Wind Advisory 13, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

656 
WWUS72 KGSP 200109
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
909 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

NCZ033-201000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-251020T1000Z/
Avery-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, and Newland
909 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Avery County.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather 
information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found 
at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

NCZ049-050-053-201000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-251020T1000Z/
Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-
909 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY ABOVE 3500 
FEET...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected above 3500 feet.

* WHERE...High elevations of Buncombe, Mitchell, and Yancey Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather 
information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found 
at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

JPT

804 
WWUS72 KGSP 201001
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
601 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025

NCZ033-049-050-053-201115-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-251020T1000Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-
Including the cities of Newland, Banner Elk, and Ingalls
601 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds have diminished across the mountains, so the Advisory has been 
allowed to expire. Wind gusts as high as 35 mph may linger through 
the morning.

$$

RWH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
648 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front arrives today, bringing showers and a few thunderstorms
with it.  Dry and cool conditions return tomorrow and persist
through at least Friday.  Another cold front may increase rain
chances by Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM Sunday: Pre-frontal showers are moving into the area
with TSRA dissipating similar to what the CAMs are forecasting. With
the forecast generally on track, have mainly made tweaks to blend
current conditions into the forecast.

A dynamic upper trough and cold front cross the area late this
afternoon or early evening. A pre-frontal area of widespread showers
will move into the area during the morning. All of the CAMs show the
thunderstorms associated with this area of showers diminishing as
they move east. Can't rule out an isolated storm with this activity.
The CAMs also show more showers and a line of storms moving through
the area through the late afternoon or early evening with the front.

The guidance shows up to 50 kts of shear and quite a bit of helicity
with the second line. Ensemble mean muCAPE is somewhere between 100
and 300 J/kg. There is very little chance of values above 500 J/kg.
This is due to warm air aloft limiting lapse rates initially and
providing somewhat of a cap when lapse rates do steepen slightly.
Forcing will be very strong, so do expect some storms even with the
weak instability. The weak instability should also limit severe
storm potential. That said, with the strong forcing and shear, an
isolated severe storm with damaging winds is possible, especially
over NC where the shear and forcing are stronger. Despite the 2
rounds of convection, the fast moving system and more southwesterly
low level flow, will limit QPF. Amounts will average a quarter of an
inch outside of the mountains. Amounts will range from a quarter of
an inch to 1 inch across the mountains.

The bigger concern could be the gradient wind with the front. While
gusts should remain below Wind Advisory criterion, gusts to 40 mph
will be possible across the higher elevations with gusts of 30 to 30
mph in the valleys. Gusts of 30 to 35 mph will also be possible
outside of the mountains. Highs will be up to 5 degrees below normal
for the NC mountains and foothills and much of the Upstate and NE
GA. Highs will be near normal for the I-77 corridor and the
Lakelands where precip arrives later allowing some heating to take
place.

Skies clear and convection moves east of the area behind the front.
Winds turn NW but remain gusty into the evening before diminishing
outside of the mountains. Lighter gusts will linger across the
mountains overnight. Lows will be around 5 degrees below normal
across the area. This puts portions of the mountains, especially the
higher elevations in frosty temp territory. Winds will likely limit
frost formation for most. However, some cooler more sheltered
valleys, like the Little TN, could see patchy frost.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1235 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry and mostly-clear conditions persist through the period as
high pressure meanders across the region.

2) Low-end fire weather concerns become a potential issue on
Tuesday, though confidence is limited at this time.

Dry and quiet conditions are expected to prevail through the
short term.  By Monday morning, z500 troughing will be centered
well to our north over the Allegheneys, while low-amplitude ridging
settles into the eastern CONUS.  Heights will rise gently over
the Carolinas; despite this, the cooling effect of high pressure
settling into the Southeast will keep high temps a category or
so below normal.  A steady NW breeze should persist through the
day, but generally subside going into the evening.  As a result,
radiative cooling on Monday night should be quite efficient,
allowing lows to drop into the low 40s across the low terrain,
and the upper 30s at higher elevations.

Breezier conditions are expected to develop on Tuesday as the
center of high pressure shifts off the Carolina coast, and a SW
return flow develops across the Carolinas.  Afternoon gusts could
feasibly approach fire danger criteria; however, model profiles
disagree significantly on whether there will be enough moisture atop
the PBL to support the kind of dewpoint mixing needed to result in
dangerously-low RHs.  Highs will climb back above normal within
strengthening WAA, and low-level moisture will begin to increase
by evening, while the next cold front approaches from the northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1256 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry conditions persist through the end of the week, before
another disturbance brings rain chances next weekend.

2) Temperatures generally stay cooler-than-normal through the
period.

No major changes to the long-term forecast.  Surface cold front
should cross the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday, but with
so little prefrontal moisture return that essentially no rain is
expected outside the NC-TN border zones.  Another round of low-level
CAA will develop behind the front, though, and that should be enough
to drive temperatures back below normal through the end of the week.

Long-range ensembles continue to hint at another upper low making
tracks across the southern CONUS on Thursday and Friday, driving
enough moisture into the area to justify a 15-30% PoP by Saturday
and Saturday night.  Having said that, the overall pattern isn't
well-handled just yet, and there's lots of room for changes.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Tricky forecast as a dynamic cold front moves
across the area today. Before the front arrives, Patchy VFR stratocu
and increasing cirrus are expected. S to SW wind slowly increases in
speed. Pre-frontal showers are moving in ahead of the front, along
with gusty S to SW wind, arriving a few hours later at KCLT. Showers
and a line of thunderstorms move through in the afternoon with the
front itself. Have gone with TEMPOs early and PROB30s with the TSRA
chances. Cigs VFR them MVFR with periods of IFR. Vsby restrictions
should be limited to mainly MVFR with the heavier SH/TSRA. Can't
rule out brief IFR vsbys though. Skies clear and convection moves
east with the front during the afternoon and early evening. Winds
turn NW to N behind the front remaining gusty into the evening. LLWS
is possible everywhere but most likely at KCLT and KAVL.

Outlook: Dry high pressure with diminishing winds on Monday. A dry
cold front may bring breezy conditions again on Tuesday lingering
into Wednesday. Dry high pressure returns for Thursday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
336 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-200745-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
336 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A line of showers and a few thunderstorms will develop today and
cross the area from west to east. A few of these storms could become
strong to severe, especially along and north of I-40. The primary
threat with any severe storms will be damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

MPR