Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
227 PM MDT Sat May 10 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Enhanced fire weather conditions continue across northeast MT
  with A Red Flag Warning in effect through this evening.

- Well above normal temperatures expected through the weekend,
  with a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms expanding eastward
  across the state.

- An active weather pattern develops next week with cooler
  temperatures and several chances for rainfall, especially
  beginning Wednesday.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

The upper ridge, which is firmly in place across the region, will
slowly break down through the weekend and into early next week as
a strong upper low builds into the Pacific northwest. This
pattern will support very warm temperatures, low humidity, and
breezy winds through this evening. This will continue to enhance
fire weather conditions, and maintain the need for the Red Flag
Warning through this evening (See the Fire Weather discussion
below). Otherwise, above normal temperatures will continue Sunday
and Monday along with a few rounds, low end probabilities, for
light rainfall.

The precipitation chances this evening through Monday will be the
result of a frontal boundary passing eastward across the region.
Pre-frontal showers and thunderstorms this evening over central
Montana could generate some gusty winds, especially for areas
along and west of a line from near Scobey to Glasgow to Winnett.
These storms could be marginally severe.

Tuesday through next week, the strong upper low which built into
the Pacific northwest over the weekend, will settle into the
Plains and generate cooler temperatures and several chances for
rain into Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence is high for hot temperatures this weekend, confidence
is average for repeating showers and thunderstorm chances next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR. A frontal system slowly moving eastward across the
region this weekend, will generate a chance for showers and storms
late through the evening, especially near KGGW and KOLF. There is
a low probability (5-10%) that thunderstorms could produce a
severe wind gust near KGGW. There is a trend toward a period of
LLWS possible at KSDY and KGDV developing around 06z til around
12z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A strong upper level ridge will maintain very low humidity and
well above normal temperatures across northeast Montana. The hot
and dry conditions, combined with breezy winds and limited green-
up, will maintain an enhanced fire weather threat into this
evening. Additionally, there is a risk for marginally severe
thunderstorms over the western fire weather zones. Any
thunderstorm wind gust would likely enhance fire related impacts,
and therefore the Red Flag Warning continues into this evening.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for
Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck
Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties- Northern
Valley and Northern Phillips Counties-Southern Petroleum and
Southern Garfield Counties-The Lower Missouri River Breaks
including the Charles M Russell National Wildlife Refuge.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow