Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
227 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry high pressure controls our weather through Wednesday
night.  Seasonably hot and humid weather returns late in the week
with numerous showers and storms each afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday: A weak boundary was located on the east slopes
of the mtns early this afternoon was providing a little bit of focus
for storm development. We've managed to develop 1000-2000 J/kg of
sfc-based CAPE along and S/E of that boundary. The main concern
once again will be severe thunderstorms, with the SPC having
expanded the Day 1 Marginal Risk across most of the area along
and S/E of I-85. There's a non-zero risk of damaging wind gusts
and small hail, with a few of the CAMs developing a multicell or
two into a linear feature, which seems reasonable given effective
shear of 20-25 kt. Just enough to work with for some organized
strong storms. Lapse rates are a bit more favorable but there's
not as much dry air aloft, so maybe today would be more of a
hail risk. The western Piedmont has maybe 800 J/kg of dCAPE or
thereabouts, so if a stronger storm develops there, wind damage
would be a higher risk. Temps look ok.

The boundary should gradually push off to the southeast this evening
as the mid level trof axis moves overhead from the west. That,
combined with the loss of daytime heating, should bring an end to
the storm threat as it moves out of the fcst area. Some drier air
will attempt to move in behind the boundary overnight with a high
pressure air mass settling over the OH Valley/central Appalachians
by daybreak Wednesday. Can't rule out the mountain valley fog. For
Wednesday, not much temperature change, but the humidity should
be a bit lower, which will be nice. Closer proximity to lingering
moisture to our east may permit a few showers on our eastern border
in the afternoon, and an isolated shower over the Balsams would
not be a surprise, but most places will stay sunny and rain-free.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM Tue: Mid level ridging will be in place across the
region for the short term period. This will lead to a typical early
summer pattern across the region with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected mainly during the afternoon and evening
hours. Highs and lows during this period will be slightly above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Tue: The mid level ridging will be gradually suppressed
to the south over the weekend into early next week. This will allow
a more active storm pattern with a few weak disturbances pushing
through the area. Thus, pops will be higher and dewpoints will climb
toward 70 outside the mountains during this period. Temperatures
will remain slightly above normal for highs, but trend toward about
5 degrees above normal for overnight lows.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Most places should be VFR for the remainder
of the afternoon outside of showers and thunderstorms, which were
developing across the mtns and foothills at issuance time. Will
include a TEMPO everywhere but HKY and CLT because of the radar
trend. Will keep it out of KHKY because buoyancy is lacking, and
will put PROB30 at KCLT because of poor continuity in HRRR. Wind
will be light SW, but variable and gusty near storm outflows. The
clouds should tend to dissipate with the loss of heating around
sunset, by which time a weak cold front should push east of the
fcst area, but will not be very recognizable because of the light
winds. Overnight, the wind should go light/variable and only high
clouds will remain. Drier air will move in behind the front for
Wednesday, so only some scattered cu can be expected. Wind planned
to be light NE with high pressure to our north.

Outlook: VFR should continue through Wednesday night. Mainly
diurnal thunderstorms return Thursday and will persist each
afternoon/evening into the weekend. There will be potential for late
night and early morning fog and low stratus restrictions each day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
452 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ101>103-112100-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
452 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ008>014-019-104>109-112100-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
452 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will track
east across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and Northeast Georgia
through the evening. A couple of strong to severe storms will be
possible, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
338 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

NCZ508-510-102015-
Greater Rutherford NC-Eastern Polk NC-
338 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND
EAST CENTRAL POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

At 338 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Columbus, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rutherfordton, Spindale, and Mill Spring.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3526 8219 3533 8218 3536 8190 3521 8191
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 275DEG 19KT 3530 8210

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
500 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

NCZ056-069-102130-
Lincoln NC-Catawba NC-
500 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA AND
NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

At 500 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Newton, or near Denver, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Denver, Westport, Lake Norman, Sherrills Ford, Terrell, and Bandys.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3561 8094 3559 8093 3558 8095 3557 8096
      3555 8095 3555 8096 3553 8094 3553 8095
      3550 8096 3555 8118 3566 8114 3564 8095
      3562 8092
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 278DEG 16KT 3558 8108

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Lane