Tornado Warning 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

157 
WWUS52 KGSP 161027
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
527 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

GAC119-257-161037-
/O.CAN.KGSP.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250216T1045Z/
Franklin GA-Stephens GA-
527 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND STEPHENS COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 3450 8305 3450 8307 3452 8309 3453 8308
      3453 8310 3456 8312 3456 8314 3458 8316
      3459 8316 3459 8317 3460 8316 3460 8320
      3475 8272 3449 8262 3439 8310
TIME...MOT...LOC 1027Z 252DEG 56KT 3452 8302 

$$

GAC147-SCC007-073-077-161045-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250216T1045Z/
Hart GA-Anderson SC-Pickens SC-Oconee SC-
527 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 AM EST FOR
NORTHWESTERN HART...NORTHWESTERN ANDERSON...SOUTHWESTERN PICKENS AND
SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES...

At 527 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 12 miles south of Seneca, or near Tugaloo State Park,
moving east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Lake Hartwell around 530 AM EST.
  Northlake around 540 AM EST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Fair
Play, Townville, Sandy Springs, and Oakway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by
posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your
message should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3450 8305 3450 8307 3452 8309 3453 8308
      3453 8310 3456 8312 3456 8314 3458 8316
      3459 8316 3459 8317 3460 8316 3460 8320
      3475 8272 3449 8262 3439 8310
TIME...MOT...LOC 1027Z 252DEG 56KT 3452 8302 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

RWH

202 
WWUS52 KGSP 161042
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
542 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

GAC147-SCC007-073-077-161052-
/O.EXP.KGSP.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250216T1045Z/
Hart GA-Anderson SC-Pickens SC-Oconee SC-
542 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HART...NORTHWESTERN
ANDERSON...SOUTHWESTERN PICKENS AND SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 545 AM EST...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3450 8305 3450 8307 3452 8309 3453 8308
      3453 8310 3456 8312 3456 8314 3458 8316
      3459 8316 3459 8317 3460 8316 3460 8320
      3475 8272 3449 8262 3439 8310
TIME...MOT...LOC 1042Z 252DEG 59KT 3459 8277 

$$

RWH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
345 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the area today with showers and perhaps
isolated thunderstorms. Brisk winds develop quickly behind the
front this morning and continue into tonight. Dry high pressure
builds in Monday and lingers through Tuesday. Another low pressure
system crosses the area Wednesday, bringing a chance for wintry
weather. Cold and dry high pressure return late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

1) Areas of dense fog continues across much of the Piedmont, and
a Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through 5 AM this morning.

2) Wind Advisory for the entire CWA in effect from early morning
through the afternoon for gusty winds of 30-40 mph east of the
mountains and 45+ mph in the mountains through early Monday morning.

3) A cold front brings line of showers and thunderstorms across the
forecast area this morning, with a non-zero threat of severe storms.

4) NW flow snow showers along the TN/NC border behind the front
this afternoon through tonight with light accumulations.

As of 330 AM EST Sunday: A weakening QLCS continues to track
across eastern TN and into NE GA. It is estimated to arrive in the
Smokies around 4:30 am. The line is outrunning most of its sfc-based
instability, but with a couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, the line will
likely be able to cross the forecast area. With the limited
instability and the line having to work over a residual wedge, not
expecting much of a severe threat, although isolated damaging wind
gusts cannot be ruled out. Low-level shear along the wedge boundary
could present a non-zero tornado threat across the lower Piedmont
and east in the Charlotte area after daybreak. The 00z HREF shows a
few weak updraft helicity streaks in our far southern zones.
Meanwhile, as the wedge erodes, widespread fog with areas of 1/4sm
vsby continue across the Piedmont. The vsby should improve quickly
as the line of convection and associated cold front rolls thru and
increases mixing. The Dense Fog Advisory may need to be extended
beyond 5 AM for an hour or two for parts of the forecast area.

