Red Flag Warning 18, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1031 AM MST Wed Dec 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Increasing potential for high wind gusts, explosive fire
   growth, and dust storm conditions occurring Thursday.

-  Critical fire weather conditions may occur today, Thursday
   and Friday, with greatest risk in western areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1230 AM MST Wed Dec 17 2025

Forecast remains more or less on track, with wind, dust and
marginal fire weather conditions the main concerns. Today, gusty
southwest winds will commence with mixing around 17z and
continue through about 20z. Mixed layer winds suggest gusts of
40-50 mph will be possible, highest in western areas, but mixing
may be limited as high clouds increase in the afternoon.
Nonetheless, there is some critical fire weather potential if
all the parameters can come together: lowest percentile dew
points, highest percentile temperatures and highest percentile
wind gusts. Confidence is around 50% that that will happen, so
will only mention elevated conditions at this time for northeast
Colorado/adjacent areas in northwest Kansas, but with some
localized critical conditions certainly possible. High
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s, with perhaps a few
lower 70s in western areas with the ideal downsloping wind
direction.

Tonight, strong cold front will enter northwest portion of the
area around 03z and quickly move through the remainder of the
area by around 06z. Gusty northwest winds of 50-60 mph will
accompany the frontal passage and persist for a few hours
afterwards. Some blowing dust will also be possible. Considered
moving the High Wind Watch back to cover this potential, but
confidence is around 50% that 60 mph gusts will materialize.
Gusty winds will continue through the overnight but with gusts
more in the 30-40 mph range. Lows will range from the upper 20s
to middle 30s.

Thursday morning, should see the winds pick up around 15z as
the inversion breaks. Models still in some disagreement on where
the strongest wind gusts will occur. GFS insists the maximum
will be over western and central parts of the area, with ML
winds of 60 to 80 mph, but ECMWF and now most of the CAMS have
the highest gusts in the eastern parts of the area and slightly
lower ML winds. 3-km NAM presents a fairly reasonable compromise
between the various solutions with gusts up to 60 mph between
17z and 21Z for areas along/east of Highway 25. No changes
planned to the High Wind Watch for this cycle. The blowing dust
potential still exists with mixing heights well within range
peaking at 1.5 to 1.8 km and recent warm and dry spell priming
soils. Would expect to see a general haze once the gusts start,
with localized dust storms should the higher gusts materialize.
Confidence level is around 50% for plumes of dust which could
produce very hazardous driving conditions and brownouts.
Finally, while relative humidity minimums don't quite reach the
critical threshold, the magnitude of the winds could down power
lines which would possibly ignite wildfires, becoming very
difficult to control in the windy conditions through late
Thursday afternoon. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s with
lows Thursday night in the 20s.

On Friday, winds will be southwest once again which will allow
temperatures to climb back into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Afternoon relative humidity minimums will be in the teens and
20s, lowest in western areas. However, winds may not reach the
critical threshold as a capping inversion is forecast to hold
through the day, keeping peak gusts at around 25 mph. Winds
above the inversion are not much higher, so even with deeper
mixing winds would not increase much. So at this point looks to
be more of an elevated fire weather risk as opposed to critical.
Lows Friday night will be in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM MST Wed Dec 17 2025

A progressive, energetic and largely unidirectional flow
pattern will prevail this weekend and early next week.. when a
strong (~150 knot) westerly upper level jet will be present over
the northern CONUS (40-50N latitude). With the Tri-State area
situated on the southern fringe /anticyclonic shear side/ of a
powerful upper level jet.. dry conditions are likely. Guidance
continues to suggest that above average temperatures will
prevail throughout the long term period, with a modest cooling
trend (highs in the 50's) this weekend followed by a modest
warming trend (highs in the 60's) early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1027 AM MST Wed Dec 17 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR and breezy for the first 6 hours of the
period with clouds generally above 15000ft and winds gusting
around 20-35 kts. Once the sun sets, there should be a brief
period where the winds either lower to 10-15 kts or go calm.
However, by 02-03Z, a cold front should move in from the
northwest, flipping winds to out of the northwest with gusts
around 40-50kts. The strongest gusts should be somewhat short
lived and lower to around 20-30 kts through the rest of the
night. Low level wind shear is expected with speeds around
50-60 kts within the lowest few hundred feet. Around 15Z, winds
are forecast to mix down to the surface and provide gusts around
35-50 kts, favoring KMCK for the higher gusts around 50 kts.
The winds are also forecast to be strong enough for blowing
dust. Be alert for rapidly changing conditions and the
possibility of brown out conditions.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon
     for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon
     for COZ090>092.
NE...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon
     for NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...KAK

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