Wind Advisory 4, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Anderson County, TX, Bell County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Delta County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Rains County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
152 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A critical to extreme fire weather threat will materialize on
  Friday across all of North and Central Texas. The most
  significant wildfire threat will be west of the I-35 corridor.

- Occasional damaging non-thunderstorm winds near 60-65 mph are
  expected on Friday generally along and west of Interstate 35.

- With the exception of Sunday, the elevated to critical fire
  weather threat will continue on a daily basis through at least
  the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday/

An unusual high wind and fire weather event is expected to unfold on
Friday.

Quiet weather will prevail today with west winds returning out of
the south this afternoon. High temperatures will peak in the 80s to
low 90s. While low relative humidity between 10-25% is expected
across a large portion of the area today, wind speeds near 10-15 mph
or less will keep the potential for significant wildfires low.

Gradient winds will strengthen late tonight in response to a
deepening surface low near the Front Range of the Rockies as a
potent mid-level trough swings into the Four Corners Region. As
the trough moves east into the Plains Friday morning, a 100+ kt
500 mb jet streak will round the base of the trough, stretching
across portions of West Texas through Oklahoma, oriented from
southwest to northeast. Surface heating will induce strong
vertical mixing beginning Friday morning, allowing a dryline to
quickly mix eastward. Downward momentum transfer will result in
increasing wind speeds behind the dryline, with peak wind speeds
expected to occur during the afternoon hours. Sustained winds
between 20-35 mph with frequent gusts above 50 mph are expected,
with isolated wind gusts near 60-65 mph anticipated mainly near
and west of the I-35 corridor. Sporadic wind damage is expected
with the higher-end wind gusts, including (but not limited to)
downed trees and power lines.

One caveat worth mentioning is that there are still some
discrepancies in the placement of the jet streak on Friday, which
will affect where the strongest winds (>60 mph) occur. Placement
further south/southeast (closer to our forecast area) would
likely result in these higher-end wind gusts (60+ mph) across a
larger portion of the forecast area. The opposite is true if the
jet streak is displaced further north. Regardless, it will be
very windy, but we will have to watch this feature closely to
determine where the strongest winds will end up occurring on
Friday.

One other caveat is that there remains some slight uncertainty in
how much the boundary layer will decouple tonight. This
introduces some uncertainty with the expected onset time of
stronger wind gusts (35-40 mph). There are some indications that
we could see some terrain-induced wind gusts near 35-40 mph
overnight (after 3 am), and the best potential for this would be
across portions of Central Texas. There is a low-end potential for
portions of North Texas to see these stronger gusts, but this is
rather unlikely at this time. Current thinking is that the
stronger winds aloft will not be mixed down until surface heating
begins post-sunrise Friday morning.

By late Friday morning/midday, relative humidity will plummet to
15-25% behind the dryline, reaching a minimum of 10-20% for most
areas during the afternoon. The very strong winds, low humidity,
dry fuels, and above normal temperatures will result in a critical
to extreme wildfire threat across the region, which will peak
during the afternoon hours. The most significant threat will be
west of the I-35 corridor. Extreme wildfire behavior is expected,
and fire containment will be extremely difficult given the
expected winds. Avoid any and all activities that could start
wildfires!

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 317 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/
/Friday Night through Wednesday/

Strong gradient winds will begin to die down a bit by Friday night
as a deep surface cyclone pulls off to the northeast. Any
lingering fire activity may continue to be problematic into the
nighttime hours with minimal RH recovery expected. An upstream
trailing shortwave will swing through the Southern Plains on
Saturday and we'll likely see an uptick in wind speeds again
particularly across our Central TX counties where RH values will
again be 15 to 20%. Fire activity is likely to continue into
Saturday. Surface high pressure will build into the region on
Sunday and winds will finally be generally light, but this will be
short lived as another shortwave will spread into the western
CONUS by Monday. Southerly winds will again increase and become
breezy both Monday and Tuesday as temperatures climb back into the
mid 80s. Unfortunately, moisture return will be slow and we'll
likely have to contend with additional significant fire weather
concerns through the middle part of next week. The aforementioned
shortwave will swing through the Southern Plains on Wednesday
dragging a cold front southward through the region. It doesn't
look like we'll have much moisture to work with and this front as
of now is expected to come through dry.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR and a gradual return of southerly winds is expected this
afternoon with wind speeds AOB 10 knots. Wind speeds will increase
to 10-15 knots after 06Z, with very breezy/gusty southwest
developing Friday morning. Gusts near 30-40 knots will become
common beginning around 15Z and will continue to strengthen
through midday/early afternoon. Winds will shift out of the west
with the arrival of a dryline around 17-18Z, with wind speeds
increasing to 45-50 knots. Isolated gusts in excess of 60 knots
will be possible during the afternoon. Significant crosswind
impacts are expected at all airports.

Blowing dust will also become a concern as the westerly winds
strengthen on Friday. Timing of the arrival of any dust and the
magnitude of any visibility reductions are uncertain at this time.
It will likely need to be included in the TAF once these details
become more certain. Wind gusts are expected to weaken to around
25-30 knots near 00Z tomorrow evening.

Barnes

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  62  82  55  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                89  62  83  56  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               82  59  80  52  69 /   0   0   5   0   5
Denton              86  60  78  49  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            85  60  79  52  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              88  62  82  57  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             84  60  81  50  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           88  62  84  53  74 /   0   0   0   5   0
Temple              92  60  87  52  76 /   0   0   0   5   0
Mineral Wells       89  59  79  49  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
TXZ091>093-100>104-115>120-129>134-141>145.

&&