Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
251 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
  afternoon through tonight, mainly near and south of the
  Missouri River.

- Early summer conditions continue through the week with warm
  temperatures, increased humidity, and chances for afternoon and
  evening thunderstorms.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A southwest flow aloft with relative deep moisture in place will
continue to keep the area under subtle chances of strong to severe
storms for the next couple days.

Today, a shortwave is expected to eject across the region during
the afternoon to provide large-scale ascent. Southeast low level
flow continues to push higher dewpoints (mid 50s to low 60s) into
eastern Montana, for higher confidence of isolated heavy rain from
thunderstorms along with strong winds and large hail this
afternoon through tonight. Also, a tornado cannot be ruled out.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Average to better than average confidence in severe thunderstorms
probability this afternoon through this evening. Average to below
average confidence for the same after tonight.

Days 1 through 2, I used a hi-res model blend for more detail in
winds and precip probability. Day 3 and beyond: NBM

&&

.AVIATION...

PATTERN: Multiple weather elements are in place to support and
sustain severe thunderstorms for most of eastern Montana during
this TAF cycle, mainly between 21Z and 05Z tonight. The overall
flow pattern will continue, albeit with probably less severe
potential Monday and beyond.

FLIGHT CATEGORIES: VFR to start, then IFR and worse if a
thunderstorm happens to pass directly over a TAF site. Main
concern is 21Z to 05Z. Expect amendments.

WINDS: Generally light and variable, until severe thunderstorms
result in erratic gusty winds in excess of 40 or 50 kts. By Monday
morning, winds will set up from the NW around 10 kts.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

weather.gov/glasgow