Severe Thunderstorm Warning 397, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
220 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated severe storm is possible along/east of Hwy 83
  between 5-9 PM MDT/6-10 PM CDT. Large hail and 65 mph wind
  gusts appear to be the primary hazards, should storms develop.
  Recent trends suggest a lower probability of (or reduced
  potential for) severe weather in the Goodland county warning
  area.

- Above average temperatures will return over the weekend, with
  highs in the mid 80's on Sat-Sun.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025

Today-Tonight: A broad, complex upper level low over the
Dakotas will slowly/gradually track eastward into the Upper
Midwest this afternoon into tonight. Robust shortwave energy
(and focused upper forcing) over east-central Nebraska at 19 UTC
will progress E-ESE to the Nebraska-Iowa border (away from the
Goodland CWA) this afternoon. Guidance suggests that low- level
convergence within, and strengthening southerly flow on the
eastern periphery of, a broad lee cyclone/trough over western KS
will foster isolated convective development along/east of Hwy
83 in northwest KS late this afternoon and early this evening.
Confounding factors include whether or not (or to what extent)
ongoing convection accompanying the aforementioned shortwave
energy in central Nebraska will alter/influence environmental
conditions over northwest KS late this afternoon. Output from
current and recent (06-18Z) runs of the HRRR and (06-12Z) NAM
NEST remain less enthusiastic (compared to prior runs) about
convective development and intensity in northwest KS this
afternoon. Radar/satellite trends the past hour (19-20 UTC)
clearly indicate that scattered convective development has
commenced along the Hwy 36 corridor near the KS-NE border. Given
that convective development is already underway.. in the
presence of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and ~50 KT effective deep
layer shear.. a supercell capable of producing large hail is
certainly possible *if* updraft organization can be acquired/
sustained. In light of current trends, the 'window of
opportunity' for severe weather may be an hour or two earlier
than previously indicated.. ~2-7 pm MDT / 3-8 pm CDT.

Sat-Sun: Guidance suggests that a complex, disjointed synoptic
pattern characterized by (1) a sinuous, speedy northern stream
jet at higher latitudes in Canada and (2) a speedy, increasingly
sinuous southern stream jet along the southern Pacific Coast,
Desert Southwest and 4-Corners.. will prevail over North America
this weekend. While the Tri-State area will be in closest
proximity to (and more likely to be influenced by) the southern
stream jet.. a fractured branch of the northern stream jet
(manifesting as slow moving/nearly-stalled waves over the
Northern Plains) will no doubt introduce additional complexity/
uncertainty to the evolution of the upper level pattern (and
sensible weather conditions) over the Central Plains. Expect
increasing upper level cloud cover.. orographic cirrus, in
particular.. which may temper highs over much of the area
(especially eastern CO). Considerable uncertainty persists with
regard to precipitation chances/coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025

Long range guidance continues to suggest that a closed low will
develop over the central-northern Rockies/High Plains early
next week. If this is the case, one would expect active/
dynamic weather. Below average confidence in forecast specifics.
Forecast confidence typically decreases with range. Below
average, in this context, is intended to communicate a further
reduction in confidence associated with /inherent-to/ increased
pattern complexity, e.g. patterns characterized by cut-off waves
and multi-branched jet/wave interactions, among other factors.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025

GLD: VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail this afternoon
into this evening. MVFR-IFR stratus may develop overnight
(mainly after ~06Z Sat), though.. guidance is split with regard
to whether or not stratus will develop.. and confidence is low.
Absent stratus, VFR conditions will otherwise prevail. Breezy
(15-25 knot) SSW-SW winds will weaken and become light and
variable late this afternoon as a broad lee trough/cyclone
shifts eastward from CO into far western KS. Winds are expected
to shift to the N or NE at ~10 knots after sunset (as the
aforementioned lee trough/cyclone shifts south toward the KS-OK
border).. remaining light and gradually veering to the E by the
end of the TAF period.

MCK: A shower/storm cannot be ruled out in vicinity of the
McCook terminal late this aft-eve (~23-03Z). Sub-VFR fog or
stratus could develop a few hours on either side of sunrise
(~06-12Z Sat). Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated to
prevail through the TAF period. Light S-SW or variable winds
will shift to the N-NE after sunset.. remaining light and
gradually veering to the E by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Vincent

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
102 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-201915-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
102 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025 /202 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

An isolated severe storm is possible late this afternoon and early
this evening, mainly along and east of Highway 83 in northwest Kansas
between 6 PM and 10 PM CDT. Large hail and wind gusts up to 65 mph
appear to be the primary hazards, should storms develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

Vincent

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
224 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 PM     Hail             Jennings                39.68N 100.29W
09/19/2025  M1.75 Inch       Decatur            KS   Trained Spotter

            Golfball size hail in Jennings.

&&

JRB

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