Severe Thunderstorm Warning 293, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
726 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Threat for storms through much of the afternoon and evening
  hours for most of the forecast area today.

- Cooler temperatures forecast Monday around 80 and lows in the
  50s. Slight chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon along the
  Kansas/Colorado state line.

- Temperatures are forecast to warm through the week, with highs
  approaching 100 late in the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 721 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

As the line of storms over far Eastern Colorado continues east
into Kansas and Nebraska, a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch has
been issued for the remainder of the county warning area until 2
AM MDT/3 AM CDT. Hazards include up to two inch hail, up to 75
mph wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes can't be ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 144 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Another tough and touchy forecast is in store for the rest of the
day. Large scale troughing is ongoing as essentially the same set up
as yesterday is forecast to occur albeit the obvious better forcing
is a tad further south. At the surface do have some subtle
northwesterly flow on the leading edge of a surface trough. A very
mesoscale heavy forecast then ensues the obvious features are
the cloud cover across most of the area; this has been
dissipating some over the past hour or so including upper level
cirrus. The most interesting feature to me is what appears to
be another outflow boundary situated across northern portions of
the forecast area where low status has been observed within it.
This may be the focus of a differential heating boundary that
may spark a storm or two during the early afternoon hours. One
would think that after all of the storms yesterday the
atmosphere would be worked over and one would be right but have
been noticing some local recovery via MUCAPE and low level
lapse rates via the SPC mesoanalysis page with MUCAPE up to
around 1000 j/kg along a corridor roughly from Yuma to Goodland
which is just south of that boundary and where winds and more
northeasterly. Should a storm develop along that boundary
supercell characteristics would be possible especially if it
forms in the area of recovery with hail around 2 inches and wind
gusts of 60-70 mph. Not overly concerned for tornadic activity
with this due to anticyclonic and semi straight hodographs in
place; however if a storm could latch onto that boundary then
can't completely rule one out.

The main focus for storm development will be associated with a
vigorous trough across the mountains. The biggest variable for
the day will be that a localized stronger jet is collocated
within the main flow of that trough. If everything can align
correctly then that could make our severe threat today be a bit
more widespread and compensate for the lower values of CAPE
across the area. Storms are forecast to form off of the Front
Range this afternoon and cluster as they move towards the area.
At this time I feel damaging winds up to 70 mph will be the main
hazard but hail up to golf ball size can't be ruled out given
the shear remaining in place especially with any embedded
stronger updrafts. RAP and Namnest soundings both suggest 0-3
shear around 25-35 knots and with line normal orientation to
the line a brief spinups tornado may also be possible across
Cheyenne (CO), southern Kit Carson county and into western
Wallace and Greeley counties. Blowing dust may also be possible
as well due to lower mixing heights and even stronger 1 hour and
3 hour pressure rises than what occurred yesterday; the only
caveat to this is that 0.10cm soil moisture via NASASPORT is
fairly high with the exception being along the I-70 corridor
which saw the least amount of rain yesterday. Should dust occur
it may be roughly the same time frame as yesterday between 6-9pm
MT.

Some flooding may also be a concern as well this evening as well as
PWATS increase to around 1.2-1.5 south of I70. Other than the
high PWATS not overly sold on flash flooding potential due to
high Corfidi upshear and downshear vectors which suggests that
the storm should be moving fairly quickly and limiting training
potential but with the freezing layer being so low think
accumulating hail may be more of a concern.

Around 09Z rainfall is forecast to start coming to an end with winds
becoming light and variable as a surface high pushes in from the
Front Range so we may need to watch for status and fog in the AM.

Monday, the main axis of the trough continues to shunt even
further south along with all of the better forcing. Cooler
temperatures are again forecast with highs in the low to mid 80s
across most of the area. The majority of the area should be dry
throughout the day as well but there may be a surface
convergence along the Kansas/Colorado state line that may be
able to trigger a storm; multiple storms may form via outflow
boundaries and weak shear around 10 knots.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

To start the extended period overall synoptic pattern currently
appears to be similar to this weekend but main convective
initiation features look to be shunted to the south as the
region is more in the axis of the upper level trough. Semi
northwest flow then looks to return as another surface high is
forecast to set up across the SW CONUS. Would not be surprised
if daily chances for showers and storms continues with
convection off of the Rockies but the question will be if the
moisture is sufficient enough as this cuts off the monsoonal
moisture feed that has been in place. As the week goes on
troughing then looks to return to the SW CONUS as a surface high
returns to the SE CONUS. This will then return the monsoonal
flow to Colorado bringing some higher confidence in daily
showers and storms as the moisture and humidity back to the
region.

As for temperatures another gradual warming trend is forecast
to occur starting Tuesday with the potential for upper 90s to
triple digits occur towards the end of the new work week. No
signals for gusty or strong synoptic winds is currently seen
either leading me to think that winds that have mainly been
seen thus far this summer will remains with diurnal gusts of
20-30 mph possible each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 324 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Main concern for this TAF period will showers and storms this
afternoon where some of them may be severe especially for GLD.
The window of opportunity for GLD for severe weather is between
01-04Z; am leaving as a PROB30 for now due to concerns of the
storms diving south and missing the terminal completely. MCK at
this time appears to be more of a ordinary storm chance with
perhaps some gusty winds if strong enough. Signal for stratus
and fog has actually decreased some but will continue to leave
it in the TAF due to favorable atmospheric conditions. Light
winds will then finish out the period after and stratus and fog
clears out mid mornings. There is some signal for some more
storms impacting the GLD terminal towards the end of this TAF
period but with forcing appearing to be nebulous at this time
will leave out the mention for now.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Monday morning for KSZ001-002.
CO...Flood Watch through Monday morning for COZ090.
NE...None.

&&

UPDATE...KMK
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg

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