Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
221 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure builds across our region through mid week with
temperatures near normal or a little above normal.  Moisture
increases late in the week as well as the humidity.  Expect
scattered to numerous showers and storms especially over the
mountains at the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 PM: East-west oriented weak convergence axis is analyzed
across western NC at this hour in advance of a cold front across
KY/VA, which will sag slowly southward into the area through
tonight. Moisture pooling along/ahead of the front has led to
development of several hundred J/kg of SBCAPE and a stratocu field,
within which some showers have formed since noon. On satellite
the clouds do not appear to have much vertical development which
may be a reflection of a warm midlevel layer. Nevertheless CAM
consensus suggests shower coverage will increase across mainly our
NC zones and northern tier of SC zones thru late afternoon. Westerly
steering flow and the associated slow southward movement of the
frontal zone suggests minimal coverage in areas further south and
so PoPs are unmentionably low across the Lakelands and most of NE
GA this afternoon. 25-35 kt of effective shear and modest DCAPE
could be enough to support multicell convection a producing severe
wind threat and perhaps marginally severe hail. SPC retains Day
1 marginal risk across basically all areas where we mention PoP.

Convection will diminish diurnally and winds will turn northerly
overnight across most of the area behind the front. This should
preclude any morning fog across the NC Piedmont, although if
showers develop near mountain valleys, those could have sufficient
moisture for fog near daybreak. Also seeing a signal for fog along
the lower Broad River of the Upstate, although that is less certain
with sfc moisture not likely enhanced by showers today. Mins will
be a few degrees below normal.

Mostly sunny Monday with light northeasterly winds. Subsidence is
expected to cap off deep convection and keep PoPs near zero over
most areas; can't absolutely rule out a shower developing over
the Blue Ridge Escarpment SW of Asheville, but PoP remains less
than 10% there. Highs near or slightly warmer than today's values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Sunday: Very quiet weather expected Tuesday and
Wednesday, as an upper ridge builds along the East Coast, and a
dry and mild high pressure settles over the Mid-Atlantic. Generally
clear or mostly clear skies, light wind and comfortable dewpts can
be expected thru the short term. Overall, temps will be within 3
deg of normal. Lows will be mainly in the 50s to lower 60s, and
highs lower to mid 80s in the lower mountain valleys, foothills,
and Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday: The latest medium range guidance is
in decent agreement on the upper ridge gradually flattening out
along the East Coast, as a series of shortwaves track thru the
northern stream. A weak tropical wave is still progged to drift
north from FL along the Carolina coast. Given the better model
agreement, the NBM has increased PoPs into the chc range in our
SE zones Thursday. But overall, the bulk of the precip associated
with this wave will stay east of the CWFA. With increased easterly
flow and cloud cover, Thursday's highs have trended down slightly,
but still a couple degrees above normal. Meanwhile, guidance has
trended slower with an approaching cold front from the NW, with a
slight downward trend in Friday's PoPs. Still expect an increasing
SWLY flow to allow for scattered diurnal showers and storms. Highs
will be a few degrees above normal.

Zonal upper flow pattern is expected over the weekend, with a
frontal boundary stalling out across the Southeast. This should
result in above climo PoPs that may continue into early next
week. Temps will continue to be slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A few SHRA/TSRA will develop this afternoon
and early evening mainly across western NC in unstable airmass
preceding a cold front. PROB30 for TSRA at KCLT/KAVL/KHKY as
a result, with MVFR possible with any storm. Chance too low to
mention at the SC sites. VFR cu field seen otherwise. Excepting
KAVL, mainly SW winds this aftn with some gusts to near 20 kt
possible. Front will move south into the terminal area tonight;
winds will be light overnight but will veer, coming up from N to
NE after daybreak. KAVL bears chance of at least MVFR fog near
daybreak, particularly if SHRA do develop there this aftn. Winds
may veer to ESE at KCLT by late Mon aftn, but confidence too low
to warrant another line this far out.

Outlook: Dry high pressure and VFR conditions through
Wednesday. Diurnal convection may return by Thursday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...Wimberley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
633 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-021045-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
633 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A stationary front draped across the area today brings a chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening.
One or two storms may become strong to severe with large hail and
damaging wind gusts as the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
337 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

NCZ057-072-012000-
Rowan NC-Cabarrus NC-
337 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CABARRUS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

At 336 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles east of Kannapolis, or 5 miles southeast of China Grove, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gold Hill, Mt Pleasant, China Grove, Rockwell, Landis, and
Kannapolis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 8065 3559 8058 3555 8028 3537 8041
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 285DEG 19KT 3552 8052

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MPR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
447 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

NCZ070-071-012115-
Gaston NC-Mecklenburg NC-
447 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MECKLENBURG AND
SOUTHEASTERN GASTON COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

At 447 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Uptown Charlotte, or near Paw Creek, moving east at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Northwest Charlotte, Freedom Park, The Plaza, Charlotte Douglas
Airport, Belmont, Central Charlotte, Uptown Charlotte, Mt Holly,
Croft, and Northeast Charlotte.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3520 8112 3531 8114 3540 8076 3516 8072
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 263DEG 27KT 3527 8099

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MPR

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