Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1224 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong upper level low pressure system will bring rain,
  thunderstorm, and snow chances to the forecast area...along
  with strong NW winds Friday into Saturday. A few severe storms
  are not out of the question Friday afternoon for portions of
  Nebraska mainly along/east of HWY 281 (area in SPC Marginal
  Risk).

- Rain will switch over to snow Friday night into Saturday. Very
  light accumulations (less than 1 inch) are possible across our
  far northern areas...with a mix of rain and snow possible as
  far south as I-80.

- Friday evening through Saturday, strong NW winds will spread
  from west to east...sustained speeds of 30-40 MPH and gusts of
  45-55 MPH will be possible. These winds, combined with even
  light snow Friday night-Sat, could result in hazardous
  conditions. A High Wind Watch has been issued for areas
  roughly along and north of Highway 6.

- Widespread fire weather concerns return to the local area
  Saturday afternoon, with at least near-critical fire weather
  concerns likely. Additional fire weather concerns expected
  across at least parts of the local area Sunday through
  Tuesday.

- The next (cooler) system reaches the local area next Tuesday
  night through Wednesday. Still lots of uncertainty in precip
  type (although at least some minor snow accumulations look
  possible) and wind speeds (although at least windy conditions
  look probable).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

A warm, dry, and breezy day has been observed across the region
today. These conditions are creating dangerous fire weather
conditions, and a Red Flag warning remains in effect until 9 PM
this evening.

Later this evening, winds should relax some, but remain steady
out of the south at 10 to 15 mph, making for mild overnight
temperatures across the region. These southerly winds are ahead
of the anticipated area of low pressure across southern
California that will make its way into the central Plains
tomorrow afternoon. As this dynamic low emerges into the
plains, it will be rapidly deepening, bringing very strong winds
on its northern side as it crosses the area late Friday night
through Saturday.

Ahead of the low, however, the focus will be the chance for
strong to severe thunderstorms - which has increased over the
past 24 hours. What looked like questionable instability
yesterday looks much more promising with mesoscale models
attempting to develop a line of thunderstorms across the local
area Friday afternoon, and pushing them eastward by mid-evening.
With the proximity of the upper level low to the local area,
all forms of severe weather will be possible, although
marginally severe hail and 60+ mph wind gusts continue to look
like the primary threats. The 18Z HRRR is fairly aggressive
with thunderstorm coverage across the local area, but most
models are hinting at at least a similar scenario, so adjusted
pops and thunderstorm chances accordingly - extending the more
widespread thunderstorm chances into the early evening hours
Friday.

Friday night, rain could transition over to snow across our far
north, but this potential has trended downward - and we actually
do not have measurable snow in our current forecast for even our
most northern areas. That said, we do have a rain/snow mix as
far south as interstate 80, and any snow mixed in with the very
strong winds behind the rapidly intensifying area of low
pressure, could cause some visibility issues, so mentioned this
possibility in the High Wind Watch that was also issued earlier
today.

While significantly cooler air will filter in across the local
area Saturday, when high temperatures will likely only top out
near 50 degrees, drier air behind the low combined with the
very strong winds will bring a return to widespread fire
weather concerns. Additional fire weather concerns are expected
to start next week, with another upper level low possibly
impacting the plains mid-week. Still lots of uncertainty with
this system as the GFS is more of an open wave vs. the
closed/intensifying low depicted in the operations run of the
EC, but at this point there at least appears a decent chance for
some additional precipitation (maybe snow) and strong winds
late Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A more active weather regime setting up the next 24-36 hours
as high winds develop later today along with some rain showers.

First, screaming low level jet just off the surface will result
in non-convective low level wind shear the next 3-5 hours before
those winds shift east (first out of the KEAR area then KGRI).
RADAR VAD wind profiles point toward 50KT jet as low as 1K AGL.
Expect VFR conditions the rest of the night with only limited
high clouds at most.

The VFR conditions will continue most of the day despite a
strong low pressure system winding up and moving east of the
area by evening. Priortothe low passage, winds remain mostly in
check (not that strong) with only mid/high clouds. Best shot
for thunderstorms is generally east of KGRI, though a stray
shower is possible late in the afternoon around KGRI, and
PROB30 is included in the forecast.

Once the low passes by early evening, winds shift to the
northwest and rapidly increase in speed, with gusts over
40kts by mid evening. Bands of light rain will also develop
on the backside of the low impacting both KGRI/KEAR. Rain is
not expected to be heavy, thus keeping visibility up but MFVR
ceilings are possible.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Watch from this evening through Saturday evening for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
922 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
150230-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
922 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Overnight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There are several possible weather concerns Friday into Saturday.
Details follow in generally chronological order.

- Friday afternoon near-critical fire weather:
Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible
for a few hours Friday afternoon primarily southeast of a line
from York to Red Cloud Nebraska, to Plainville Kansas. These areas
are most favored to experience both southerly winds gusting at
least 25 to 35 MPH, along with relative humidity as low as around
25 percent.

- Friday afternoon and evening thunderstorm potential:
Primarily between 3 and 10 PM, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will be possible almost anywhere in our area. While most, if not
all of these storms should be fairly weak, there is a Marginal
Risk that a few storms could become strong to severe, particularly
within Nebraska counties east of Highway 281. Should any severe
storms develop, the main hazards would be hail to the size of
quarters, and/or wind gusts up to around 60 MPH. Although a very
low probability, a brief tornado cannot be totally ruled out.

- Friday evening into Saturday strong northwest winds:
Strong northwest winds will affect our entire area on the backside
of departing low pressure. Sustained speeds of 30 to 40 MPH and
gusts of 45 to 55 MPH will be common, particularly Friday night
through Saturday morning. The overall-highest potential for gusts
of at least 50 MPH will focus near and north of Interstate 80 in
Nebraska, where a High Wind Watch has been issued. Please refer to
the Watch statement for more details.

- Saturday morning snow potential:
There is a chance that rain could turn to slushy, wet snow for a
few hours Saturday morning, mainly in Nebraska counties north and
northeast of the Tri Cities. Any snow accumulation appears very
minimal, likely one-half inch or less, but visibility could be
reduced due to the combination of falling snow and strong winds.

- Saturday afternoon near-critical to critical fire weather:
Despite cooler temperatures, the combination of northwest winds
gusting at least 30 to 40 MPH and relative humidity as low as 15
to 25 percent will promote widespread near-critical to critical
fire weather conditions.

Briefly looking beyond Saturday, at least near-critical fire
weather conditions appear likely across much of our area each
afternoon from Sunday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any potential severe weather
associated with thunderstorms Friday afternoon, any possible
damage from strong northwest winds Friday evening into Saturday,
and also any measurements of possible snow that might occur
Saturday morning.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Pfannkuch