Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1258 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers with mild temps Today

- Winter Weather with impacts possible Wednesday through Thursday

- Cold weather ahead through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

- Rain showers with mild temps Today

Short wave trough will continue mid southwesterly flow through the
daytime with warmer, moister air moving across Michigan. This will
bring more widespread rain showers today, with mild temps around
50 this afternoon.

- Winter Weather with impacts possible Wednesday through Thursday

A large upper level low remains on track to move through the
upper midwest and move across Michigan Wednesday through
Thanksgiving. Models remain consistent on the track and timing of
the system. Strong northwesterly flow will stream across the lake
with ECMWF showing wind gusts means at MKG and LDM between 50 to
60 mph. Several other guidances remain lower. Have held off on
any headlines though at least an advsy will probably be needed.

 Steep drop in temps should occur early Wednesday with temps
dropping. 850 mp temps as low as -9C will be overhead with strong
omega values pulling in lakeshore moisture, aiding in snow shower
rates.
 CAMS are hinting on strong frontogenetic forcing along the I 94
corridor, especially in the Kalamazoo, Battle Creek area westward
with decent CAPE for this time of year. Two areas of higher
snowfall rates are shaping up. The first is through the Northwest
corner of the region, East of Ludington and north of Big Rapids.
The strong winds, good SLR's and above mention Omega, which is a
good indicator of lake enhancement, means higher snowfall totals
will be possible Wednesday night through at least the first half
of Thanksgiving. Due to this potential have issued a Winter Storm
Watch along the US 10 corridor.

 The second location in in and around the Kalamazoo area. This
potential remains more tenuous, hence the lack of a headline.
However, the previously mentioned dynamics, the lake enhancement
and the persistent, long period of snow bands through Thursday
afternoon could allow for decent snow accumulations. The factors
that could alter this outcome remains the winds, warmer ground
temps and when the rain transitions to snow. The best timeframe
for snow will be between 22Z Wednesday to 12Z Thursday. During
this timeframe there will be  around a DGZ 5KFT deep with temps
of
-10 to -18C. Those conditions are prime for dendritic growth. So
 will have to watch to see if these conditions persist. Either
 way, impacts to holiday travel are expected Wednesday afternoon
 through Thanksgiving.

- Cold weather ahead through the weekend

H8 temperatures will be near -12c Thursday through Friday. That
creates high instability over the lake. A strong short wave
moving through the upper trough will result in lake effect snow
showers on Thanksgiving and will continue into Thursday night
before diminishing Friday when drier air begins to flow over the
lake.

The next system from the southern stream will arrive Saturday.
Given the cold air in place the precipitation will begin as snow
but then mix with rain Sunday. We'll like see some snow
accumulation with that system as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

IFR/LIFR will be prevalent into late tonight with low ceilings and
areas of light drizzle and mist. Winds will not be much of a
factor until the arrival of a cold front with a broken line of
rain showers moving from southwest to central Lower Michigan
between 06 and 12 Z. Increasingly strong and gusty southwest
becoming west winds will occur during the day Wed, as
southwest/south-central Michigan will be just south of a strong
low-pressure cyclone. Lake enhanced rain/snow mix changing to
snow during the day Wed will keep visibility and ceilings variable
from low-MVFR to IFR through Wed evening, occurring with peak
gusts greater than 35 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

DUe to the strong winds due to the strong system crossing the
lakeshore, have upgraded the Gale Watch to a warning with winds
possibly becoming storm force Wednesday to Thursday. Due to this
potential have a storm watch out with Gales continuing Thursday .

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     morning for MIZ038>040.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday for
     LMZ844>849.
     Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning for
     LMZ844>849.

&&

DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...04/Ceru

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
459 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-261000-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
459 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong winds gusting to 50 mph are expected along the lake shore
Wednesday and Wednesday night resulting in scattered power
outages.

Travel may become hazardous Wednesday night and Thanksgiving due
to accumulating snow. Especially along the US 10 corridor and
along the I 94 corridor. Another period of hazardous travel due
to snow is possible Saturday into Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ844>849-261000-
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
459 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for the nearshore waters from
St Joseph to Manistee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Gales are possible Late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Gales to 45 kts are expected early Wednesday with storm force
winds possible Wednesday into Thursday with Gales continuing
Thursday into Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.