Severe Thunderstorm Warning 247, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
151 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A moist cold front will bring scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms to our area this afternoon and evening. A few strong
to severe storms are possible. Cooler and drier weather returns on
Sunday and lingers through most of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Saturday: A broad area of showers with embedded
thunderstorms is slowly moving into the mountains at this time. This
convection will steadily spread across the area into the early
evening, moving east by midnight. Mesoanalysis shows sbCAPE greater
than 1500 J/kg for most of the area with effective bulk shear in the
30 kt range. Low level lapse rates are increasing and DCAPE is
generally 700 J/kg or greater along and south of the I-85 corridor.
Therefore, expect a better chance of semi-organized severe storms in
that area. That said, an isolated strong to severe storm is possible
north of I-85, especially as the storms initially move in. Damaging
winds are the main threat, but some marginally large hail is also
possible.

Winds shift to the N to NE overnight behind the departing cold front
as high pressure builds in from the north. Low level moisture also
increases on this flow leading to cloudy skies. Fog is also
possible, especially in the normally more foggy areas. Lows will be
near normal.

Low level moisture lingers across the area in the northeasterly flow
even as high pressure continues to build in. This will keep low
clouds across the area through the morning. Isolated to perhaps
scattered showers and a few storms will be possible in this moist
flow. Highs will show close to a 10 degree NE to SW gradient across
the area also due to the high pressure building in. Highs will range
from 5 to 10 degrees below normal with the warmest readings along
the Upper Savannah River Valley into the normally warmer NC mountain
valleys west of the French Broad.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1:35 PM EDT Saturday: The short-term fcst picks up at 00z on
Monday with long-wave upper trofing centered just to our north while
broad upper ridging covers the western CONUS. Over the next couple
of days, the upper trof will lift northward with heights rebounding
over our area. At the sfc, robust high pressure will be spreading
over the Southeast as the period begins late Sunday bringing cooler
and drier air for the rest of the period with no significant precip
chances for our fcst area. Temperatures are expected to remain 5 to
10 degrees below climatology thru the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1:15 PM EDT Saturday: The extended fcst picks up at 00z on
Wednesday with broad upper trofing having retreated northward as
heights rebound over our area. Over the next few days, the large-
scale pattern will amplify again as upper trofing digs down over
New England and stout upper ridging persists to our west over the
central CONUS. At the sfc, broad high pressure will be centered
well to our NE over the Nova Scotia area but still covering most
of the eastern CONUS. On Wednesday, the high will slide further
NE while a weak sfc low tries to develop within the baroclinic
zone just off the SE Coast. Most of the current long-range guidance
has this weak low move up the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday and
Thursday, while its associated deeper moisture remains just east
of our fcst area. Another robust high is then expected to migrate
southward from Canada by late week and spread another round of drier
air back over the Southeast. Overall, the sensible fcst remains
largely unchanged. We can expect cool and mostly dry conditions
thru the period. Temperatures are expected to warm on Wednesday
and Thursday but still remain a few degrees below climatology.
They will cool again by the end of period as the next round of
high pressure spreads over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A broad area of showers with embedded
thunderstorms will move into the area ahead of a cold front this
afternoon and cross the area into early evening. The period of
convection could be somewhat prolonged, with multiple rounds of
storms, even if direct impacts at the airfields will be relatively
brief associated with individual cells. Therefore, have kept the
PROB30 instead of a TEMPO for all sites to show the broader timing
potential. SW winds, NW at KAVl, may have some low end gusts ahead
of the front. Winds turn N to NE behind the front late this evening
and overnight. MVFR stratocu develops overnight in the developing
moist northeasterly flow. IFR is likely at KAVL and possible at
KHKY. Any vsby restrictions should end by 14Z but MVFR cigs will
linger until at least 16Z and could go longer. Some showers are also
possible in the moist NE flow which could prompt additional
restrictions. N to NE winds continue through the day.

Outlook: Dry high pressure is expected into the middle of next week.
Fog and/or low stratus is possible each morning, especially in the
favored mountain valleys.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
140 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-071745-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
140 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and the
western Carolinas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early evening ahead of
a cold front. A few isolated severe storms may develop with the main
hazard being brief damaging wind gusts. However, isolated large hail
will also be possible. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall may lead
to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

AR

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