Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
940 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move slowly northeast across the Ohio River
Valley through midweek. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue across our region through Wednesday. Drier high pressure
moves over our area Thursday, followed by a cold front bringing
another round of showers and storms across our region Friday. Above
normal temperatures will continue through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 923 AM Tuesday: The ongoing forecast remains largely on track
this morning as scattered showers continue to push east into the I-
77 corridor. Temperatures have quickly warmed behind the showers and
highs have been nudged up a degree or so across the board.
Otherwise, no major changes were needed.

The next 24 hours will continue to be dominated by the slow
moving mid/upper low passing by to our west/northwest. The
best mid/upper forcing has already moved off to the north and
the remaining forcing looks weak. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery
shows that a mid-level dry slot has already worked its way into
our region as it wraps around the low. Breaks in the overcast this
morning should allow for enough destabilization to quickly form
new showers and thunderstorms by midday. There should be enough
cold air aloft to keep the low levels buoyant, suggesting that a
likely to categorical prob would be appropriate. Severe weather
looks relatively unlikely, but if there's any location that has a
better chance than others it would be the NW Piedmont, at least
that is the indication in the 00Z HREF. The convection will be
driven thermodynamically, so once we lose heating around sunset,
coverage should drop substantially. High temps today will rebound
back toward normal and will remain seasonally mild tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday: The upper low will open into a trough as
it crosses the Ohio Valley Wednesday. The trough axis will cross
the CWFA and provide another day of diurnal scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. Convection should have a decent east
to northeast storm motion, limiting any heavy rain threat. Severe
chances should be low, as well, with generally 1500 J/kg or less
of CAPE. However, with bulk shear around 30 kt, can't rule out
a few strong storms. The trough lifts to the NE on Thursday,
with upper ridge quickly building into the region. This should
result in a mostly dry day with just isolated diurnal mountain
convection. Temperatures will be on a warming trend. Highs will be
near normal Wednesday, and a few degrees above normal Thursday. Lows
will be above normal both Wed and Thu nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 AM Tuesday: An upper ridge over the Southeast will
be flattened somewhat by a passing upper low across the Great
Lakes Friday into Saturday. This will bring a cold front into
the Ohio Valley and result in active weather upstream of the
forecast area. The 00z guidance is not too excited on bringing this
activity into the CWFA. But with westerly to northwesterly steering
flow and good shear along with an axis of strong instability, a
mountain-crossing MCS may be possible. For now, will continue to
solid chance to likely PoPs along the TN border Fri into Fri night,
tapering to just slight chc in the far southeast zones. There is
always a lot of uncertainty on whether conditions will line up for
convection to survive across the mountains and into the Piedmont. In
any case, the better instability looks to shift south and east of
the area Saturday and Sunday, with dry west-northwesterly flow
behind the front. Thicknesses do not fall much, so temps will
remain above normal. Friday looks like the warmest day of the week,
with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 east of the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A busy morning with multiple restrictions and
ceiling/vis variable thru all flight categories thru daybreak. the
immediate concern is the chance for TSRA at KCLT. The radar trend
is downward with the only remaining embedded storm in the rain
band moving toward KCLT moving off to the northwest. Thus, will
keep the TSRA out for now and will amend if necessary. In front
of this band, ceilings remain IFR/LIFR and visby occasionally
reduced. West of the band, the low clouds clear out and we are
mainly VFR with occasionally some IFR/MVFR cloud patches spreading
overhead. The idea in the guidance is that our VFR area will fill
back in thru daybreak as moist upslope continues from the S. Wind
will stay light SE. After daybreak, at locations that don't have a
low cloud, expect rapid cumulus development. The proximity of the
upper low and the cold air aloft will allow quick/early development
of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday starting by midday. This
will be handled with PROB30s. Details are sketchy. The convection
should diminish with the loss of daytime heating.

Outlook: Chances for diurnal scattered showers and storms will
continue through the week. The potential for organized complexes
of thunderstorms to move into the area from the TN and OH Valley
will increase late in the week into the weekend...although much
uncertainty surrounds timing and track of these complexes. Morning
fog and low stratus will be possible each morning...primarily in
the mountain valleys and in areas that receive appreciable rainfall
the previous afternoon/evening.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...PM/TW
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
516 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062-068-SCZ008>014-
019-101-104>109-140930-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Madison-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Cleveland-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
516 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous slow moving thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening could produce heavy downpours that result in elevated stream
levels and some minor flooding of some poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ063>065-507>510-SCZ102-103-140930-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-
516 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina and
Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-035-049-050-501>506-140930-
Avery-Alexander-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
516 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Scattered to numerous slow moving thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening could produce heavy downpours that result in elevated stream
levels and some minor flooding of some poor drainage areas. A few of
the thunderstorms could be strong to severe, with large hail the main
threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ036-037-056-057-069>072-082-140930-
Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-
516 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the western Piedmont of North
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous slow moving thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening could produce heavy downpours that result in elevated stream
levels and some minor flooding of some poor drainage areas. A few of
the thunderstorms could be strong to severe, with large hail the main
threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

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