Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
537 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and storms are possible through this evening,
  mainly in eastern CO. Brief, localized wind gusts in the 50-60
  mph range are possible with *any* showers and storms (even
  decaying convection).

- Dry lightning may lead to an increased fire risk on Saturday.

- Potentially severe storms are expected on Sunday, mainly in
  the late afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

The tail end of a fast moving trough axis sliding through the
Dakotas this afternoon will produce isolated thunderstorm
activity in our Colorado counties. Outflow from these initial
storms is projected to then produce additional thunderstorm
activity in portions of southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas
in the early evening hours. Any thunderstorm activity should
dissipate in the late evening hours as temperatures begin to
cool and instability wanes. The primary concern from any storms
will strong wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph and some large hail.
After the storms dissipate, clearing skies and seasonably cool
temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

A weak shortwave ridge axis will lead to hotter and drier
conditions on Saturday across the area with daytime highs
running a good 5 to 10 degrees above normal in the mid to upper
90s. Although moisture will be very limited on Saturday, enough
instability should be in place to support isolated weak
thunderstorm activity along the Kansas/Colorado border. These
storms will not have much rainfall associated with them, but
they will have the potential to produce some dry lightning
strikes. With winds gusting over 25 mph from the south in the
afternoon hours, there could be some increased fire concerns due
to the dry lightning strike threat. This threat will quickly
end after sunset as temperatures start to cool off and the weak
storms come to an end.

The overall pattern across the country will become more
amplified on Sunday with a strong longwave ridge building over
the western third of the nation. A fairly decent front will
slide through the area on Sunday, and this will bring another
round of thunderstorms back to the area. Thunderstorm coverage
will be highest this day due to the increased forcing along the
front, and a few of the storms will likely turn severe with
damaging wind gusts and hail being the primary threat.
Temperatures will be near average in Nebraska and Colorado, but
should still be in the mid 90s south of I-70 as the front is not
expected to move through this portion of the forecast area
until the evening hours.

Deep layer northwest flow aloft and a north to northeast flow
in the low levels on Monday and Tuesday will keep temperatures
closer to average in the mid to upper 80s during the day and the
upper 50s and lower 60s at night. The easterly flow could allow
for some moisture pooling in place, but a dry line will also
develop each day in eastern Colorado. Just enough forcing should
be in place along the dry line to induce some isolated storms
in the late afternoon and early evening hours on both Monday and
Tuesday.

Wednesday should be the driest day of the week as deep layer
ridging passes directly over the region. This will allow for
ample subsidence and a strong capping inversion aloft, and this
should limit convective potential across the area. At most, a
very isolated and short-lived shower or storm could pop up along
the dry line in Colorado during the late afternoon hours.
Temperatures will also begin to warm beneath the ridge with
highs climbing back into the low to mid 90s.

The ridging will being to push to the east on Thursday and
Friday. A southwesterly flow regime will take hold aloft and
winds in the low levels will shift back to the south and
southeast. Weak lee troughing will support a stronger dry line
forming each day, and this will lead to better convective
coverage over the western third of the forecast area in the late
afternoon and evening hours each day. Temperatures will be near
or slightly above average each day, but nothing too extreme for
this time of year with readings generally remaining in the low
90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

GLD: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. While
a brief thunderstorm is possible this evening (~02-04Z),
confidence is low.. and probabilities are low enough to confine
mention to a PROB30 group. S winds at 15-25 knots will decrease
to 10-15 knots after sunset. 10-15 knot S winds are likely to
persist through the duration of the TAF period. Gusty and
erratic winds are, of course, possible in vicinity of any
showers/storms.. even if decaying.

MCK: VFR conditions and light (10-15 knot) south winds will
prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...KAK/Grigsby
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Grigsby

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
752 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     Hail             5 NE Idalia             39.76N 102.25W
06/27/2025  E0.25 Inch       Yuma               CO   Trained Spotter

            A spotter in Idalia, CO reported very heavy
            rain and small (BB to pea sized) hail at
            7:38 pm MDT. Strong winds were not observed.

&&

Vincent