Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
308 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening mainly
  across our far eastern counties. All severe weather hazards are
  possible.

- Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms will
  overspread all of North and Central Texas tonight into
  Saturday. Heavy rainfall and flooding will be the main threat.

- Much cooler temperatures will arrive Saturday night and prevail
  through early next week. A few locations may dip just below
  freezing west of I-35/I-35W both Saturday night and Sunday
  night.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 134 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025/
/Through Saturday Night/

Two rounds of thunderstorms will occur through the short term
period, the first of which is in the process of developing as of 1
PM. Widespread ascent near and above a quasi-stationary frontal
zone draped from Temple to Sulphur Springs is resulting in
convective development on both sides of the boundary. At this
point, it does not appear likely that this boundary will be
capable of pivoting much farther northwestward than its present
location which will confine surface-based convective hazards to
our far eastern counties this afternoon. The ongoing
thunderstorms are entirely elevated over the I-35 corridor above a
very cool 50-60F boundary layer. A much more unstable airmass
east of the boundary characterized by SBCAPE exceeding 3500 J/kg
will easily support surface-based thunderstorms this afternoon
with all severe hazards possible. Convective mode remains
uncertain which will end up dictating the primary hazard(s), but
an initial supercellular mode would certainly favor predominant
hail and tornado threats. By late afternoon, some degree of linear
organization will probably result in a transition to a more
prominent wind threat as convection shifts further into East
Texas. Strong low-level flow and large hodograph curvature will
support a tornado threat with both discrete cells as well as
within linear segments. The severe threat will end as this
convection exits the CWA to the east early this evening, but
isolated elevated storms may linger across parts of Central Texas
through the evening hours as moderate ascent continues.

Overnight, our next round of widespread showers and thunderstorms
will be developing off to the west which will advance into the
CWA after midnight. With the entire forecast area positioned
within the post-frontal cool sector by this time period, the
primary threats will be hail and flooding with perhaps a very
localized wind threat if any organized segments can become
established on its leading edge. PoPs will be near 100% area-wide.
While this round will be fast-moving within strong mid-level
flow, some portions of this complex may train across parts of
East Texas which will locally increase the flooding threat. No
changes will be made to the ongoing Flood Watch configuration,
with our northeastern zones still at greatest risk for flooding
following multiple rounds of rainfall. Scattered showers and
isolated storms are likely to continue into the daytime Saturday
evening, although the main round of storms will have moved off to
the east. While these are unlikely to be severe, they could
produce frequent lightning and small hail.

Most of the area will remain socked in with post-frontal stratus
and patchy fog into the day tomorrow before perhaps some partial
clearing occurs late in the afternoon. Cloudy and cool
conditions will persist though as low-level moisture wraps around
the departing low. A stout northerly breeze will make it feel more
like a late February day rather than an early April one. One
final round of light precipitation will spread into parts of North
Texas towards sunset tomorrow evening as the upper trough axis
passes overhead, with light rain/mist affecting areas mainly along
and north of I-20 overnight into Sunday morning.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Onward/

Gradual clearing of the low cloud deck will take place during the
daytime Sunday, but cool post-frontal air will remain in place
with highs only reaching the 50s. The clearing skies and lessening
winds will result in favorable radiational cooling heading into
Monday morning, and this may allow for some of our outlying
northwestern zones to fall to the freezing mark. About 20-30% of
ensemble members support at least some sporadic 32F readings in
our western CWA. The clearing skies and eventual return to
southerly winds will allow a gradual warming trend to ensue
through the upcoming workweek. Moisture return will largely be
nonexistent through most of the extended period, and this will
cause rain chances to also be absent through the entirety of next
week. Overall, we'll have pleasant early spring weather with
dewpoints in the 40s and 50s while temperatures eventually return
to near normal in the 70s and lower 80s towards the end of the
week.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 134 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025/
/18z TAFs/

Poor flying conditions will continue through the TAF period with
IFR/LIFR cigs and north winds prevailing. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are underway at all airports as of 1730z.
The greater thunderstorm potential will remain off to the east of
the TAF sites this afternoon which is likely to disrupt the
cornerposts and eastbound traffic especially between 20-00z. A
lull in precip is expected for the airports this evening before
the next round of widespread thunderstorm activity spreads into
the area overnight. Several hours of thunderstorm activity is
expected to impact all TAF sites between about 09-13z which will
gradually taper off to the east tomorrow morning.

-Stalley

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested this afternoon and
evening east of I-35. Even if activation is not locally
requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National
Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    52  59  39  56  39 / 100  90  50   5   0
Waco                56  61  40  55  37 / 100  70  10   0   0
Paris               54  60  40  50  35 / 100 100  70  10   0
Denton              47  56  35  55  33 / 100  90  70   5   0
McKinney            51  58  39  55  36 / 100 100  60   5   0
Dallas              53  60  40  55  39 / 100  90  50   5   0
Terrell             54  63  40  55  36 / 100  90  40   5   0
Corsicana           57  67  43  55  39 / 100  90  20   5   0
Temple              56  66  40  58  37 / 100  70  10   0   0
Mineral Wells       49  55  36  58  34 / 100  80  60   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TXZ094-095-105>107-123.

Tornado Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ107-122-123-135-
146>148-160>162-174-175.

&&