Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
408 PM MDT Sun May 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are forecast for this afternoon and evening,
  mainly between 3-8 PM MDT. While the majority of the area has
  a chance for severe storms, locales along and north of
  Interstate 70 are favored. Very large hail, damaging wind
  gusts and a few tornadoes are possible.

- Strong SW winds will develop behind a northward advancing
  dryline this afternoon, mainly along and south of I-70 where
  sustained winds at 30-40 mph may gust up to 55 mph for several
  hours prior to sunset.

- A few severe storms are possible east of Highway 83 Monday
  afternoon/evening. Severe weather potential may largely be
  confined to central and eastern Kansas.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 406 PM MDT Sun May 18 2025

Quick update to increase pops and add some blowing dust to the
plains based on recent radar and observation trends. Followed a
blend to the NAMNest in the short term with more coverage of
pops north of I-70. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Sun May 18 2025

Shortwave energy rounding the eastern periphery of the western
CONUS trough will lift NNE-NE from the 4-Corners to northeast CO
will foster the development of a modest lee cyclone over
eastern Colorado and extreme western Kansas this afternoon.
Southerly flow on the eastern periphery of the upper trough (in
the lee of the central-southern Rockies) and deep vertical
mixing will assist the northward advancement of a pronounced
dryline this afternoon. By 00Z, guidance suggests that the NW-
SE oriented dryline will be situated along/near a line extending
southeastward from Yuma to Goodland and Scott City.
Environmental conditions are quite favorable for robust severe
weather, especially with southern and eastern extent into
central KS.. where rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced
elevated mixed layer (700-500 mb lapse rates ~9 C/km) will
foster strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg mlcape). Current and
recent convection allowing guidance indicate two potential areas
of development along the dryline this afternoon: [1]
along/north of I-70 over portions of Yuma-Cheyenne-Sherman
counties ~21-22Z and [2] south of I-70 and along/east of Highway
83 (Gove County) ~22-23Z. Given that right-mover motion will be
from the SSW-SW (200-220 degrees) at ~30 knots, the 'window of
opportunity' for severe weather in the NWS Goodland county
warning area will be fairly short in duration (~4 hours), mainly
between ~21-02Z. Discrete supercells are likely to be the
primary mode. All severe hazards are on the table. Additional
development will occur the Goodland county warning area after
convection exits (~03-04Z this evening).. Strong southwest winds
and profoundly dry conditions are expected behind the dryline
(along/south of I-70), where forecast soundings indicate 35-45
knot flow throughout a very deep mixed layer.. and sustained
winds at 30-40 mph may gust up to 55 mph for several hours prior
to sunset.

Mon-Mon night: The western CONUS trough will evolve into a
broad (albeit complex) upper level low that slowly progresses
east across the Central/Northern Plains in this period. Guidance
suggests that shortwave energy lifting NNE into western Nebraska
(tonight) will evolve into cut-off, vertically stacked low over
South Dakota on Mon. In the lower levels.. a surface trough will
extend southward through central Nebraska and Kansas. While
scattered showers/storms are possible during the afternoon,
current indications are that.. severe weather potential will
likely be relegated to central-eastern KS (east of Hwy 283).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sun May 18 2025

For the extended period starting Tuesday a surface low remains
in place around the South Dakota/Minnesota/Nebraska/Iowa state
lines as breezy to gusty NW winds are forecast to continue
across the area in response to this low. Wind gusts of 45-55 mph
are currently forecast with sustained winds around 25-35 mph as
30 knot 850mb jet remain in place during the afternoon and a
45-50 knot 700mb jet remains in place, assuming if some mixing
can occur then would not be surprised if a rogue 60 mph gust
occurs if these trends hold. At this time Tuesday is forecast to
remain dry but if the low sets up a little further west then
some vorticity maxima may lead to some spotty showers through
the afternoon as well.

Wednesday morning as this low moves it a cold front and
associated surface high is forecast to move into the area which
is forecast to drop Wednesday morning lows into the 30s. An
associated surface high also moves into the area with the front
which is forecast to bring a period of lighter winds before they
shift to the west. If this shift to the west is slower to occur
then temperatures may drop even further which may bring some
frost or maybe freeze concerns to portions of the area which
would be impactful given we are well past our climatological
last freeze date. Luckily this surface high is forecast to be
short lived as a lee trough ahead of western CONUS ridging
develops and pushes this out of the area. Some guidance does
indicate a weak wave moving through with this activity which may
try to spark some storms during the evening hours so will need
to keep an eye on this.

