Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
137 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clusters of thunderstorms will likely move through North Texas
  overnight, weakening as they approach the I-35 corridor.

- Daily storm chances will continue into the weekend with a
  continued potential for some severe weather and flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday/

We are currently monitoring two separate MCSs that have developed
over the past few hours: one which is approaching from our
northwest and the second which is currently located in the Hill
Country. We are confident that both will maintain their intensity
as they move east/southeast through the remainder of the night, as
the nocturnal LLJ continues to strengthen with minimal inhibition
and ~2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. As a result, there will be a threat for
occasional damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph with each
complex of storms. A few somewhat discrete storms have developed
on the northern edge of the Central Texas MCS, and these will
continue to pose a threat for large hail. The severe threat should
decrease as both systems encounter a more weakly sheared
environment as they move east, but there is still some uncertainty
in how quickly any weakening will occur. A few strong gusts may
remain possible as these systems approach the I-35 corridor later
this morning (~4-7 am).

Both systems will exit to the east around late morning/midday,
with a lull in thunderstorm activity becoming increasingly likely
this afternoon given tonight's extensive convection. There is
still a chance we'll see some recovery this afternoon, so we will
maintain at least a low potential for additional storm development
along any lingering outflow boundaries. However, PoPs may need to
be lowered further depending on how the ongoing convection
continues to evolve through the remainder of the night.

Additional chances for showers and storms are expected Wednesday
night as convection along an active dryline approaches the area
once again. There will be a potential for the development of one
or more clusters of storms (similar to tonight), and this
activity will likely linger into Thursday across the region.
However, these clusters of storms will be more likely to remain
disorganized as shear will be relatively weak. Therefore, the
severe threat should be fairly isolated, with damaging wind gusts
and hail expected to be the main hazards.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /New/
/Thursday Night Onward/

Our active weather pattern will persist as we head into the
weekend as North and Central Texas remain in a moist and unstable
airmass. By early Friday morning, a few showers and thunderstorms
may be underway as a shortwave progresses east across southern
Oklahoma. Although there is a large degree of uncertainty in
overall coverage during this time frame, nearly 1500 J/kg of
instability will be in place. This should be enough to perhaps
produce a strong to marginally severe thunderstorm.

The morning thunderstorm activity may leave a west to east
oriented outflow boundary that could become the focus for
additional thunderstorm activity in the afternoon.

Mid-level ridging across Central Texas will commence late Friday
and continue through the rest of the weekend. This should
effectively lower rain chances through the rest of Central Texas.
Across North Texas, rain chances will continue, although much
lower compared to previous days. This will be due to the
shortwaves continuing make their way from West Texas to Oklahoma.
The severe weather potential this weekend will likely remain
across West Texas, where dryline thunderstorm activity is
expected.

The start of a new week will bring a renewed thunderstorm threat
as the dryline shifts eastward, closer to North and Central Texas.
Our first thunderstorm potential will be late Monday as a
shortwave moves overhead. At this time, the highest rain chances
will be across western North Texas where storm probabilities will
remain between 30-50%.

Tuesday's storm potential will depend on any remnant outflow
boundaries lingering behind any early morning convection. Beyond
Tuesday, a cold front is expected to push through on Wednesday.
Rain chances are expected to increase along the front as it slides
from north to south across our region. Slightly cooler
temperatures can be expected to finish out next week.

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Two independent clusters of storms are currently moving
east/southeast and will impact the terminals later this morning
(most likely between 10-12Z). The extent of convection on the back
side of these clusters remains a little uncertain, so it's
possible the VCTS/TSRA window may need to be slightly extended
depending on how things evolve the remainder of the night. Gusty
west to northwest winds will be possible. MVFR ceilings will
develop in advance of the storms and will linger through much of
the morning, eventually lifting to VFR around late morning/midday.
Given how extensive tonight's storms are, it may be difficult to
get any additional storm development late this afternoon.
Therefore, it's possible we will be able to remove the VCTS from
the TAFs for the afternoon, but this will be assessed further
over the next several hours.

MVFR ceilings may potentially develop as early as 02Z Thursday
across D10 airspace. For now, have introduced MVFR ceilings at 05Z
for the Metroplex TAFs, but this may need some adjustment
depending on how guidance trends throughout the day. Additional
storms will approach from the west Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, but this activity likely wouldn't be near any of the
terminals until after 12Z Thursday. Winds will generally remain
out of the south/southeast around 10 knots through the period.

Barnes

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  81  66  81  67 /  70  80  40  70  60
Waco                68  82  66  83  67 /  40  50  30  70  30
Paris               63  79  63  78  64 /  10  40  50  70  60
Denton              63  80  63  80  62 /  80  80  40  70  60
McKinney            64  80  64  79  64 /  60  80  50  70  60
Dallas              68  82  66  82  67 /  70  80  40  70  60
Terrell             65  81  65  81  65 /  30  70  40  70  50
Corsicana           68  82  67  83  67 /  30  70  30  70  40
Temple              66  82  66  83  67 /  40  40  30  60  20
Mineral Wells       63  81  63  83  63 /  80  70  30  70  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
125 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

TXZ129-230715-
Eastland TX-
125 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Eastland
County through 215 AM CDT...

At 125 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Atwell, or 10 miles south of Cisco, moving north at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Cisco around 145 AM CDT.
  Lake Cisco around 155 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Scranton, Nimrod,
Pleasant Hill, and Sabanno.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 324 and 338.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
north central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3248 9911 3245 9883 3215 9891 3216 9912
TIME...MOT...LOC 0625Z 184DEG 17KT 3223 9902

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Hernandez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
140 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

TXZ100-115-129-230745-
Stephens TX-Eastland TX-Young TX-
140 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Young, northern
Eastland and Stephens Counties through 245 AM CDT...

At 140 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Olney to 11 miles northeast of Woodson to
near Hubbard Creek Reservoir to near Ibex. Movement was southeast at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Crystal Falls, Olney, Breckenridge, and Hubbard Creek Reservoir
  around 145 AM CDT.
  Lake Graham around 155 AM CDT.
  Lake Daniel around 200 AM CDT.
  Graham and Gunsight around 205 AM CDT.
  Necessity around 210 AM CDT.
  Caddo and Possum Kingdom Lake around 215 AM CDT.
  Eastland around 225 AM CDT.
  Ranger and Lake Olden around 230 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Kokomo, Staff,
Newcastle, Murray, Jean, Loving, Harpersville, Morton Valley,
Eliasville, and Ivan.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 334 and 355.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
north central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3255 9909 3283 9910 3296 9903 3296 9895
      3340 9895 3340 9842 3295 9843 3295 9857
      3294 9858 3252 9858 3222 9870 3249 9912
TIME...MOT...LOC 0640Z 299DEG 25KT 3334 9882 3310 9888 3285 9899 3262
9917

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hernandez

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
311 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

TXZ130>132-230915-
Hood TX-Erath TX-Somervell TX-
311 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Somervell, central Erath and southwestern Hood Counties through 415
AM CDT...

At 311 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stephenville, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Stephenville around 315 AM CDT.
  Bluff Dale around 330 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Tolar, Alexander,
Clairette, Johnsville, Paluxy, Selden, Harbin, Chalk Mountain,
Duffau, and Rainbow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
north central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3194 9819 3214 9836 3251 9804 3225 9770
TIME...MOT...LOC 0811Z 222DEG 18KT 3216 9814

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hernandez

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>