Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
735 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A significant damaging wind event is still expected through late
  tonight. Thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next few
  hours.

- Periodic storm chances will continue through the upcoming week
  with near or below normal temperatures. Severe storms will be
  possible Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed across parts of
North Texas late this afternoon and evening within an extremely
unstable, but weakly sheared low level environment. These have
mainly produced some large hail, although a brief funnel and weak
tornado was reported across parts of Lamar and Fannin Counties.
These isolated severe storms appear to have only weakly modified
the airmass across the region and shouldn't significantly impact
the severe weather threat through late tonight.

Upstream, convection is becoming better organized with storm
clusters merging into bowing segments and this is expected to
continue over the next 1-2 hours. With the extremely unstable
airmass largely intact across North Texas and deep layer shear
vectors oriented nearly perpendicular to the organizing bowing
segments, we should see an eventual acceleration eastward to this
deep convection and a corresponding increasing damaging wind
threat. Widespread damaging wind swaths are likely to develop
with a few instances of wind gusts exceeding 80 mph across parts
of North Texas through late tonight. The exact location of these
strongest winds can't be pinned down until they start to develop
on radar as intense bowing segments. A new SVR TSTM WATCH will be
issued a little later this evening by SPC to address this threat
into the late night hours. Reference SWOMCD 1212 from the SPC for
a little more detailed information concerning the environmental
conditions supporting the damaging wind threat late tonight.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Today Through Monday Afternoon/

BLUF: A significant, damaging wind event is likely tonight across
North Texas and into portions of Central Texas.

North and Central Texas remain in a warm and unstable airmass as a
dryline lingers in far West Texas and a cold front is currently
draped across southern Kansas. Persisting southerly flow under
partly cloudy skies will promote a warm afternoon, with highs in
the 90s. 70+ F dewpoints will make outdoor conditions feel
uncomfortable, with peak heat index values up to around 105. The
pre-storm environment is expected to be volatile, with 3000-4000
J/kg of MLCAPE, 50 KT of deep layer shear, and lapse rates around
7-8 C/km, which will set the stage for this evening. The biggest
change to this afternoon forecast package is that some of the
latest CAM guidance is now highlighting a low potential for the
clusters currently located near Childress to grow upscale and blow
through the region this afternoon. This presents us with two
scenarios:

Scenario 1 is that the western clusters remain more isolated this
afternoon as they move southeast. This is the most likely case at
this time, but could still change depending on how initial storms
develop. With this scenario, the main line of storms is expected
to develop along the front and dryline in the TX/OK Panhandles
late this afternoon as initially discrete supercells with an all-
hazards threat. This activity is expected to rapidly grow upscale
into an MCS this evening as it moves unimpeded towards North
Texas, with potentially some isolated discrete development out
ahead of the main line. Any more discrete storms would have the
potential for very large hail and an increased tornado threat,
mainly confined to our northwestern counties. The main MCS is
expected to move into our northwestern counties around 9-10PM,
reach the DFW Metro/I-35 corridor around 11PM-12AM, and East Texas
around 12-1AM. The main threat tonight will be damaging wind
gusts with a few instances of >80 mph winds. Some large hail would
be possible with any isolated storms that develop ahead of the
main line. Spin up tornadoes will also be possible within the
line, but damaging straight line winds will be the main threat.

Scenario 2 is that the the clusters that are currently to our
west expand and inhibit significant strengthening of the late
evening activity. This is the less likely scenario, but if it
does occur we would see a lesser swath of intense winds across
North Texas. We'll continue to monitor this potential as there is
currently an expanding coverage of storms to the northwest of
Wichita Falls.

Make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings, and have
your safe space ready and severe weather plan in place. Swaths of
wind damage are likely through late tonight.

The line is expected to exit the region early tomorrow morning,
with the cold front stalling across Central Texas. There may be
some scattered lingering showers and storms across the region
tomorrow morning, but these would remain sub-severe. Additional
storms are likely to develop over Monday afternoon, near the
stalled front and near/north of a lingering NW/SE outflow
boundary.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 229 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025/
/Monday Night Onward/

Our unsettled pattern will continue through the rest of this
week, with daily rain chances expected. The stalled cold front
will linger across Central Texas through the first couple days of
the week, providing a focused area for thunderstorm development
Monday night into Tuesday morning. The severe weather threat for
this activity is on the lower end, but cannot rule out a strong to
marginally severe storm with a wind and hail threat. PWATs
between 1.5-2" will continue the threat for heavy rain, and
training thunderstorms could locally increase the flooding threat
in Central Texas. Better chances for severe weather will occur
over midweek. An open shortwave trough will amplify into a closed
low as it moves across the Desert Southwest and slowly ejects
northeast through the Southern Plains. Coverage of storms will
increase Wednesday and Thursday as the low meanders nearby. Strong
to severe storms will be possible, capable of winds and hail. The
caveat to this severe risk is that deep layer shear continues to
be marginal, which makes the extent of the severe threat
uncertain. Additionally long, skinny CAPE and PWATs around 1.5"
will promote periods of heavy rain. This will ramp up the flooding
threat across the region, particularly for areas that have
already received multiple rounds of storms in the days prior.
This low is progged to stick around over the course of the rest of
the week, leading to continued rain chances as we head into the
weekend. Rain chances will become more sparse over the weekend, as
a mid- level ridge to our west begins to nudge east into the
Southern Plains.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR prevails outside of isolated convection this evening but
attention turns to a complex of severe thunderstorms that is
expected to roll through North Texas late tonight. We'll prevail
TSRA from 04Z with a TEMPO from 4-6Z of severe convection
including 50+ kt winds from the northwest. Thunderstorms will
likely continue for a few hours behind the main line before
precipitation ends during the early morning hours. North winds
will prevail through the day Monday with some low potential for
MVFR cigs during the mid morning hours. There is some potential
for additional scattered storms late Monday, but this will be
addressed in later TAF issuances.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested across North Texas late
tonight. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports
of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are
appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  85  70  88  71 / 100  20  20  30  20
Waco                70  87  70  84  70 /  60  40  50  50  20
Paris               67  84  66  86  66 / 100  10   5   5   5
Denton              67  84  66  88  67 / 100  10  20  20  10
McKinney            70  84  67  87  68 / 100  10  20  20  10
Dallas              70  86  70  87  70 / 100  20  20  30  20
Terrell             70  86  68  87  69 / 100  20  20  30  10
Corsicana           72  87  71  87  72 /  90  30  40  50  20
Temple              72  92  71  86  70 /  30  40  50  50  30
Mineral Wells       68  84  67  87  67 / 100  30  30  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-144>148.

&&

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