Flash Flood Warning 71, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
703 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of heavy rainfall are likely tonight through Friday.
  Areas across Central Texas have the highest flash flooding
  threat overnight tonight, with locations near/east of the I-35
  corridor maintaining the highest threat Thursday morning.

- Isolated strong storms are possible mainly in Central Texas
  tonight and Thursday.

- Rain chances will decrease over the weekend and early next week,
  but a warming trend will begin with highs in the 90s returning.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Thursday Night/

A gradual increase in storms has occurred across the region in the
last 1-2 hours, with this trend continuing as the evening
progresses. Clearing for areas west of I-35 this afternoon has
contributed to a greater axis of instability (MLCAPE > 1000 J/Kg)
with mid-level lapse rates also improving from the earlier 5-6
C/km to 6-6.5 C/km across western Central Texas, based on latest
RAP analysis. A very weak axis of surface convergence exists
generally near where current convection is ongoing, with diffuse
boundaries expected to impact further development as well. A few
stronger storms may contain gusty winds and hail this evening, but
the primary concern will be flooding with increasing moisture
transport particularly across Central Texas (PWATs nearing 2" for
much of the area). Training and/or multiple rounds of convection
blossoming over this area will result in the heaviest rainfall
amounts tonight residing generally along and south of a line from
Comanche--Hillsboro--Athens. Fairly slow storm motions combined
with efficient rain rates, thanks to enough (but not too much)
instability as well as plentiful moisture will result in QPF
tonight ranging from 1-3 inches. There is also a notable signal
for significant enough rain amounts to result in considerable
flash flooding, with > 30% chance of more than 5 inches in some
locations. The exact bullseye of this is uncertain, but favored
along/south of the locations previously mentioned. For context,
an initial 23Z WoFS run even highlights a 90th Percentile (10%
chance/"worst case" scenario) bullseye as high as 9 inches over
the next 5 hours.

Coverage of showers and storms will increase and slowly shift
eastward overnight, then expand in area to near/east of the DFW
Metroplex by the early morning hours. This will then shift the
axis of heaviest rain east of I-35 through tomorrow as gradual
clearing starts to occur out west. Areas near/east of I-35 in
North Texas can expect similar rainfall amounts mentioned above,
although higher end/"worst case" amounts are likely to be closer
to 5". By mid-morning, many locations should be drying out,
although storm chances will linger mainly for East Texas through
the rest of the day before tapering off overnight. A few stronger
storms may occur with any of the activity tonight and tomorrow,
but again, the overall severe threat remains low.

Gordon

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 213 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025/
Update:
Not much has changed in the long-term period as we wrap-up the
week with a chance of showers and storms. The best chances (30%)
will be for East Texas as the upper level low finally moves
northeastward out of our area over the weekend. A warming trend
will also take places into early next week as temperatures return
to the 90s.

Sanchez

Previous Discussion:
/Thursday Night Onward/

An upper low over eastern Oklahoma at the start of the period will
lift northeast across Missouri Thursday night into Friday,
shunting the better moisture and lift into Arkansas/Louisiana and
East Texas. This will shift the better rain chances east of North
and Central Texas in time for the weekend. Before this happens,
however, it is possible that we get one last training band of
convection (as advertised by recent higher resolution guidance),
which would maintain a threat of localized flash flooding through
Friday. We will continue to monitor this potential, which will
also depend on the mesoscale environment later this week, and
adjust the Flash Flood Watch temporally and/or geographically if
needed.

A mid level ridge will then attempt to bolster itself across the
central part of the CONUS, starting a warming trend this weekend.
With that said, the exiting low will leave a distinct weakness
aloft in the ridge, allowing for isolated thunderstorm development
each afternoon this weekend into the first part of next week. The
better rain and storm chances will be east of I-35 where the
lowest mid level heights and highest moisture content will exist,
but a lack of a forcing mechanism warrants capping POPs in the
chance to slight chance range. Weak flow aloft will keep any
convection which develops disorganized and sub-severe.

The ridge aloft will weaken by Tuesday as a shortwave approaches
from the west. The shortwave will dampen as it approaches due to
interacting with the ridge, but should still keep at least a
slight chance of storms going through the middle of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Convection is gradually increasing across the region with this
trend expected to continue over the next few hours. While some
activity is going on NW of D10 within/near the Bowie corner post,
the bulk of the activity in the near term is anticipated on the
southern fringe of D10. VCTS has been maintained at the D10 sites
from 01-06Z, with a TSRA from 02/05Z as this is the highest
probability for impacts at the terminals. MVFR Cigs are likely to
drop to IFR for a short period in the predawn hours through the
mid morning, before returning to MVFR and eventually VFR as
clearing continues in the late afternoon Thursday. A stray shower
or two may impact D10 late tonight and tomorrow, but the
probability of this is low and doesn't warrant inclusion in the
TAFs.

For Waco, similar TSRA timing is expected tonight although earlier
nearby convection as well as a larger potential for lingering
convection necessitates a longer window of VCTS through tonight.
After which, IFR cigs are most likely between 10/16Z with gradual
clearing Thursday to MVFR and then VFR around 21Z.

Gordon

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  82  72  88  75 /  70  50  20  20  20
Waco                69  83  71  87  73 /  90  50  20  20  10
Paris               68  77  69  84  71 /  80  80  50  50  30
Denton              67  82  69  88  73 /  70  50  20  20  20
McKinney            69  80  70  87  73 /  70  60  30  30  20
Dallas              69  82  71  88  75 /  70  50  20  20  20
Terrell             69  80  71  87  73 /  90  70  30  30  20
Corsicana           71  82  72  88  75 /  90  70  30  30  10
Temple              69  83  71  90  74 /  90  50  20  20  10
Mineral Wells       67  85  70  91  72 /  70  30  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday evening for TXZ093>095-103>107-
117>123-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
605 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

TXZ145-112330-
Hill TX-
605 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Hill County
through 630 PM CDT...

At 604 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Aquilla Lake, or 7 miles west of Hillsboro. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Woodbury, Peoria, and Aquilla Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your sighting to the
National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3194 9718 3194 9729 3209 9730 3209 9716
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 182DEG 3KT 3197 9724

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
710 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

TXZ115-120045-
Stephens TX-
710 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Stephens County through 745 PM CDT...

At 709 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Caddo, or 11 miles east of Breckenridge, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Caddo and Ivan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3288 9875 3281 9858 3271 9858 3262 9871
      3267 9881
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 205DEG 6KT 3271 9872

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Shamburger

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