Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
203 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the area tonight, bringing temperatures back
to near normal for Sunday and Monday under partly cloudy skies. Dry
high pressure builds in Tuesday, then another unsettled pattern
likely develops by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 157 PM EDT Saturday: The obvious concern for the afternoon
is the severe tstm potential, given the Day 1 Outlook Slight Risk
over the eastern third of the fcst area. Got a bit of a late start
with the persistent cloud cover, but enough thin spots exist
to allow for destabilization to the tune of 1000-2000 J/kg of
sfc-based CAPE uncapped. The rapid development of storms that we
have seen early this afternoon suggest that perhaps storms will
release the CAPE and limit the numbers of strong/severe storms,
unlike yesterday. The main area of concern will continue to be the
area east of the mtns, and in particular the I-77 corridor and to
the east, where large hail and damaging wind gusts are the main
concern. Don't be surprised if the SPC issues a Svr Watch for that
area...or not. Either way it will be active. Meanwhile, the western
third of the fcst area will be blanketed by a remnant wide band
of light rain and extensive clouds. Note the HRRR continues to
move this off to the east thru late afternoon and allow for the
redevelopment of showers and storms in a band off to the west,
forced by the mid-level DPVA ahead of a strong short wave. This
could bring a wind threat into the mtns this evening if it comes
together as in the model. Temps will be seasonally warm, but will
nudge the highs down a few degrees because of the cloud cover and
early storms.

Otherwise...instability of the surface-based variety will be
maintained into the evening and first part of the overnight as
lobes of DPVA slide east of I-26 and subtly improve lapse rates
there.  Although sbCAPE itself declines sharply after sunset, the
thinking at this time is that strong enough low-level flow should
be present over the eastern zones to make MLCAPE a better metric
for instability...and as the low- and mid-level kinematics continue
to improve ahead of the front, shear over the eastern third of the
forecast area may even increase, if not remain at their previous
levels, during the late evening and early overnight period.
Thus, severe risk will continue for the eastern zones into the
first part of Saturday night, and a second wave of convection is
expected during this timeframe with a semi-organized QLCS makes
tracks across the area leading up to midnight.  A separate issue
during this timeframe will be the increasing risk of localized flash
flooding along the I-77 corridor...where soundings depict almost
(but not quite) boundary-parallel shear vectors.  Moisture will
have had all day to pile up here, with PWs as high as 1.4-1.5"...or
somewhere in the 90th to 95th percentile of NAEFS climatology.
Despite this, the bulk of hi-res guidance doesn't depict especially
impressive QPF response (perhaps because the system's overall motion
is still fast enough to prevent it), with the 00z HREF keeping
6-hour totals just a hair under 2" across the I-77 corridor...and
so no flood watch appears necessary, as these totals would keep
flooding issues isolated and localized enough not to justify it.
All in all, the frontal boundary should finally push things east of
the CWA by the wee hours of Sunday morning, resulting in markedly
decreasing PoP and an end to both the severe and heavy rain threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of Noon Saturday...

Key messages:

1. Isolated/scattered showers will be possible Monday near the
TN border.

2. Otherwise, Dry thru Tuesday, with temps around or a little
below normal.

An upper low will spin over the Ohio Valley Monday, and begin to
drift northeast toward the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday. The low's
proximity may allow for some instability and isolated to scattered
diurnal showers along/near the TN border Monday aftn. The rest of
the forecast area will see mostly sunny skies and temps will be
a category or two below normal.

Tuesday looks dry, as the low drifts away, and a west-east axis of
sfc high pressure builds in on the south side of the low. Temps
return to near normal under mostly sunny skies and comfortable
humidity levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of Noon Saturday...

Models are in decent agreement on the pattern thru the medium
range. They have converged on another upper low cutting off...this
time over the Ozarks region, then drifting southeast into the Lower
MS Valley. A deep trough is progged to dig thru the Northeast,
and may interact with this low, but the latest GFS and ECMWF keep
the southern low spinning thru the weekend in a Rex block. This will
likely set up an unsettled wx pattern for the forecast area starting
Wednesday. An area of sfc low pres will form over the Lower MS
Valley and activate a warm front across the Southeast. Gulf moisture
will spread over the front and produce areas of showers off and on
thru Friday. There will be some diurnal component to the activity,
but there may some shower chances continuing at night. At this
point, it doesn't look like a heavy rain/flood threat, but locally
heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out. Severe chances will also be
muted with generally elevated CAPE and marginal bulk shear. Max
temps will be near to slightly below normal, while lows will
generally be a few degrees above normal under plenty of cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The immediate concern is the TSRA around
KCLT for the first hour of the fcst, after which there should be
a lull of a few hours before the next round. Meanwhile, scattered
tsra will develop east of the mtns thru the afternoon, which will
be covered by a TEMPO group. Expect prevailing VFR and temporary
MVFR low cloud ceilings around storms. Wind should remain light S
to SSW in general, gusty near storms. Meanwhile, across the mtns,
a band of weakening light rain will slowly diminish as it moves
east. Model guidance fires up another batch of thunderstorms late
this afternoon and early this evening over the east, suggesting
another TEMPO for KCLT. Late tonight, a second weakening band of
remnant convection is expected to move in from the west, which will
be covered with a PROB30. MVFR to IFR ceiling is expected with that
feature. The low levels will remain juicy, thus the restrictions
will persist into the late morning. Light S winds should prevail.

Outlook: Unsettled weather and associated restrictions may
continue into early Sunday across parts of the area. In the wake
of a cold front after dawn Sunday, drier weather and predominately
VFR conditions are expected to return.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...MPR/PM
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
519 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-040930-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
519 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will pose a risk of severe weather at times this
afternoon through around midnight, in the form of damaging wind
gusts and large hail. Multiple rounds of storms are possible at a
given location. Some localized flash flooding is also possible,
particularly in areas that experience more than one round of heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

Wimberley

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
202 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

SCZ011-019-031830-
Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-
202 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN ABBEVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

At 201 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Abbeville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hodges, Donalds, Abbeville, Shoals Junction, Cokesbury, Due West,
Ware Shoals, and Lake Greenwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3408 8237 3415 8250 3442 8233 3435 8217
      3433 8217 3433 8215 3432 8213 3431 8212
      3431 8211 3430 8209
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 212DEG 28KT 3417 8236

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ARK