Tornado Warning 28, NWS Goodland, KS

610 
WWUS53 KGLD 170231
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
831 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

NEC057-170315-
/O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-250617T0315Z/
Dundy NE-
831 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN DUNDY COUNTY...

At 831 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 10 miles north of Haigler, or 19 miles east of Wray,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a funnel cloud.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Parks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4022 10159 4000 10171 4009 10200 4025 10193
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 279DEG 12KT 4016 10188 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

948 
WWUS53 KGLD 170249
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
849 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

NEC057-170259-
/O.CAN.KGLD.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-250617T0315Z/
Dundy NE-
849 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN DUNDY COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, small hail,
gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
northwestern Kansas...and southwestern Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4022 10159 4000 10171 4009 10200 4025 10193
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 286DEG 10KT 4015 10182 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
609 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms remain forecast This Evening and Tuesday.
  Tuesday continues to look like a more widespread event.

- Above normal temperatures are likely to persist through the
  upcoming weekend, including temperature near 105, which could
  break records.

- Critical fire weather potential increases later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A weak low situated over eastern Colorado this afternoon could
serve as a focusing mechanism for some convective activity in
the early evening hours. The convection will most likely form
along a weak dry line forming across far eastern Colorado and
a weak warm frontal boundary extending  The highest probability
for convective development will be in the evening hours
generally between 8 pm and midnight.  However, this development
is highly conditioned on temperatures warming enough to overcome
a weak mid-level capping inversion. The latest CAMS output does
show some development, but there is disagreement between the
various models on the extent of convective activity.  As a
result, confidence in overall thunderstorm coverage is lower
than average. At this time, some isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm activity is the most likely outcome for the evening
hours.  Model sounding information is supportive of strong to
severe wind gusts being the primary concern from any severe
thunderstorms that fire up.  After midnight, the convective
threat will wane rapidly as temperatures cool in relation to
convective cold pooling and the loss of diurnal heating.

Heading into tomorrow, the threat for severe storms is
substantially higher as a potent shortwave trough axis approaches
the forecast area from the west.  The combination of ample
instability and favorable 0-3km bulk shear values of 40 to 50
knots will support some severe thunderstorm activity.  The
convection will most likely develop initially in the late
afternoon hours across the northwest portion of the forecast
area in eastern Colorado and southwest Nebraska where the
greatest upper level difluence and forcing will be tomorrow
afternoon.  As this convective activity strengthens, there
are indications that an MCV will begin to form over northeast
Colorado.  A potent QLCS should form along a strengthening
cold pool boundary and then follow the theta-e axis to the
southeast across the entire forecast area through the late
afternoon and early evening hours.  Model sounding analysis
indicates that the highest threat from these severe
thunderstorms will once again be strong to severe thunderstorm
wind gusts.  Once again, the cold pooling and loss of daytime
heating after midnight will lead to clearing and calmer
conditions for the late evening and overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A very strong deep layer ridge axis will begin to build into
the area on Wednesday and will continue to strengthen and
dominate the forecast area through the weekend.  The end result
will be a much drier and hotter pattern.  The heat should peak
over the weekend when the ridge and overall subsidence will be
greatest across the region.  Model temperature spread is fairly
low, and there is a high degree of confidence that temperatures
will warm into the low to mid 100s this weekend.

Monday looks to be a transitional day as the ridge axis begins
to pull to the east.  Lowering heights and some weak positive
vorticity advection in advance of an approaching trough over
the Pacific Northwest could weaken the capping inversion just
enough to spark off some isolated convection.  However, there
is still very low confidence in the forecast for Monday, and
the rain threat could shift toward later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Initial concerns for the 00Z TAF period will center around
thunderstorm development and associated impacts. Strong
thunderstorms have begun to develop along stationary front with
the most intense storms likely along and east of front/dryline
intersection near the NE/CO/KS border, with KMCK seeing the best
potential to be impacted before 06Z. Strong winds exceeding 40
kts, blowing dust, hail and periods of heavy rain will likely
bring MVFR to IFR conditions with the strongest storms. Outflow
may initiate a storm near KGLD before 03Z, but that is less
likely. After thunderstorms diminish after midnight, expect
stratus to overspread the area through the morning hours,
gradually breaking up with diurnal heating. Lower MVFR
conditions likely to be widespread around sunrise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A major pattern shift is expected Tuesday night. But between
now and then, we are still expecting warm and relatively moist
conditions, minimizing our traditional critical fire weather
criteria. Also, this evening and again on Tuesday, we are
expecting daily chances at storms, potentially severe, to
impact majority of the area. These storms would create gusty,
erratic winds, leading to chaotic fire behavior. After Tuesday
night, a high pressure system will begin dominating the area.
This will lead to a dry, warming trend for the following days.
Southerly winds are already forecast to be gusting to around
25-30 MPH for large portions of the area as the RH values drop
into the teens. Thursday could see brief critical fire weather
conditions in eastern Colorado, but Friday and Saturday have
a decent chance at seeing fairly widespread critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DDC
FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
250 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-172100-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
250 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025 /350 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Another round of strong to severe storms are forecast late This
afternoon and may continue overnight into early Tuesday morning.
Large to very large hail and damaging winds continue to be main
threats although a brief tornado and an instance of flash flooding
can't be completely ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Tuesday, a large cluster of potentially severe storms is forecast to
move across the area during the afternoon and through the evening.
Damaging wind gusts look to be the primary hazard with this
activity.

Friday and Saturday, temperatures and heat indices may warm to
around 100-105 degrees. East of U.S. 83 is currently favored for the
hottest temperatures and heat index values. These temperatures may
lead to heat related illness for those without proper cooling
methods
and to livestock.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to return to at least
eastern Colorado Thursday through Saturday. Ensure any burns that
have been done recently are fully extinguished.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

GLD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
804 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     Hail             Yuma                    40.12N 102.72W
06/16/2025  E0.88 Inch       Yuma               CO   Trained Spotter

            Nickel sized hail ongoing and wind gusts
            estimated to be 50 mph.

&&

KMK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
810 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     Hail             4 SE Yuma               40.09N 102.66W
06/16/2025  E0.88 Inch       Yuma               CO   Trained Spotter

            Ongoing nickel hail is beginning to
            accumulate on the ground.

&&

KMK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
812 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     7 NW Ludell             39.92N 101.05W
06/16/2025  E80 MPH          Rawlins            KS   Public

            estimated 70-80 mph winds off and on.

&&

Trigg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
820 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Saint Francis           39.77N 101.80W
06/16/2025  M70 MPH          Cheyenne           KS   AWOS

            AWOS station KSYF St. Francis City.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
823 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 WNW Bird City         39.77N 101.60W
06/16/2025  M58 MPH          Cheyenne           KS   Public

&&

JRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
825 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     8 SSE Bird City         39.65N 101.44W
06/16/2025  M60 MPH          Cheyenne           KS   Mesonet

&&

JRM