By late morning, the convection and cold front will push east of
the area, and gusty west to southwest winds will ramp up across the
entire area. With 30-40 kt atop the mixed layer, the Wind Advisory
looks good. Clouds will start to clear out, except lingering
along the TN border due to westerly to west-northwesterly upslope
flow. Guidance is in good agreement on upslope showers turning
from rain to snow fairly quickly this aftn, but snow accums are
expected to be light and mainly on the highest peaks. Temps will
be tricky as they start out so warm in the high terrain, while the
cold wedge air mass will be scoured out by downslope flow, then
strong CAA. Definitely expect falling temps across the mountains
thru the day, while there is bust potential on whether temps will
be able to get into the 60s east of the mountains, as the NBM shows.

Winds should start to decrease, but may remain breezy thru
the evening east of the mountains, while winds may increase
further across the higher terrain, especially in the northern
mountains. So the Wind Advisory continues in the mountains thru
Monday morning. Meanwhile, snow shower activity looks to peak early
in the evening, then gradually taper off overnight. Storm total
snow amounts are highly elevation dependent and generally 1-2"
along the TN border, which is shy of advisory criteria. Temps
will fall tonight into the teens to low 20s in the mountains and
in the mid to upper 20s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EST Sunday: The short term will begin with cool high
pressure building in to the area under strong westerly/zonal flow
aloft, probably still some mountain wave activity leading to some
gusts mixing down in the mountains as we start the period. Highs
Monday and lows Monday night 5 or so degrees below seasonal normals.
Will see some modification to the airmass on Tuesday as the flow
aloft shift slightly more out of the WSW, with highs Tuesday much
closer to seasonal normals.

Meanwhile, a trough will begin to dig out of the Rockies on Tuesday
from a parent cutting off in the Northern Plains by Tuesday night.
Weak southern stream shortwave traversing northern Gulf Coast
underneath right entrance region of the strong upper jet helps to
induce surface cyclogenesis that traverses the Gulf Coast Tuesday
night into Wednesday in a beautiful Miller-A setup. Very strong
(1050mb) Arctic high pressure over the Northern Plains will
primarily ridge south but an arm of ridging will stretch east and
then down the Eastern Seaboard. As moisture from the Gulf low starts
spreading north, insitu damming will reinforce the ridging. All this
leads to a very complicated wintry precip event Wednesday into
Wednesday night.

Ensemble guidance as well as operational models are pointing to a
mainly snow event for the northern tier of counties, but
unsurprisingly uncertainty comes into play the farther south we go.
There is some question as to the depth of moisture as well as
presence/extent of warm nose with CAA aloft around the 850mb western
Atlantic anticyclone. With this current package, temperature
profiles seem to indicate that the highest likelihood of freezing
rain or perhaps sleet would be Wednesday night into early Thursday
as we lose ice nuclei. Different guidance brings snow totals farther
south; e.g., ECMWF more bullish with snow amounts, GFS is more like
what snow? (except for the NC mountains of course). Ensemble members
of each are slightly different but in general there does seem to be
a dividing line around the NC/SC state line. Uncertainty of course
remains quite high on extent of accumulating snow, amounts, how much
ice may (or may not) mix in. Miller-A type systems are typically
less likely to have "mixed bag" p-types with the location of the low
across the coast, so taking pattern recognition into account vs pure
model output, will be interesting to see how the forecast evolves as
we get closer.

For now, temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be mid 30s in the
mountains and I-40 corridor to lower 40s south, but this may be too
high. Well below normal for Wednesday night and with winds picking
up, wind chills in the higher elevations will be dipping below 0
towards daybreak as the front pushes through.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM EST Sunday: Extended starts off unseasonably cold and
breezy on Thursday in the wake of the winter weather event. The
upper low will be passing just to our north across the Mid-Atlantic
states and strong upper gradient will lead to continued mountain
wave activity and gusty winds through the day. Continued
unseasonably cold through the rest of the period with only slight
modification to highs.

