Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
143 PM MDT Mon May 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated severe storm capable of producing quarter size
  hail is possible this afternoon in northwest Kansas, mainly
  along/south of I-70 between 3-7 pm MDT.

- Breezy to strong northwest winds are expected during the day
  on Tuesday, strongest along/north of I-70 where sustained
  winds at 30-40 mph may gust up to 55 mph during the late
  morning and early afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Mon May 19 2025

Today: A broad and somewhat complex upper level trough/low
(situated over the Rockies this morning) will progress east
across the Central and Southern Plains this afternoon into
tonight. Breezy NNW-NW winds and modest low-level cold advection
will keep rich low-level moisture south and east of the Tri-
State area today.. with surface dewpoints falling through the
40's and into the 30's this afternoon. Despite modest low-level
moisture, unimpeded insolation and moderately steep (7.5 C/km)
mid-level lapse rates will foster marginal diurnal
destabilization (~500 J/kg mlcape) over northwest Kansas this
afternoon. Marginal instability and strong cyclonic shear
vorticity (on the eastern periphery of the upper trough/low
progressing east across the region) will foster the development
of showers/storms in eastern CO and western KS this afternoon..
mainly along/south of I-70 between ~21-01Z. Modest (~25-30 kt)
effective deep-layer shear may foster occasional and/or
transient updraft organization (esp. in the presence of strong
upper forcing).. as one might infer from simulated reflectivity
forecasts via current and recent runs of the HRRR. With this in
mind, an isolated severe storm capable of producing quarter
sized hail is certainly possible.. mainly along/south of I-70
between ~21-01Z.

Tuesday: Speedy WNW flow aloft will overspread the region in
this period.. as the aforementioned upper trough/low and
associated surface low over the Central and Southern Plains
lifts NNE-N to the Central MS River Valley and Upper Midwest. A
tight 850 mb height gradient on the southwest periphery of the
low will foster 35-45 knot low-level flow over Nebraska and
adjacent portions of Kansas, where unimpeded insolation and
modest low-level cold advection will promote robust vertical
mixing during the late morning and afternoon. With this in mind,
breezy to strong northwest winds will develop over much of the
area on Tuesday, strongest along/north of I-70 where forecast
soundings suggest sustained winds ~30-40 mph. In southwest
Nebraska.. gusts may approach 55 mph during the late morning and
early afternoon. Wind of this magnitude will create difficult
travel conditions for high profile vehicles and, when combined
with low relative humidity, will foster a very high grassland
fire danger.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon May 19 2025

A dry WNW to NW flow regime will prevail through Thursday.. as
an upper level ridge gradually amplifies over the Rockies.
Synoptic pattern complexity noticeably increases late this week
into next weekend.. when guidance indicates that a broad upper
level low (with embedded compact lows) over New England may
retrograde toward the Great Lakes.. and shortwave energy moving
ashore the Pacific Coast (Fri) may become trapped beneath an
amplifying ridge over the Rockies and central CONUS (Sat-Sun).
Operational guidance presently suggests an above average
potential for convection over the Central Plains this weekend,
though.. given the complex nature of the synoptic pattern..
forecast confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Mon May 19 2025

GLD: Aside from a potential for showers ~21-02Z this afternoon
(mainly south of I-70), VFR conditions will otherwise prevail
through the TAF period. 20-30 knot NW winds will decrease to
10-20 knots around or shortly after sunset this evening. If
winds become light overnight.. northwesterly low- level wind
shear may well be present. NW winds will markedly strengthen
shortly after sunrise (~12-14Z) Tuesday morning.. increasing to
25-35 knots with gusts up to 40 knots and persisting into the
afternoon.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. 15-25
knot NW winds will decrease to 10-20 knots around or shortly
after sunset this evening. If winds become light overnight..
northwesterly low-level wind shear may well be present. NW
winds will markedly strengthen shortly after sunrise (~12-14Z)
Tuesday morning.. increasing to 25-35 knots with gusts up to
40 knots and persisting into the afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Vincent

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
108 PM MDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     Hail             8 N Saint Francis       39.89N 101.80W
05/18/2025  M1.75 Inch       Cheyenne           KS   Public

            Delayed Entry. Social media report with
            picture of golf ball sized hail.

&&

KAK

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
246 PM MDT Mon May 19 2025

KSZ027-192100-
Wallace KS-
246 PM MDT Mon May 19 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WALLACE COUNTY
THROUGH 300 PM MDT...

At 246 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Wallace, or 13 miles southeast of Sharon Springs,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Wallace County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10171 3873 10174 3887 10162 3882 10148
      3870 10148
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 248DEG 13KT 3873 10163

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Alexander