Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
441 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are forecast to develop this afternoon
  and evening favoring northern portions of the area. Large hail,
  damaging winds to 70 mph and brief tornadoes are all
  possible.

- A cold front is also forecast to move through the area this
  evening bringing strong to potentially damaging wind gusts.
  Some blowing dust may also accompany the front this evening as
  well.

- Overall drier Thursday but a 10-15% chance for severe
  downbursts associated with virga/sprinkles/showers are
  possible Thursday afternoon mainly west of Highway 25.

- A more active pattern then sets up with daily chances for
  storms Saturday through Monday. Severe weather may be
  possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 433 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025

Increasing storm coverage is starting to become more apparent
and moving towards the area. After collaboration with SPC a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Dundy, Yuma and
Cheyenne (CO). Additional updraft attempts are being seen across
Lincoln, Crowley, and Otero counties but with a weaker
environment in place unsure if these will account to anything a
potential watch expansion may be needed if these start looking
more impressive.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025

The surface low is located around the Highway 25/83 vicinity
currently with breezy northwest winds gusting around 35 mph on the
back side. Strong moisture advection continues on the lee side
of the low with 60 dew points currently being observed across
Red Willow, Norton and Graham counties. This will also be the
focus for a conditional threat for a storm or two to develop
this afternoon (5- 10% chance). Should a storm go in this
environment, as depicted by the NAM/NAMNEST which is handling
the dew points the best of now, intense supercells would be
possible with large to very large hail and damaging winds.
Straight line hodographs would also support potential splitting
of cells. However, the northeastern progression of the low will
be key in if this will happen as any initiation may be confined
up closer to the I-80 corridor. The current positioning of the
low is keeping my confidence lower versus if it was further
west.

Now onto round 2 of storm potential this evening. A secondary
convergence may yield some additional development ahead of an
incoming cold front. These may struggle a bit due to lack of upper
level support, but the environment would remain support for
large hail and damaging winds and perhaps a landspout as well.
Better coverage of strong to severe storms comes with this
evening as a cold front moves through the area along with a
strengthen jet in the 850mb and 700mb levels. With this
activity large hail to golf ball and wind gusts to 70 mph would
be the main hazards. If cells, are able to merge/interact with
each other a period of a QLCS (linear) tornado threat may be
develop as the mean wind is perpendicular to the frontal
movement and increasing 0-3 CAPE around 30 knots and an
increasing 0-1 and 0-3 SRH as the low level jet strengthens.

As the cold front approaches the area this evening, we will
also need to be aware of blowing dust, perhaps even a haboob
potential, especially if the front moves through quicker or if
any outflow boundaries from showers/storms along the cold front.
At this time think the potential for that rather low but do
think some dust will be lofted and potentially capped along the
front as the 2-2.5 c/km lapse rates become more stable. With
this front, a very strong 3 hour and 1 hour pressure rise of
11mb and 5 mb respectively are seen to occur which with the
developing low level jet will bring some strong to potentially
damaging winds around 55-60 mph that are not associated with
thunderstorms. If showers can develop in this environment then
some rogue even higher gusts are possible due to downward
momentum transport. I was contemplating a High Wind Warning but
due to the timing as it is tougher to get winds to reach their
full potential as the nocturnal inversion sets in, coverage and
the potential fine line of non thunderstorm vs thunderstorm wind
gusts am opting to hold off for now but a short fused warning
may be needed if the fullest potential can be realized.

Thursday, winds are forecast to remain breezy in wake of the cold
front with slightly cooler temperatures in the low 70s to low 80s
forecast. Lower dew points are also forecast to move into the area
which may bring some near critical fire weather conditions to Yuma
and SW Nebraska but fuels may be mitigated some the rainfall from
tonight.

During the afternoon hours a subtle 500mb wave moves through the
area along with an increase in mid level moisture which is
forecast to move into eastern Colorado and into western Kansas.
With the dry low levels mainly virga is expected although can't
completely rule out some localized instances where rain can
reach the surface. The interesting part of the day is the
potential for downbursts/microbursts with the
virga/sprinkles/showers as corfidi downshear vectors are around
50-60 knots. A rogue and brief wind gust of 60-65 mph can not be
ruled out with the activity Thursday afternoon.

Friday, continues to look more tranquil as the low pressure system
from today resides in the upper midwest. Breezy winds will still be
across the area but think they won't be as noticeable due to
the low being further aware from the area. At this time the
forecast looks dry as high temperatures are forecast to be in
the 70s across the area. Some additional near critical fire
weather conditions may be present once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025

To start the extended period on Saturday and into the start of the
new work week a more active pattern continues appear to develop.
Deep troughing is forecast to develop across western CONUS along
with an increase in moisture from the southeast. Saturday, the
better moisture appears to favor southern Kansas and down into
Oklahoma but enough moisture with dew points in the mid 40s to
mid 40s may make it up towards around the I-70 corridor which
may support an isolated storm threat as weak shortwave moves off
of the southern Rockies.

Sunday and Monday may be the days that need to be watched as the
trough continues to track eastward a surface low develops across
eastern Colorado. Depending on how the exact position of the low
will determine exactly where and if dry slotting may be of a
concern. The ECMWF does show increasing 700mb winds which would help
support any updraft attempts each day. There is some 500mb
divergence seen as well just ahead of the main wave on Sunday which
would better help ascent across the area as well. With the semi
concerns for dry slotting will continue to keep pops in the chance
to slight chance range for each day. Winds do look to be breezy as
well with SE winds advecting in moisture ahead of the low Sunday.
May also need to keep an eye out for fog and stratus potential the
closer we get.

Behind the low on Monday some below normal air may try to move in
for Tuesday morning where low temperatures may try to fall into the
30s across eastern portions of the area which brings some concern
for a frost, especially if we do get rainfall and the boundary
layer can become more saturated. Ensembles however don't show
nearly as potent of air as what was seen 24 hours so will be
interesting to see how this trends.

Tuesday, another system may eject across Kansas from the southern
Plains but there is a ton of varying solutions with the track of
that and if that system will even develop in the first place. After
that some mid level ridging looks to return with a quiet end to the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 433 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025

Main focus will be on storm potential this evening. Confidence
has increased some that the KGLD terminal may see some
convection as well so have introduced a PROB30 for this. Still
slightly higher confidence in some storms affecting KMCK. Dust
may also become a concern as an outflow boundary from storms
across northern Colorado move towards the area. A cold front is
also forecast to move through the area bringing strong winds to
each terminal.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg

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