Another shortwave moving through on Saturday may bring some wintry
precip to the mountains and cold rain to southern zones, but a bit
too far out to narrow down details on this.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A messy set of TAFs, with LIFR to VLIFR cigs
and vsby expected across the Piedmont until a line of SHRA/TSRA
cross the area early this morning from west to east. The line
is expected to weaken as it enters the area, but may produce
gusty/erratic winds and brief downpours. The line is being handled
with TEMPO groups, as confidence in timing increases. Very strong
SW winds atop an eroding wedge will likely result in non-convective
LLWS at all sites, until the convection arrives. Then gusty SW
winds expected in wake of a passing cold front. Gusts may be
strong, with frequent gusts over 30 kt from late morning thru
the aftn. Cigs and vsby should improve this morning, with skies
clearing out in the aftn. Winds will begin to weaken this evening,
but may remain gusty. At KAVL, SW wind will briefly be out of the
W, then toggle to NNW up the valley by mid-aftn, remaining very
gusty thru the evening.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected Monday thru Tuesday. Then a
quick-moving storm system may bring wintry precip and restrictions
to the region on Wednesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for
     GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NCZ035>037-056-
     057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
     Wind Advisory until noon EST Monday for NCZ033-048>053-058-059-
     062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for
     SCZ008>014-019-101>109.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for SCZ008>014-019-
     101>109.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1203 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-170515-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-
Southern Spartanburg-
1203 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A line of thunderstorms will move across the area early Sunday
morning. A few storms may become strong to severe, with locally
damaging winds and heavy rainfall as the main threats. Though a low
chance, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

A potential winter storm could impact the area Wednesday into
Thursday, bringing a possible wintry mix to most of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-170515-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
1203 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A line of thunderstorms will move across the area early Sunday
morning. A few storms may become strong to severe, with locally
damaging winds and heavy rainfall as the main threats. Though a low
chance, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

A potential winter storm could impact the area Wednesday into
Thursday, bringing a possible wintry mix to most of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
418 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

NCZ051-058-160945-
Graham NC-Swain NC-
418 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SWAIN AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES THROUGH 445 AM EST...

At 418 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Murphy, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Robbinsville, Town Of Santeetlah, Fontana Lake, Fontana Village, Lake
Santeetlah, Smoky Mountains-Twentymile Creek, Smoky Mountains-Fontana
Area, Stecoah, Nantahala, and Tapoco.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 8401 3541 8402 3546 8396 3547 8392
      3552 8388 3553 8382 3556 8377 3529 8358
      3528 8367 3525 8370 3526 8372 3524 8376
      3526 8379 3525 8385 3522 8397 3523 8400
      3531 8402 3531 8404 3535 8404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0918Z 242DEG 46KT 3519 8416

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
439 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

NCZ051-052-058-059-062-063-161015-
Haywood NC-Graham NC-Swain NC-Southern Jackson NC-
Northern Jackson NC-Macon NC-
439 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MACON...JACKSON...SWAIN...EASTERN
GRAHAM AND NORTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 515 AM EST...

At 439 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 16 miles southwest of Gatlinburg to 4 miles
southeast of Hayesville. Movement was east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Sylva, Bryson City, Robbinsville, Cherokee, Cullowhee,
Highlands, Maggie Valley, Balsam, and Webster.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3555 8379 3558 8361 3556 8358 3556 8350
      3566 8335 3566 8330 3573 8324 3572 8320
      3576 8316 3579 8305 3500 8312 3500 8352
      3513 8362 3514 8365 3515 8365 3515 8374
      3524 8369 3526 8371 3524 8375 3525 8381
TIME...MOT...LOC 0939Z 256DEG 49KT 3556 8371 3502 8375

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
450 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ062>064-SCZ101-102-104-105-161015-
Hart GA-Franklin GA-Rabun GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-
Transylvania NC-Southern Jackson NC-Macon NC-Greater Oconee SC-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
450 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT FRANKLIN...STEPHENS...
HABERSHAM...RABUN...WESTERN HART...SOUTHEASTERN MACON...SOUTHWESTERN
TRANSYLVANIA...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...NORTHWESTERN PICKENS AND OCONEE
COUNTIES THROUGH 515 AM EST...

At 450 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles east of Hiawassee to 10 miles
northwest of Homer. Movement was east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Toccoa, Seneca, Walhalla, Clayton, Clarkesville, Carnesville,
Cornelia, Baldwin, Royston, and Westminster.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3427 8312 3424 8317 3425 8334 3446 8340
      3449 8354 3443 8362 3450 8367 3454 8362
      3465 8366 3491 8362 3495 8355 3499 8355
      3500 8348 3504 8356 3528 8278 3455 8292
      3448 8299 3449 8294 3421 8298
TIME...MOT...LOC 0950Z 254DEG 58KT 3498 8356 3443 8365

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RWH