Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
455 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms will be possible daily through Saturday with the main
  threat of damaging winds.

- Heavy rainfall is forecast overnight Friday into Saturday
  morning with 2 to 4 inches expected, mainly for northwestern
  counties. A Flood Watch is in effect tonight through 9AM MT
  Saturday.

- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low to mid
  90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1216 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Tonight, multiple rounds of storms are expected to move through
the area, especially our northwest areas overnight into Saturday
morning. Generally, severe weather is favorable given the
environmental conditions. Instability right now is likely the
biggest limiting factor, but it is adequate. The main threats
from severe weather will be damaging winds and a secondary
threat of large hail. As far as timing, the storms look to be
approaching our westernmost counties by around 00z to 01z and
progress eastward through the area quickly. We are outlooked in
a Slight Risk of Severe Weather from SPC to reflect this risk,
especially for our northwesternmost areas. Some blowing dust
out ahead of these storms will be a concern again tonight, but
generally given the rainfall yesterday should be improved
slightly.

One large concern for especially the overnight hours from around
10pm-midnight MT through around 6am MT or later will be the
flash flooding threat. This concern is mainly for the
northwesternmost counties (Yuma, Dundy, and Cheyenne), but could
extend to the surrounding counties to the east and south of
that location given some of the uncertainties. Environmental
conditions in this area are quite favorable for flash flooding
with decent moisture up the atmospheric column, high PWs, long
skinny CAPE, and lower shear. There is a small low level jet,
but it is quite weak and if it does not manifest, this could be
the biggest limiting factor toward seeing flash flooding. For
now in recent models, it seems adequate, but will need to be
monitored. There is also some uncertainty in how much training
will occur with these storms, but recent model trends have been
increasingly highlighting this scenario. If that happens, flash
flooding impacts will be likely.

Looking at the models, multiple rounds of rainfall will occur
over the area from 10/11PM MT through 6AM MT with 2-4" inches
expected. This could occur over the same areas, based on recent
trends, primarily for Yuma, Dundy, and Cheyenne counties. This
rainfall could be fairly efficient as well with 1-1.5" per hour
rainfall rates possible. We are outlooked in a Slight Risk of
Heavy Rainfall for these areas to reflect this risk. Given the
flashy creeks and rivers in this area and general hilly terrain,
this will be a big concern for flash flooding impacts. Minor to
moderate flooding on rural roads and low lying areas are all in
the realm of possibility, especially near creeks and rivers. As
a result, a Flood Watch has been issued for Yuma, Dundy, and
Cheyenne counties to highlight the risk areas and potential for
flash flooding. We will continue monitoring overnight. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Saturday through Tuesday, upper level ridging will build over
the area. Conditions will be fairly dry overall Saturday
afternoon through Tuesday as a result. Winds will be
predominantly southerly. So fire weather concerns should be kept
to a minimum with RHs well above 20-30%. High temperatures will
be mild in the mid 90s overall with heat index values in the low
90s. Generally, expect sunny and dry weather early next week.

Tuesday night through the end of the workweek, multiple rounds
of rainfall and systems are possible as zonal flow dominates the
pattern and 1-2 shortwaves could influence the area. There is
still a lot of model uncertainty in these systems, especially
since one will influence the other as we go toward the weekend.
Generally, looking at the current model trends, all modes of
severe weather will be possible, especially damaging winds. And
flash flooding could also be a concern in hilly or urban areas
where rain trains or falls multiple times over the same area. A
lot of what happens at the end of next week will become more
clear as we get to Monday and Tuesday timeframe. We will keep
monitoring closely for changes. MSW

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 451 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

The main focus for this TAF period will be increasing shower
and storm potential as we head through the evening. Some of the
storms have the potential to be strong to severe with wind gusts
around 40-50 knots possible. Highest confidence for a terminal
to be impacted by storms is KMCK where I've included a tempo
versus a PROB30 for KGLD. Storms should in the vicinity of the
KGLD but will see if the terminal is impacted. If a storm where
to impact a terminal then MVFR to possibly IFR conditions in
visibility and ceiling will be possible. More rainfall is
forecast to move through the area at 06Z with a drying trend
after sunrise Saturday. Winds are forecast to shift quite over
the next 24 hours from the ESE to the NW and then finally back
to the SSE by the end of the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ001.
CO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for COZ090.
NE...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NEZ079.

&&

SHORT TERM...Williams
LONG TERM...Williams
AVIATION...Trigg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
431 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-122245-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
431 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 /531 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

There is a marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms this
evening across the entire area. Damaging wind gusts of 60 to 75 mph
will be possible, as well as areas of blowing dust and localized dust
storms. A few instance of hail up to quarter sized will also be
possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is effect until 11PM for
locations along and north of Highway 36 from Yuma County Colorado
through Decatur County Kansas in northeastern Colorado, southwestern
Nebraska, and northwestern Kansas.

Heavy rain and localized flash flooding will also be possible for
areas north of Interstate 70 and west of Highway 25 this evening into
the overnight hours. Particularly from northern Yuma County into
Dundy County Nebraska and Cheyenne County Kansas were a Flood Watch
is in effect from 6PM this evening through 9AM Saturday morning where
rainfall amounts of 1" to 4" may occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
754 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     Hail             4 NNE Vernon            39.98N 102.24W
07/11/2025  M1.00 Inch       Yuma               CO   Trained Spotter

            Hail ranged from pea to quarter in size.
            Winds were 40+ MPH.

&&

JTL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
759 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 NE Vernon             39.98N 102.20W
07/11/2025  M74 MPH          Yuma               CO   Mesonet

            Weatherlink site Osmus Farm reports the
            gust.

&&

Trigg