Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
250 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend
  into next week; severe weather is possible as well.

- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

The Tri-State area remains situated in a weak forcing regime,
on the northern periphery of an upper level ridge (anchored over
northern Mexico and the Southern Plains), in W to WSW flow
aloft. Weak low-level and mid-level flow, <= 15 knots from the
surface to 15 KFT AGL (up to ~500 mb) persist, with stronger
flow confined to the 200-300 mb level (25-35 KFT AGL). While
weak forcing continues to frustrate convection allowing
guidance, there appears to be a general trend/consensus that
scattered convection developing along the Colorado Front Range
and Palmer Divide will progress east toward the CO-KS border
(via modest westerly steering flow) late this afternoon and
evening (~5-10 pm MDT). Isolated convective development could
occur near Highway 50 in Hamilton/Kearny counties (perhaps
southern Greeley/Wichita counties) ~20-22 UTC this afternoon..
where observational data indicates that moisture pooling is
occurring in vicinity of a weak convergence zone.. and diurnal
Cu was already present nearby to the west, over Kiowa/Prowers
counties. A severe storm is possible ~20-22 UTC if development
does occur over southern portions of Greeley/Wichita counties,
though.. with right-mover motion from the N at ~25 knots.. left-
mover motion from the W at ~10 knots and the mean wind from the
NW at 15-20 knots.. it would be short-lived in nature (for the
Goodland county warning area). In contrast to yesterday,
unimpeded insolation and the presence of an elevated mixed layer
(700-500 mb lapse rates ~7.0 to 8.5 C/km) will yield seasonably
strong DCAPE (1500-1800 J/kg), suggesting an inherently greater
potential for severe downbursts associated with any convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Sun-Mon: Guidance indicates relatively little change in the
'big picture', i.e. the Tri-State area will remain in a weak
forcing regime on the northern periphery of an upper level
ridge (anchored over the Southern Plains and northern Mexico) in
WSW flow aloft. Convective development, coverage and evolution
in the Goodland county warning area may be influenced (directly
or indirectly) by upstream and/or antecedent convection on each
day. Bottom line, low confidence in forecast specifics
(convective mode, coverage, evolution). Guidance does indicate
that an upper level low digging southward along the Pacific
Coast will tighten the height gradient (and magnitude of WSW
flow aloft) over the Desert Southwest, 4-Corners and portions
of the central Rockies.. suggesting that stronger deep layer
shear (and greater overall severe weather potential) will exist
on both Sun-Mon.

Tue-Sat: Long range guidance indicates that ridging aloft will
prevail over the southern CONUS, and that the Tri-State area
will remain situated on the northern periphery of the ridge, at
or near the southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies.
Broadly speaking, expect near to above average temperatures and
a daily potential for late aft-eve convection (mainly in
climatologically favored locations downstream of the Colorado
Front Range).. depending on the orientation of the ridge and
proximity of the mid-latitude westerlies.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with
light northerly winds becoming variable this evening and
remaining light/variable through the duration of the TAF period.
Thunderstorms developing along the Colorado Front Range and
Palmer Divide this afternoon will track east toward the CO-KS
border late this aft-eve, potentially impacting the Goodland
terminal in the ~02-06Z time frame. Gusty/erratic winds can be
expected in vicinity of any storms (or decaying convection late
this evening/overnight).

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period with light
northerly winds becoming variable this evening and remaining
light/variable through the duration of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Vincent

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
120 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-061930-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
120 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 /220 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Thunderstorms developing along the Colorado Front Range and Palmer
Divide will track east toward the Kansas border late this afternoon
and evening. A few severe storms capable of producing wind gusts up
to 70 mph are possible, mainly in eastern Colorado and adjacent
Kansas border counties between 5 PM and 10 PM MDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Severe thunderstorms are possible over much or all of the Tri-State
area during the afternoon and evening hours on both Sunday and
Monday. Damaging winds and large hail appear to be the most likely
hazards on both days. A few tornadoes are possible with any discrete
supercells. Low confidence in thunderstorm coverage, mode and
evolution.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports are encouraged and appreciated!

Vincent

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