Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
204 PM MST Sun Mar 2 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- After today, more seasonable temperatures are expected through
  midweek.

- Light precipitation is expected Monday afternoon into Tuesday
  morning in the form of rain quickly transitioning to snow.

- A dry and slow warm up begins Wednesday into the weekend.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

An upper ridge over the region will break down today as the upper
low off the California coast moves onshore. As the low
transitions through the Four-corners region, it is phased with a
trough in the Canada flow, and will pull colder air into the
state.

While the main focus for weather across the West will be the
development of a Colorado low, warm moist air will be transported
northward to meet the colder Canadian airmass. This bring bring an
increasing chance for precipitation to the region from Monday
afternoon into Tuesday morning. There could be a brief period of
rain as the precipitation moves east, but should quickly
transition to snow. Accumulations will be generally light, with
around an inch or less of snow expected for most of the region.

Temperatures will bottom out on Tuesday at near normal values,
then begin to recover on Wednesday as the upper ridge rebounds
across the west. The pattern supports temperatures approaching
record warmth by the weekend, with the NBM 50th percentile
currently matching the record high of 65 at Glasgow on Sunday.
Depending on winds, marginal fire weather concerns are not out of
the question by then.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

No deviations were made to the base forecast at this time.
However, potential adjustments to temperatures this week will be
due to snow cover and to capture the unusual warmth. Confidence is
high for widespread light snow Monday night and much warmer/drier
than normal conditions late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - IFR

DISCUSSION: Clouds will overspread the area starting this evening
and there is medium confidence from 10-17Z for patchy freezing fog
impacting KGGW and KOLF with IFR ceilings. By the end of the TAF
cycle around 00Z, an area of light snow approaches from the west
with widespread ceilings/visibility dropping back to at least
MVFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Yellowstone River:
The Flood Watch remains in effect for the Yellowstone River for
Dawson and Richland counties.

The Dawson county DES reported yesterday afternoon that there is
a large ice jam upstream of Glendive that has shown signs of
moving as river spotters have heard "popping and shifting". This
is similar to what happened in 2014 when there was a sudden rise
in levels in the Glendive area and brought substantial flooding.

Poplar River: The advisory was cancelled due to the water level
below action stage and slowly falling.

Milk River: Witnesses and gauge data were observing rising levels
from Saco to Nashua. Inflow from creeks upstream still remain
high (Frenchmen in particular) has contributed to rising levels at
the gauge on the Milk in Saco. A forecast will be available for
the next couple of days at the Glasgow gauge.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Dawson-Richland.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow