Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
810 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the mountains tonight then becoming
stationary across Georgia and the Carolinas continuing the chance of
showers and storms mainly for the Piedmont on Wednesday. Another
cold front drops south from the Great Lakes on Thursday with drier
weather for the Independence Day holiday weekend. Temperatures
remain typical for the summertime season through the beginning of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 155 PM: An upper trough and cold front move into the area
tonight and stall or only slowly move south of the area by
Wednesday. Convection already ongoing across the area and will
become more widespread than the past few days. Mesoanalysis shows
the atmos has become very unstable despite only moderate to weak mid
level lapse rates. Bulk shear, while higher than the past few days,
remains less then 20 kts, and DCAPE values are moderate across
portions of the area. All this to say that isolated severe
downbursts will be possible where storms can grow tall enough, but
there could be some weak organization given the slightly stronger
shear. PW values remain very high as well. Although storms will have
more movement than the past few days, locally excessive rainfall is
possible given the greater storm coverage and the potential for
training and back-building cells. Convection diminishes by late
evening or early overnight, but isolated showers could continue. Low
clouds and patchy fog expected once again by morning. Lows will be a
little above normal.

Scattered to numerous convection is expected to develop on Wednesday
with the stalled or slowly moving trough/front. However, better
coverage flips from the past few days and will be greater along the
I-77 corridor becoming more scattered across the mountains. At least
moderate instability and around 20 kts of bulk shear will combine
with a rebound in DCAPE and sfc delta theta-e to create the
potential for an isolated damaging downburst. Higher PW values are
shunted off to the east and faster moving cells will limit heavy
rain potential. Highs will be a couple of degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday: An upper trough axis will exit off the East
Coast Thursday, as a large ridge builds in across the center of
the CONUS. A cold front should finish pushing thru the area,
with lingering showers and storms possible Wednesday evening
in the southeast part of the forecast area. PoPs should taper
off by daybreak Thursday. With the ridge building in and dry air
advecting in from the NW, Thursday and Friday (Independence Day)
look dry. Cannot rule out a stray shower or general tstm along
some of the highest ridgetops of the NC mountains, but otherwise
should be dry. Temps will warm to slightly above normal, with
highs mainly in the lower to mid 90s in the Piedmont and mid to
upper 80s in the lower mountain valleys. Lows in 60s mountains
and upper 60s to lower 70s Piedmont. The dewpts are expected to
mix out enough to keep heat indices close to the ambient temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Tuesday: Relatively dry weather continues into the
weekend, as an upper ridge slides from the Mid-MS Valley east
to the Mid-Atlantic. This will keep the forecast area fairly
suppressed. But with strong mid-summer heating each day, a gradual
increase in mainly mountain convection is expected Saturday
thru Monday. The medium range guidance is becoming a little more
bullish on developing a weak tropical low along a stalled frontal
boundary invof FL over the weekend. This disturbance is likely
to remain shunted south of the forecast area, but may drift NE
into the Atlantic. There is a lot of uncertainty on that, as it
depends on exactly where along the front it develops and how long
the upper ridge can hold on over the Mid-Atlantic. The ridge is
expected to weaken/shift east late in the weekend thru early next
week, as shortwave energy carves a flat trough over the Upper
Midwest. Overall, this should allow for a return to near-climo
diurnal PoPs by next Tuesday. Temps will continue to be slightly
above normal thru the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Ongoing convection across the area has led to
an extended period of TEMPOs for TSRA and associated restrictions
through 02Z-03Z. Winds generally out of the southwest, but direction
may become variable and gustier with any direct hit from
thunderstorms. Lingering showers will be possible going into the
overnight hours with convective debris still hanging out. Model
guidance continue to keen in on low stratus and possible fog
developing just before daybreak. Placed a prevailing IFR cig at all
sites, with MVFR vsby at KAND/KHKY/KAVL due to either mountain
valley enhancement or close proximity to bodies of water. Any
restrictions that develop should scatter out by mid-morning with
daytime heating and mixing commencing. Another round of convection
is possible at the Piedmont terminals and placed a PROB30 for TSRA
and associated restrictions between 18Z Wednesday - 00Z Thursday.
Winds will remain southwesterly through most of the forecast period
before a cold front advances through the area by the very end of the
period or slightly after, leading to a wind shift out of the
northwest by Wednesday evening. KAVL will maintain a northwesterly
wind with possible low-end gusts through the period.

Outlook: Convection continues Wed evening. Drier air moving in
Thursday is expected to inhibit diurnal convection into the weekend,
with at most isolated activity expected each day. Fog and/or low
stratus possible each morning in the usual mountain valleys, as well
as near lakes and rivers, and where significant rain fell the day
before.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CAC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
336 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-020745-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
336 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A cold front approaches the are bringing showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and into tonight. A few could become severe. Hazards
include damaging winds and torrential rainfall, which could lead to
isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
829 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

NCZ035-036-056-068-069-504-020115-
Iredell NC-Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-Greater Burke NC-Alexander NC-
Catawba NC-
829 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CATAWBA...SOUTHWESTERN
ALEXANDER...NORTHERN LINCOLN...SOUTHWESTERN IREDELL...NORTH CENTRAL
CLEVELAND AND SOUTHEASTERN BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

At 828 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Newton, or 6 miles south of Mountain View, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hickory, Newton, Lincolnton, St. Stephens, Conover, Longview,
Bethlehem, Maiden, Hildebran, and Claremont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near Lake Norman, Lookout Shoals Lake, or Lake Hickory, get
out of the water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember,
lightning can strike out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm.
If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by
lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water
in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3569 8100 3553 8093 3548 8114 3544 8151
      3560 8156 3582 8130 3588 8112
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 244DEG 20KT 3559 8138

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JRK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
840 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 S Inman               35.02N 82.09W
07/01/2025                   Spartanburg        SC   Utility Company

            Downed trees or limbs caused power outages
            on Data Bush Dr. Time estimated from radar.

&&

JRK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
908 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

NCZ070-071-SCZ009-020145-
Gaston NC-Mecklenburg NC-York SC-
908 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG...
SOUTHEASTERN GASTON AND CENTRAL YORK COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

At 907 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
York, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gastonia, York, Rock Hill, Fort Mill, Belmont, South Gastonia, Tega
Cay, Clover, Newport, and Cramerton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Heavy downpours are also occurring with these storms and may lead to
ponding of water on roadways. Slow down and use extra caution while
driving.

&&

LAT...LON 3491 8117 3491 8145 3497 8149 3507 8139
      3518 8125 3533 8115 3528 8099 3497 8088
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 245DEG 32KT 3503 8128

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JRK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
913 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

NCZ035>037-057-020200-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Iredell NC-Alexander NC-
913 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN DAVIE...EASTERN
ALEXANDER...IREDELL AND NORTHWESTERN ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM
EDT...

At 913 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 4 miles northeast of
Taylorsville to near Statesville. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Statesville, Mocksville, Taylorsville, Troutman, Stony Point,
Cooleemee, Cleveland, Harmony, Love Valley, and Hiddenite.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3583 8046 3584 8048 3580 8047 3576 8051
      3565 8089 3589 8118 3598 8126 3604 8119
      3603 8117 3604 8113 3603 8107 3606 8098
      3605 8065 3583 8042
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 236DEG 20KT 3597 8114 3574 8089

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JRK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
935 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ESE Berea             34.87N 82.44W
07/01/2025                   Greenville         SC   Utility Company

            Power outage attributed to fallen trees or
            limbs at W Parker Rd and W Marion St. Time
            estimated.

&&

Wimberley

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
936 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Earl                35.19N 81.51W
07/01/2025                   Cleveland          NC   911 Call Center

            911 Communications reported a tree blocking
            roadway on Lavender Road.

&&