Thursday and through the remainder of the extended period weak
mid level ridging is forecast to take place across the Inter
Mountain west which if current placement holds puts the region
on the eastern periphery of this feature. Typically in these
patterns weak waves that are not handled well by long range
deterministic guidance moves through the area; what makes this
interesting is that there are already some signals are some
embedded waves which makes me think that another active pattern
may emerge late week and next weekend. With this still being 5-7
days out a lot can and will change but it does appear that
additional potential for severe weather may return again for
portions of the area.

As for temperatures for the extended period. Tuesday is
forecast to start out fairly cool with high sin the mid 60s to
low 70s across the area before warming back into the upper 70s
my Wednesday and into the mid 80s again Friday especially as
that ridge begins to make itself known. For low temperatures as
mentioned above, some concern for frost and maybe freeze to
start the period before a recover to more seasonable lows in the
upper 50s and mid 50s by the latter portion of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Sun May 18 2025

GLD: A brief thunderstorm is possible in vicinity of the
Goodland terminal late this afternoon (~22-23Z). Otherwise, VFR
conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF period.
25-35 knot SE winds will shift to the SW and increase to 30-40
knots (w/gusts 45 knots) behind a dryline late this afternoon
(~22-01Z). Winds will weaken and become light/variable around or
shortly after sunset.. as a lee cyclone progresses eastward
over northwest KS. Winds will shift to the WNW and increase to
10-15 knots overnight.. further increasing to 20-30 knots
shortly after sunrise Monday.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the
afternoon. Severe thunderstorms may affect the McCook terminal
late this afternoon and early this evening (~23-03Z). MVFR-IFR
stratus is anticipated to develop late this evening and persist
overnight. 25-35 knot SE winds will prevail through the
afternoon. Winds will weaken and become light/variable around or
shortly after sunset as a lee cyclone progresses eastward over
northwest KS and southwest NE. Winds will shift to the WNW and
increase to 15-25 knots shortly after sunrise Monday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening
     for KSZ013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ091-
     092.
NE...None.

&&

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Vincent

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
440 PM MDT Sun May 18 2025

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-192245-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
440 PM MDT Sun May 18 2025 /540 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Severe storms are forecast for this afternoon and evening, mainly
between 3 PM and 8 PM MDT. While the majority of the area has a
chance for severe storms, locales along and north of Interstate 70
are favored. Very large hail, damaging wind gusts and a few
tornadoes are possible. Please keep a close eye on the weather
through this evening and promptly take shelter if severe weather
threatens.

Strong southwest winds will develop behind the dryline this
afternoon, mainly along and south of Interstate 70 where sustained
winds at 30 to 40 mph may gust up to 55 mph. Wind of this magnitude
may create difficult travel conditions, especially for high profile
vehicles. Localized reductions in visibility associated with blowing
dust are possible. Strong winds and exceptionally dry conditions
will
also foster a very high grassland fire danger.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A few severe storms are possible Monday afternoon and evening,
mainly east of Highway 83.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of severe weather are appreciated today!

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
435 PM MDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     Hail             Saint Francis           39.77N 101.80W
05/18/2025  E1.00 Inch       Cheyenne           KS   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in).

&&

Vincent

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
437 PM MDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     Hail             13 NW Saint Francis     39.90N 101.97W
05/18/2025  E0.75 Inch       Cheyenne           KS   Trained Spotter

            Relayed report of hail up to penny in size.

&&

KAK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
441 PM MDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     Hail             1 N Saint Francis       39.78N 101.80W
05/18/2025  M1.75 Inch       Cheyenne           KS   Trained Spotter

            Spotter reports hail up to golf ball in
            northern portion of Saint Francis.

&&

KAK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
442 PM MDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     Hail             Saint Francis           39.77N 101.80W
05/18/2025  E1.75 Inch       Cheyenne           KS   Public

            Report from mPING: Golf Ball (1.75 in.).

0438 PM     Hail             Saint Francis           39.77N 101.80W
05/18/2025  E1.50 Inch       Cheyenne           KS   Public

            Report from mPING: Ping Pong Ball (1.50
            in.).

0435 PM     Hail             Saint Francis           39.77N 101.80W
05/18/2025  E1.25 Inch       Cheyenne           KS   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

&&

Vincent

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>