Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1241 PM MDT Wed May 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather threat for this afternoon and early evening,
  with potential for hail to the size of tennis balls and a
  tornado.

- Areas of fog tonight and into Thursday morning, especially in
  northeast Colorado and adjacent areas of northwest Kansas.

- Warmer temperatures are forecast to return late week and into
  next weekend.

- More active pattern for thunderstorms early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Wed May 28 2025

Severe storms expected this afternoon in northeast Colorado and
adjacent counties in northwest Kansas. Vorticity lobe rotating
around an upper low in the northern plains will provide lift,
with a narrow axis of instability up to 2000 j/kg extending from
Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in Colorado into southwest Kansas
and deep layer shear of 40-50 kts. SBCAPE rapidly drops to zero
further east where cloudy and cool conditions persist,
especially north of I-70, but  it does extend a bit further
east south of I-70, especially south of Highway 40. Those areas
will see the greatest risk for severe weather after 21z through
about 02z, where supercells may develop capable of large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes. This evening, storms will move
south and out of the area. Areas of fog may develop relatively
early along leading edge of northeast winds behind the departing
storms, eventually settling into northeast Colorado and the
Colorado/Kansas border area overnight and into Thursday morning.
Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s.

Upper low will start to pull away to the Great Lakes on
Thursday. A few morning showers may persist, but then the
afternoon will be partly sunny and dry with highs in the upper
60s and light winds. Clear skies and light winds Thursday night
will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 40s.

Friday and Saturday...will be under northwest flow aloft. Friday
will see a shortwave ridge move through resulting in dry
conditions and temperatures warming in the lower 80s. Saturday
may see a weak embedded trough moving across the Nebraska
panhandle with weak instability axis ahead of it as far south as
southwest Nebraska. Cannot completely discount an isolated
shower or thunderstorm in that area in the afternoon, but models
are dry for now. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s and lows in
the upper 40s to middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Wed May 28 2025

Northwest flow continues on Sunday with the same possible
embedded wave shearing out across Kansas. Models offer varying
solutions so confidence in any storm chances is low. Upper flow
quickly transitions to southwest on Monday with negatively
tilted shortwave trough moving out of southeast Colorado and
across the area in the afternoon and evening. Severe weather
seems possible along/east of the dry line where narrow axis of
moderate instability is forecast, though deep layer shear is
lacking at around only 20kts at this time. Details a bit sketchy
at this time range, but may present the next chance for severe
storms. Southwest flow continues Tuesday and Wednesday with
several embedded waves teed up to move across the area. There
may also be a front in the area on Tuesday to focus convective
initiation. The pattern suggests storm chances will continue.
High temperatures through the period will generally be in the
80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Wed May 28 2025

At KGLD...low ceiling will persist through the TAF period with
IFR predominant. There is a 30% chance of a thunderstorm
impacting the terminal late this afternoon, with brief gusty
winds possible. This evening, fog is expected to develop and
persist through early Thursday morning before gradually
lifting.

At KMCK...light rain will be moving into the area and
persisting through this afternoon and early evening with IFR
ceilings and reduced visibility. This evening, some fog is
possible early, but main impacts will be from low ceilings
through early Thursday morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...024

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1251 PM MDT Wed May 28 2025

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-291900-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
1251 PM MDT Wed May 28 2025 /151 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail up to the size of
tennis balls, wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and a tornado are
possible after 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT). Severe storms are most likely
along and south of a Yuma Colorado to Oakley Kansas line.

Fog will redevelop across the area this evening and persist through
the overnight. The fog may be dense at times in northeast Colorado
and adjacent counties of northwest Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Fog will continue early Thursday morning, mainly in northeast
Colorado and adjacent counties in northwest Kansas.

Severe weather threat will return to the area towards the start of
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
201 PM MDT Wed May 28 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0158 PM     Hail             Burlington              39.31N 102.27W
05/28/2025  E0.88 Inch       Kit Carson         CO   Trained Spotter

            Nickel sized hail and very heavy rain
            reported in Burlington.

&&

KMK