Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
659 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for one more night of somewhat stronger storms,
  across southern Nebraska/northern Kansas, bringing potential
  for damaging winds after about 10 PM. There could be some
  beneficial rain as well.

- Cooler (though humid) temperatures Sunday with lingering
  showers and thunderstorms, will lead into one final rain
  chance Sunday night/early Monday.

- Temperatures will be warming later in the week along with a
  dry trend, likely lasting until next weekend for most areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

The early afternoon surface showed our sagging to stationary
front from roughly Nebraska City...to Hebron....and into
northwest Kansas. Cooler today across south central Nebraska,
cooler but still very hot/humid across north central with heat
index values of 98 to 104 common. There is plenty of moisture
across all of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas,
and only reinforced by moisture east/northeast flow. Farther
north, mid-level instability along the likely mid-level front
has persisted small showers even into this afternoon, though
they do continue to gradually diminish. Overall, we have seen a
clearing/return to sunshine trend over a the area along and
south of I-80 in recent hours.

The focus of the forecast is tonight, and especially across
southern Nebraska and north central Kansas. SPC has included
at least north central Kansas in a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms though that may need to be pushed farther north
a couple counties in south central Nebraska. After last nights
beast of a storm produced 60-90 mph winds in a narrow swath
across south central Nebraska, its hard to imagine we could
have something similar. However, with a upper level wave
approaching in Colorado, plenty of low level moisture and
adequate deep layer shear, all of which converge/interact
along/near the front boundary, we should expected at least
some High Plains convection working east into north central
Kansas and far southern Nebraska after sunset. We already
seeing convection develop off the Cheyenne ridge in the
southern Panhandle/southeast Wyoming area and that will
drive southeast, then east and ride along the front. The
primary hazard south be damaging winds gusts, with 70+
mph wind gusts possible for a time, roughly along and
south of Highway 6 in Nebraska and across north central
Kansas. Winds gusts of 70 mph will be possible. Pockets of a
quick 1-2 inch type rain are also and could be briefly
problematic for flood prone areas. As one works north, the
thunderstorms chances would seemingly be less but that mid-level
access could be a focal point for activity, at least on an
isolated basis on and off tonight. And finally, the low-level
jet does kick in after dark, but mainly just east of Highway 81
and into southeast NE and northeast KS. That area should be the
focus for more widespread storm development and flooding
potentially, but some isolated storms may develop around mid-
evening along and east of Highway 81 south of York. Regarding
any of the storms tonight, the potential for stronger winds
gusts should be between 9-10 pm and 4 am roughly speaking.

While Sunday may not be a "rainout", its appears there will be
showers and isolated thunderstorms lingering much of the day
(heck, we have that today still ongoing) as the upper wave
streams through the area. We will see both the combination of
lingering showers in the morning, and probably pesky development
all day long, though with the expected clouds that will keep
temperatures (and instability) down. Have raised precipitation
chances some and lowered highs on Sunday, with some areas
probably not reaching 80 degrees. However, it will still feel
plenty humid. Sunday night brings yet another risk for
showers/storms rolling off the Front Range, again favoring north
central Kansas and far southern Nebraska. However, the actual
frontal boundary is likely to be farther south into central/east
central Kansas, and that is where the stronger, more widespread
storm development should be.

Looking at Monday and through the work week, operational and
ensemble model trends support a gradual warming and drier
trend. Monday daytime may still be on the table for a bit more
of a precipitation chance than in the forecast, but upper level
heights build across the Central Plains, especially Wednesday
onward. That implies potentially low to no real precipitation
chances, but also the warmest conditions will come at weeks end.
However, even though it will warm up temperatures won't climb
excessively. Surface winds will increase some by Thursday and be
more steady in nature. Back to precipitation...it is summer and
hard to say what may spawn a storm and when/why, but as
previously mentioned, there doesn't appear to be much to work
with for rain chances as the forecast reflects that. There are
some signs of better precipitation chances around Aug. 17th/18th
but that is long ways out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Storms are continuing to develop across the high plains this
evening and are expected to continue to organize as they push
east through the evening hours. This should result in at least a
period of TSRAs and strong/gusty winds at both terminals, but
given the uncertainty in timing and further evolution,
maintained prob30 groups at both sites for much of the overnight
hours to account for the unfolding scenario. Outside of
thunderstorms, winds should be fairly light (<10 KTS) and
variable, becoming more northerly behind the initial line of
storms after daybreak Sunday. Continued mid-level cloud cover
and the potential for some addition SHRA/-TSRAs anticipated
through the day Sunday, with CIGS/VSBYS in storms expected to
reach MVFR levels, with VFR CIGS closer to 12 KFT outside
storms.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Moritz
AVIATION...Rossi

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
905 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

NEZ039>041-046>048-060-110215-
Valley-Greeley-Nance-Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Dawson-
905 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will impact much of the forecast area
tonight, some of which will be severe. The strongest storms are
expected generally along and south of Interstate 80 late tonight
through early Sunday morning. Hail to the size of quarters as
well as wind gusts of 60 to 75 MPH will be possible with any
severe storms, along with a quick 1 to 2 inches of rainfall.

The main time frame for any strong or severe thunderstorms will
be between 10 PM and 4 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain in the forecast
Sunday, Sunday night and Monday, though severe weather is not
expected.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ049-061>064-072>077-082>087-110215-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Polk-Buffalo-Hall-
Hamilton-York-Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-
Harlan-Franklin-Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
905 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 4AM. Please refer
to the watch statement for more information.

Scattered thunderstorms will impact much of the forecast area
tonight, some of which will be severe. The strongest storms are
expected generally along and south of Interstate 80 late tonight
through early Sunday morning. Hail to the size of quarters as
well as wind gusts of 60 to 75 MPH will be possible with any
severe storms, along with a quick 1 to 2 inches of rainfall.

The main time frame for any strong or severe thunderstorms will
be between 10 PM and 4 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain in the forecast
Sunday, Sunday night and Monday, though severe weather is not
expected.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Stump

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