Region/Augusta areas where a few hundredths up to a tenth
of an inch of ice accretion could occur, but forecast soundings
favor more in the way of sleet, potentially a half inch to an
inch of sleet on top of the snow. Mostly snow is favored the
farther north one goes. An area to watch where ice amounts may
need to be increased is along southern portions of the CT River
Valley.

No changes with the Winter Storm Warnings with the combination
of accumulating snow, sleet and freezing rain. The Winter
Weather Advisory for the Midcoast has been left as is due to the
sleet/freezing rain and lower QPF keeping snow totals lesser,
and forecast freezing rain not reaching criteria.

The responsible negatively tilted 500mb shortwave trough will
lift into northern ME through Sunday evening with the surface
low following and lifting into the Canadian Maritimes through
Sunday night. As this occurs expect precipitation to gradually
come to an end from southwest to northeast south of the
mountains Sunday evening into Sunday the early portion of the
overnight hours. After the primary precip shields exits,
forecast soundings to support the possibility of freezing
drizzle a little longer. Winds will also start to increase as
the gradient tightens and we get some mixing...adding to the
stress of tree limbs and power lines that get more freezing
rain. The incoming colder air/gusty winds will bring wind chills
down into the single digits either side of zero late toward
daybreak Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Once the aforementioned low exits the region, a strong pressure
gradient will form in its wake. The pressure gradient will allow for
a gusty day on Monday, with many places likely seeing gusts of
40 to 50 mph, possibly higher. These strong winds will carry a
threat of bringing down tree limbs and power lines in areas
that receive more in the way of freezing rain accumulations on
Sunday. Gusty winds are likely to continue into Tuesday as well.
Strong northwesterly winds may allow for the development of
light snow showers in the mountains. Snow showers in the
mountains should be light. Unblocked flow, with low- level
relative humidity a little too dry to promote meaningful
snowfall amounts. High pressure arrives on Wednesday with wind
gusts finally relaxing.

On Wednesday, a low developing over the interior southeast US will
move northeastward. Models are uncertain about the specific track of
the low, with ensemble members showing a wide variety of solutions.
At this time, the farthest north ensemble members do bring some
minor snowfall accumulations into southern New Hampshire for
Thursday.  However, most ensemble members keep most of the snow
contained over the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

As the low heads off to sea, high pressure arrives and may allow for
a tranquil next weekend ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Conditions deteriorate to MVFR to IFR and LIFR southwest to
northeast this evening and tonight as snow overspreads the region.
IFR to LIFR restrictions expected to persist on Sunday with precip
type likely changing from snow to FZRA and/or PL in the morning or
across southern NH and then more likely in the early afternoon
across the ME terminals. HIE is expected to stay mostly snow with
sleet mixing in at times and could stay MVFR or even VFR thanks to
downsloping winds. The downsloping winds at HIE could gust up to 40
kt during the day Sunday Conditions will improve Sunday night, but a
period of freezing drizzle before precipitation ends from southwest
to northeast. LLWS may be needed for some terminals Sunday into
Sunday night.

Long Term...Mostly VFR conditions expected Monday morning as a low
exits the region. Some upslope snow showers may temporarily reduce
VIS at HIE. After Tuesday, VFR conditions likely through
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Conditions remain below SCA levels through this
evening, but winds quickly increase overnight tonight and into
Sunday with Gales coming out of the E/NE becoming likely with
approaching low pressure. The low moves across the Gulf of Maine
Sunday evening and then lifts into the Maritimes Sunday night.
This will switch winds to more westerly or southwesterly, and
gales are likely to continue. In addition to the increasing
winds/seas, snow will overspread the waters this evening and
tonight with a period of mixed precipitation Sunday morning into
Sunday afternoon possible.

Long Term...High seas of 5-9ft in the Bays, 9-15ft seas in the
open waters and westerly strong Gale Force winds are likely
Monday and continuing into Tuesday morning. Seas and winds
gradually relax during the day Tuesday, with northwesterly flow
at 15-25kts and 2-6ft seas expected Wednesday morning. Marine
conditions continue to slacken further during the day Wednesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EST
     Monday for MEZ007>009.
     Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EST
     Monday for MEZ012>014-019>021-024-033.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for MEZ018-023.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday
     for MEZ022-025>028.
NH...Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EST
     Monday for NHZ001-002.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NHZ003>015.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ150>154.
     Storm Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

Cannon

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