Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
252 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across
  much of the forecast area later this afternoon into the early
  evening hours, with threats primarily for damaging winds and
  hail.

- Scattered storms will be possible again on Sunday and Monday
  afternoons. A few storms may be severe (15-30% chance), with
  greater chances on Monday.

- A cold front on Tuesday will knock temperatures back down to
  near or slightly below normal for the middle of next work week,
  with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 70s to the mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 116 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025/
/This afternoon through Sunday/

Not a lot of changes to the ongoing forecast thinking regarding
the evolution of our upcoming round of convection. Mid layer water
vapor imagery continues to show a steady eastward progression to
the shortwave trough currently located over AZ/NM. A mid level
wind maximum ahead of this large scale trough is nosing into west
central Texas early this afternoon. As this feature enters North
Texas during the later afternoon hours, it will help initiate
isolated strong thunderstorms over our western counties, mainly
along and west of the US 281 corridor.

Mixed layer CAPE exists in great abundance everywhere along and
west of I-35. As such, any discrete storms that develop will
likely possess very strong updrafts, yielding a potential for
large hail during the afternoon hours. As time wears on and the
cells propagate eastward, they're likely to grow upscale into
clusters and short lines as they approach the I-35 corridor in the
4 pm to 7 pm time period. With the approach of evening, the
primary threat will likely transition to strong, damaging winds,
though a large hail risk will also persist. Low level shear won't
be overly abundant, and thus the tornado risk is low, but
certainly not out of the question.

The convective system will be fairly progressive, and thus most
of the activity should transit the eastern North Texas counties
in the 7 pm to 10 pm timeframe. Current convective allowing models
suggest the storms won't totally merge into one continuous squall
line, at least south of I-20, so it's possible some locations
will escape rainfall with this system.

Once the storms exit the forecast area late this evening, mild and
humid conditions will prevail overnight, with substantial stratus
redeveloping prior to daybreak. Moisture and instability (with
little to no inhibition) will remain in good supply on Sunday,
with at least weak upper level forcing persisting due to the
trough to our west. While boundary level focusing mechanisms will
be rather nebulous, scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
will redevelop after midday, with somewhat higher chances depicted
for our western and northern counties. Any storms that do develop
Sunday afternoon will benefit from substantial amounts of CAPE,
and thus a large hail and isolated damaging wind gust threat will
persist.

Bradshaw

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday through next Saturday/

Following a final day of muggy conditions and active convection,
the weather over North Central Texas will quickly transition to a
dry and more seasonable temperature regime through the remainder
of the workweek.

The longwave upper trough which will have resided over the Western
United States for the past few days will finally exit the Rockies
on Monday and enter the Plains States. A warm, humid and very unstable
airmass will persist over the region on Monday. Appreciable
synoptic scale forcing for ascent will exist in advance of the
mean upper trough, facilitating widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity over our area through the afternoon hours.
The bulk of this activity should shift into the eastern North
Texas counties by evening, with all precipitation ending from west
to east later Monday night. The storms Monday will once again
benefit from substantial CAPE and deep layer shear. As such, a
severe weather risk will continue to exist over most of our
forecast area, highlighted by a large hail and wind risk. The
combination of shear and instability will promote at least a low
end tornado threat closer to the Red River as well.

A noticeable (and welcome) cold front will sweep through North
Texas early Tuesday, delivering northwest winds and drier air to
the region. A dry northwesterly upper level flow regime will
evolve over the Southern Plains through mid to late week,
promoting sunny and seasonably warm days, mostly clear nights, and
overnight lows settling comfortably into the 50s and lower 60s.
Indeed, next week may feature our final mornings with lows this
comfortable until next fall - so be sure to enjoy them! A return
to southerly to southwesterly deep level flow will resume by
week's end, hastening a return to temperatures more typical of
late May or even early June.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 116 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025/
/18z TAFs/

Widespread MVFR ceilings have persisted across much of North
Central Texas, including the D10 TAF sites through the morning and
midday hours today. As afternoon solar insolation and mixing
continue, the ceilings should lift into the lower VFR category by
20z, with some scattering also occurring at all DFW TAF sites.

Isolated thunderstorms will begin to initiate west of the I-35
corridor in the 19-21z timeframe. A few of these cells may
approach D10 by 20-21z, necessitating a mention of VCTS by 21z.
The cells should gradually coagulate into clusters and short lines
after 22z, as they move into the I-35 corridor. Included TEMPO
+TSRA conditions at all D10 sites from 22z to 01z as this
organized convective system moves through the Metroplex. The
potential for very strong wind gusts as well as large hail does
exist with these storms as they transit the area. The
aforementioned convective trends will hold true for Waco as well,
but delayed by approximately 02-03 hours.

Once the storms depart the I-35 corridor and move east of the area
after 01-02z, scattered to broken VFR cloud conditions will
prevail for most of the remainder of the overnight hours. Another
round of MVFR stratus will spread northward into the Waco and D10
TAF sites after 08-10z, and these conditions will prevail through
approximately 16z before slowly mixing out.

Southerly flow at speeds averaging 10-15 knots will prevail
areawide from 03z to 16z tonight/Sunday morning, increasing just a
tad to sustained speeds of 15-18 knots and gusts to 23 knots from
16z onward Sunday.

Bradshaw

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested across North and Central Texas
this afternoon and evening. Even if activation is not locally
requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National
Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  88  72  86  70 /  40  40  20  60  40
Waco                72  91  72  90  70 /  40  20   5  30  30
Paris               67  84  69  83  68 /  50  30  20  60  50
Denton              68  87  70  86  65 /  20  40  20  60  40
McKinney            69  86  71  83  68 /  30  40  20  60  40
Dallas              72  88  72  85  70 /  40  30  20  60  40
Terrell             70  88  72  86  70 /  50  30  10  50  40
Corsicana           73  91  74  90  73 /  40  20   5  30  30
Temple              72  93  73  93  70 /  40  10   5  20  30
Mineral Wells       69  91  70  90  64 /  10  30  20  50  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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