Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
124 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and
  a few spin-up tornadoes are expected 3AM tonight through noon
  Tuesday morning. This will impact DFW during the morning rush
  hour on Tuesday.

- Gusty winds between midnight and 6 AM are possible ahead of
  tonight's storms, with gusts up to 50 mph possible. Similar
  winds are expected Tuesday afternoon behind the front.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected along
  and west of the Interstate 35 corridor Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Afternoon/

...This Afternoon and Evening...

Conditions across the area this afternoon will be breezy and
mostly cloudy. Winds will be out of the south-southeast at 10 to
20 mph. As the afternoon and evening progresses, with the approach
of the primary disturbance from out west, a gradual uptick in
showery activity is anticipated across much of north-central and
northeast Texas. The edge of low-level cloud cover gives way to
sunshine along a line from Abilene to Wichita Falls. It is here
and just west of this line that there will be a brief window this
afternoon/evening for a stray thunderstorm or two to develop.

While capping remains robust across much of the area (as evident
by the persistent low-level stratus), diurnal heating further
west will be able to weaken this capping inversion over the course
of the afternoon. At the surface, winds are weakly confluent,
enhancing a weak moisture gradient along the edge of the low-level
cloud deck. Aloft, some short-term guidance hints at a subtle
low-amplitude trough embedded in southwesterly flow ejecting into
the southern Plains this afternoon. Associated height falls and
weak mid-level CAA will set the stage for a highly conditional,
yet non-zero chance of a stray strong thunderstorm or two
developing along this boundary currently stretching from Abilene
to Wichita Falls. The primary limiting factor is the capping
inversion, as dynamic forcing likely won't be enough to overcome
convective inhibition. Nonetheless, there is an outside chance (10
to 15 percent) that just enough lift is achieved to initiate a
thunderstorm or two during peak heating this afternoon. Should a
storm go up, it would likely be between the 4PM and 8PM time frame
west of US-281. Hail up to quarter size would be the primary
concern should these storms develop.

...Tonight into Tuesday Morning...

Tonight, the primary upper-level disturbance and associated vort
max will eject out into the Great Plains. At the surface,
persistent southerly winds at 15 to 25 mph will aid in the
transport of dewpoints in the 60s into western and southern
Oklahoma. In our area, dew points will most likely increase into
the mid 60s by midnight tonight. In advance of the approaching
Pacific cold front, a dry line will extend from the Texas Hill
Country northward into western Oklahoma. This will be the primary
focus for convective initiation during the overnight hours.

There are two additional environmental factors that are coming
together to promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorms
tonight. First, substantial height falls and CAA aloft will help
steepen lapse rates considerably. This co-located with the
surface moisture to the east of the dryline will result in a
narrow corridor extending from central Texas northward into
central Oklahoma of 1000 to 1500 J/kg of CAPE. Some of the more
aggressive CAMs depict isolated pockets of nearly 2000 J/kg.
Furthermore, a very strong low-level jet is expected to develop
over the area, with flow at 850 hPa likely somewhere between 60
and 70 knots. This will result in very strong low-level shear,
with 0-1 km shear magnitudes 40 to 45 knots.

Sometime around or just after midnight tonight, the Pacific cold
front will overtake the dry line. The forcing for ascent along the
front coupled with the warm sector environment discussed above
will support rapid and widespread thunderstorm development from
the Big Country northward into western Oklahoma. These storms are
expected to quickly grow upscale, and a resultant line of strong
to severe thunderstorms should move into our western forecast area
by 3 AM. Given the strong forcing for ascent and modest
instability ahead of this line, these storms are expected to
persist through the morning hours and quickly push east, moving
through the DFW metroplex sometime between 4 AM and 8 AM. The
focus for severe potential will be along and north of the I-20
corridor, where line configuration will be more meridional and
support a more balanced cold pool with the near-storm environment.
The primary hazards with this portion of the line will be
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and spin-up tornadoes. South of
the I-20 corridor, CAMs generally support a line configuration
that is more southwest to northeast. This orientation will be less
favorable for persistent severe thunderstorms, though isolated
wind gusts or a brief tornado will still be possible with any
bowing segments that can locally reorient the squall line into a
more favorable configuration.

To further complicate the scenario, additional convection will
develop ahead of this line as the morning progresses. This may
ultimately help mitigate the strength of the main line as it moves
east into eastern Texas by stabilizing the downstream
environment. However, this initial activity, should updrafts be
ingested into the main line, may locally enhance tornado
potential, primarily along the I-35 corridor between the 5 and 8
am timeframe. Storms should move east into the Ark-La-Tex and out
of our area by noon on Tuesday.

It is also worth noting that there will be the potential for
strong winds ahead of this line of storms. After midnight,
scattered rain showers in the warm advection regime of this system
will help mix down very strong winds just above the surface from
the low-level jet. This will support periodic wind gusts up to 50
mph.

...Tuesday Afternoon and Evening...

Very strong westerly winds are expected to develop on the back
side of this storm system Tuesday afternoon and evening. Current
guidance suggests sustained winds 30 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50
mph. Additionally, minimum relative humidities along and west of
the I-35 corridor and south of I-20 will drop into the teens and
lower 20s. This will result in very high to critical fire weather
danger across the region. See the Fire Weather Discussion (FWF)
for more details.

Darrah

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 313 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025/
/Tuesday Night and Beyond/

A cooler, drier airmass will settle over North and Central Texas
late Tuesday into Wednesday as northwest winds prevail behind our
early Tuesday weather-making system. Expect low in the mid 30s to
low 40s both Wednesday morning and Thursday morning and afternoon
highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s Wednesday afternoon. Winds will
shift back out of the south by early Thursday beneath mid/upper
ridging causing temperatures to crawl back into the low 70s in
Central Texas Thursday and eventually the 70s and low 80s region-
wide Friday afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions may
materialize each afternoon through Friday, especially west of I-35
where breezy winds and afternoon RH below 25% are expected to
overlap.

There are signals in the medium-range guidance that another storm
system will transit over the Plains in the late Friday-Saturday
timeframe dropping a cold front into North Texas and increasing
rain chances to start the weekend.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday/

A complex storm system will bring significant aviation impacts to
the region tonight into tomorrow. A line of strong to severe
thunderstorms will impact the I-35 corridor between 11Z and 14Z.
There may be isolated instances of damaging wind gusts out of the
southwest of 50 to 60 knots (24040G55KT), but coverage of these
severe wind gusts don't look to be enough to put into the TAFs.
Spin-up tornadoes will also be possible with this line of storms.
Ceilings will improve quickly, likely rebounding to VFR within 2
hours of the leading line of storms. From 15Z Tuesday to 00Z
Wednesday, winds will become almost due westerly and strengthen to
25 to 35 knots. Gusts of 40 to 45 knots will be possible,
especially after 18Z.

Darrah

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested. Even if activation is not
locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the
National Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  61  71  44  61 /  30 100  60   0   0
Waco                76  63  73  46  64 /  20  90  60   0   0
Paris               66  57  68  41  56 /  10  80 100   0   0
Denton              72  57  71  39  59 /  30 100  50   0   0
McKinney            69  60  70  40  59 /  30  90  80   0   0
Dallas              72  62  71  44  61 /  30  90  70   0   0
Terrell             71  61  71  43  59 /  20  90  90   0   0
Corsicana           74  65  74  45  61 /  20  90  90   0   0
Temple              77  63  76  45  66 /  20  80  60   0   0
Mineral Wells       80  55  72  41  63 /  20 100  20   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for TXZ129-130-141>143-156.

&&