Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
615 AM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low relative humidity and occasional gusty winds will enhance the
fire danger across the area for much of the week. A cold front
crosses the region on Thursday producing a quick shot of showers,
with some high elevation snow showers expected late Thursday
before conditions dry out again on Friday. The next significant
chance for rain will be early next week when another front is
expected to impact the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 610 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Critical RHs and Breezy SW Winds Will Lead to Increased Fire
Danger Across Western North Carolina and Northeast Georgia this
Afternoon and Early Evening

2) Warmest Day of the Week Expected Today with Highs Climbing 10-15
Degrees Above Normal

3) A Weak Cold Front Tracks Across the Forecast Area Late Tonight
Bringing Scattered Rain Showers

No major changes were needed as the forecast remains on track.
Scattered to broken cirrus continue streaming across the western
zones with clear skies to a few cirrus across the eastern zones this
morning. Cloud cover and W/WSW'ly flow overnight only allowed temps
to drop into the 40s across most locations, although the mid 30s are
noted across the mountain valleys this morning.

Upper cirrus will continue streaming across the area today with dry
conditions continuing ahead of a weak cold front approaching out of
the west. Increasing SW'ly flow ahead of the front allow highs to
warm ~10-15 degrees above normal. Today will be the warmest day of
the week with temps climbing into the mid to upper 70s east of the
mountains and across the mountain valleys. SW wind gusts will
develop by early this afternoon, ranging from 15-25 mph east of the
mountains and 20-35 mph across the mountains. Warm temps and dry
conditions will allow dewpoints to crash again this afternoon,
leading to critically low RH values ranging from 10% to 20% across
much of the forecast area. Avery County and areas along the southern
Blue Ridge Escarpment will see slightly higher RH values this
afternoon, ranging from 20% to 25%. Low RH combined with breezy
winds will increase fire wx concerns this afternoon and early
evening. Thus, an SPS for Increased Fire Danger remains in place
across western North Carolina and northeast Georgia from noon to 8pm
this evening per coordination with land managers.

SW wind gusts will increase slightly this evening into tonight ahead
of the main frontal boundary but are expected to remain below Wind
Advisory Criteria (less than 45 mph). A broken line of light to
moderate rain showers track across the forecast area from west to
east overnight into daybreak Thursday ahead of the front. Rain
timing for the western zones looks to be from roughly ~3am-7am
Thursday with the eastern zones seeing rain starting ~7am-8am
Thursday. Rain will keep pushing across the forecast area into the
short term (see the short term discussion below). With very little,
if any, instability developing, no thunder is expected with the
shower activity overnight. Cloud cover will gradually increase from
west to east with the shower activity overnight, becoming broken to
overcast by daybreak Thursday. Both rain and cloud cover will limit
radiational cooling, allows lows tonight to end up ~10-15 degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 am EDT Wednesday: Cold front is expected to be roughly
bisecting the forecast area at the start of the period, accompanied
by increasingly ragged shower band due to rather meager moisture
transport and weakening deep-layer forcing. PoPs across the Piedmont
and foothills are generally in the 30-50% range, with some likelies
in northern areas. Otherwise, very gusty winds are expected in the
vicinity of and especially behind the front in strong cold advection
regime. As the deep upper trough crosses the region during the
afternoon, the potential for another round of showers...mainly
impacting the NC mountains will increase, with showers persisting
into Thursday evening as more of a NW flow/upslope regime becomes
established, with snow developing across mainly the high elevations
Thu afternoon, when ingredients become quite respectable for
accumulating snow showers for a few hours. Fairly deep moisture with
temps as cold as -10C in the moist layer will combine with strong
upslope lift to likely produce several inches above 4500 feet or so
along the TN border, especially the Smokies. Showers may also
transition to show in the valleys, but will be brief with
little-to-no accumulation expected.

Otherwise, NW surface winds are expected to accelerate Thu night in
the wake of the upper trough, as deep and strong NW flow (over 50
kts at H8) establish a strong mountain wave signal. At least a Wind
Advisory will probably be needed for this time frame for the usual
downslope areas along and near the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment.
Winds diminish into Friday, but a return of very dry conditions...
with minimum RH in the 15-20% range is expected during the
afternoon, and with modest-at-best rainfall expected
tonight/Thursday, fuels will quickly dry out and fire danger will be
enhanced Fri afternoon. Temperatures will generally be around normal
through the period, except for 5-10 degrees below normal Thu night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 340 am EDT Wednesday: The upper air pattern will remain quite
active across the East into the medium range, albeit somewhat
deceptively so, as persistence of a dry air mass will result in
little-to-no impacts in terms of precipitation/convection across our
area as a couple of short wave troughs pass near the CWA. The first
of these features will be a dampening wave that passes from the
central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic Saturday with no
precipitation fanfare. However, it will further enhance the fire
danger across our area, as winds become gusty in response, while
afternoon RH will again be very low. Overlap of critical wind and RH
is possible for at least a couple of hours on Saturday. Winds
diminish a bit for Sunday, but conditions will remain very dry.

The next, more significant upper air disturbance is expected to
impact the region in the Sunday night/Monday time frame, with
accompanying cold front and precip frontal band expected to sweep
into the southern Appalachians Monday morning. Current indications
are that moisture transport and forcing will be sufficient to
provide better chances for precipitation. However, the front will be
in the process of occluding, while upper air support is expected to
pass north of the area, so a significant precip event is looking very
unlikely at this time. Conditions are again expected to become very
dry by Tuesday.

The dry weather will result in large diurnal temperature ranges
during the first half of the period, with maxes expected to be 5-10
degrees above climo, and lows right around normal. High temps are
expected to return closer to normal in the wake of the front
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR across the terminals through
late tonight. Winds will remain light and S'ly to calm through early
this morning. Wind direction will remain S/SW through the 12Z TAF
period. Wind speeds gradually increase later today with low-end
gusts develop during the afternoon hours. Gusts may diminish briefly
early this evening before returning late this evening ahead of an
approaching cold front. Winds and gusts will increase slightly
overnight into early Thursday morning as a cold front approaches out
of the west. LLWS will develop overnight ahead of the front at KAVL
and KHKY before diminishing prior to daybreak Thursday. The front
will also push a broken line of scattered -SHRA across the terminals
overnight into early Thursday with the potential for brief MVFR cigs
to develop. Thus, introduced PROB30s for -SHRA and associated
restrictions towards the end of the 12Z TAF period.

Outlook: Gusty winds linger into Thursday night behind a departing
cold front. Dry high pressure and VFR return Friday, lingering into
the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Increased Fire Danger from noon EDT today through this evening
     for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...Increased Fire Danger from noon EDT today through this evening
     for NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
     501>510.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
529 AM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025

SCZ008>014-019-101>109-200930-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
529 AM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-200930-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
529 AM EDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina and western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Increased Fire Danger.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Lane