Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
358 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple waves of thunderstorms are expected this evening into
  the overnight hours. Some of these storms may have Large Hail,
  Damaging Winds and a tornado possible.

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon
  along/near Highway 281. These storms could be severe as well.

- Cooler Tuesday and Tuesday night. Then warming to near
  climatic normals for late May.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

The primary focus today has been on this evening and overnight
thunderstorm/severe forecast.

The models have been steady today, showing more coverage across
south central Nebraska and north central Kansas, than yesterdays
runs. The CAM guidance indicates the potential for a couple of
rounds or waves of thunderstorms this evening and overnight. The
first round will develop in the next hour or two, and arching
across much of the forecast area, and moving from southwest to
northeast with time. These storms could be severe as warm moist
air continues to advect northward. These storms are likely to
remain somewhat elevated at first. Instability decreases to the
north, but shear remains plentiful.

On its heels, the next round is firing as of 3:45 PM from
northeast Colorado southwest to west of Dodge City, KS. These
storms are expected to be severe. These storms will be round two
moving towards the area this evening with the chance for
supercells with very large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds.
Some of these storms, especially those that begin in far NE
Colorado could persist and become a line and move eastward
during the overnight hours.

Tomorrow, the whole system will move eastward. A lull in
activity is expected during the morning hours, but then storms
could fire along the dryline, as well as the cold front, which
will be slightly behind the dryline. There remains a question on
where the convection will develop, but the most favored area is
along and and east of Highway 281 and track eastward during the
afternoon and evening hours. An additional question is how will
today's convection and any outflow boundaries impact the
evolution of tomorrow's convection.

Beyond these two days of severe weather, cooler air will settle
in with highs in the 50s and 60s. Lows Wednesday morning in
central Nebraska could bring a chance for some frost.

The remainder of the forecast, there are a few chances for
precipitation off and on and temperatures will be in the 70s
generally.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR TAFs this afternoon before thunderstorms are expected to
move into the terminals from the south/southwest. East/southeast
winds are breezy this afternoon with gusts exceeding 30kts at
times. These breezy southeasterly winds will persist through the
afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms will likely be
present at least off and on from approximately 23z to 03-04z.
Low MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected during the overnight
hours. Winds are expected to shift to the west/northwest around
mid-day on Monday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
326 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
192030-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
326 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to move from the southwest
to the northeast across the area this afternoon through the
evening and into tonight. Some of these storms are likely to be
severe, and the strongest storms may produce hail over 2 inches in
diameter, isolated tornadoes, and localized wind gusts up to 60
MPH. The main timeframe for severe weather is between 4pm to 3am.
Severe weather is possible across the entire area, but the most
favored area for very large hail and tornadoes is southwest of a
line from Lexington to Hebron.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop on Monday, and
some of these may also become severe. The highest risk is
expected to be near and east of Highway 281 in the 3pm to 10pm
timeframe. The primary hazard will be large hail, but an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Patchy frost is possible as temperatures fall into the mid 30s in
areas north and west of the tri-cities Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.

Off and on chances for thunderstorms return to the area for the
Memorial Day weekend.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Billings Wright

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