Flash Flood Warning 49, NWS Fort Worth, TX

947 
WGUS74 KFWD 062010
FFSFWD

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
310 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

TXC331-395-062215-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0049.000000T0000Z-250506T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Milam TX-Robertson TX-
310 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR MILAM AND SOUTHERN ROBERTSON COUNTIES...

At 310 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area earlier this afternoon. Between 1 and 
2.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional light rain is possible 
over the next hour or so. Flash flooding is likely ongoing.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets, and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Rockdale, Cameron, Hearne, Franklin, Thorndale, Calvert, Alcoa 
  Lake, Camp Creek Lake, Milano, Hoyte, Elevation, Gause, Hanover, 
  Branchville, Maysfield, Minerva, Mumford, Praesel, Benchley and 
  Wheelock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3110 9628 3106 9625 3101 9626 3099 9624
      3097 9624 3091 9635 3075 9646 3070 9657
      3073 9660 3073 9662 3046 9716 3073 9727
      3101 9665

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Schroeder

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
136 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Line of showers and storms continues to move across East Texas
  this afternoon. Some storms may be severe and may produce heavy
  rain.

- Areas of fog are expected to develop tonight into Wednesday
  morning.

- An unsettled pattern will continue through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday night/

Recent radar imagery show a well defined line of showers and
storms moving across East Texas. This activity will continue to
push east this afternoon, exiting our area by 4-5pm. The risk for
severe storms will continue along the line of storms across our
southern zones with large hail and a few tornadoes possible in
addition to locally heavy rain. The severe threat will come to an
end as the line exit our region with quiet but cloudy weather
expected the rest of the day.

For tonight, given the light easterly/northerly wind expected,
areas of fog and low clouds will develop through Wednesday
morning. Some areas across North and Central Texas will likely
see dense fog late tonight or early Wednesday morning, and a
Dense Fog Advisory may be needed if confidence continues to
increase this evening.

The clouds and/or fog will begin to clear our by late morning or
early afternoon with plenty of sunshine the rest of the
afternoon. Winds will remain light and variable with highs in the
70s across North Texas and low 80s in Central Texas.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 253 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025/
/Wednesday through next Tuesday/

Though the prevailing synoptic pattern (Omega Block) is
collapsing, the slow-moving mid/upper-level low will be with us
for a while as it slowly progresses eastward and becomes cutoff
over the Southern Plains on Wednesday. Most of North and Central
Texas should be precipitation-free by Wednesday morning though, with
the only ongoing convective activity tied to the stalling front
draped well south of our forecast area. However, isentropic ascent
on the cool side of the surface boundary, peripherally influenced
by the nearby mid/upper-level low, could yield lingering elevated
showers and thunderstorms in our southeastern counties through
the afternoon.

By Wednesday evening, another weak shortwave/perturbation
embedded in the cyclonic flow aloft will support convective
development in Oklahoma and adjacent areas of North Texas
spreading down to the I-20 corridor early Thursday morning. Though
models usually have notoriously poor handling of low pressure
systems cutoff from the prevailing westerly flow, the current
signal amongst available guidance is that the low will be located
over the Ozarks by early Thursday transitioning (briefly) back
into an open trough. Cold temperatures aloft combined with
shallow/residual low-level moisture and daytime heating may
provide modest destabilization both Thursday and Friday afternoon
as the boundary layer becomes well mixed. Thunderstorm activity is
possible across the region during peak heating before diminishing
as instability wanes shortly after sunset. The risk for severe
weather during this period remains low due to weak vertical shear.

By late Friday, the shortwave trough is projected to deepen back
into a closed low over the Lower Mississippi Valley, aided by a
secondary upper low currently developing on the backside of the
parent system. Though we will remain in close proximity to the
upper-level low through the weekend, we will be located on the
subsident flank, with the better moisture and forcing well to the
east-southeast. This should preclude additional rain chances
across North and Central Texas through early next week.
Temperatures through the end of the period will remain cooler
than normal for early-mid May, a detail I think none of us will be
complaining about!

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Storms moving east, low ceilings continue.

Poor flying conditions will prevail through Wednesday. While the
line of thunderstorms continues to move east this afternoon, the
eastern arrivals/departures will continue to be impacted at least
through 21-22Z. Otherwise, low ceilings/vsby will remain in place
through the period. Conditions will likely deteriorate to LIFR
after 07Z tonight and continue through at least mid-morning
Wednesday. We will finally see an improvement around 19-20Z
tomorrow as clouds lift/scatter out. Otherwise, winds will remain
from the east/northeast below 10 kts tonight and tomorrow.

Sanchez

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will continue this afternoon across East Texas
and the Brazos Valley region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    62  78  59  77  58 /  10   5  20  30  10
Waco                62  80  61  77  58 /  10  10  10  20   5
Paris               60  76  58  74  57 /  40  10  30  40  20
Denton              57  77  54  75  54 /  10   5  20  30  10
McKinney            60  77  57  75  56 /  20   5  20  30  10
Dallas              63  79  61  77  60 /  10   5  20  30  10
Terrell             60  78  59  77  57 /  20   5  20  30  10
Corsicana           64  80  62  79  59 /  20  10  10  30   5
Temple              62  82  61  80  57 /  10  10  10  20   5
Mineral Wells       58  79  54  77  54 /   5   5  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for TXZ093>095-104>107-
119>123-134-135-146>148-161-162-175.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
TXZ107-122-123-135-147-148-161.

Tornado Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ162-174-175.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1031 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 AM     Hail             Garland                 32.91N 96.63W
05/06/2025  E1.00 Inch       Dallas             TX   Public

            Spotter reports 1 inch hail in Garland.

&&

JH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1047 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     Hail             1 W Sachse              32.98N 96.60W
05/06/2025  E1.00 Inch       Dallas             TX   Public

            1 inch hail in Sachse.

1040 AM     Hail             2 N Garland             32.93N 96.63W
05/06/2025  E1.00 Inch       Dallas             TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1050 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1046 AM     Hail             1 E Murphy              33.01N 96.59W
05/06/2025  E1.25 Inch       Collin             TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1052 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1049 AM     Hail             1 NW Sachse             32.99N 96.60W
05/06/2025  E1.50 Inch       Collin             TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Ping Pong Ball (1.50
            in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1105 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 AM     Hail             Garland                 32.91N 96.63W
05/06/2025  M1.25 Inch       Dallas             TX   Public

            Social media picture of half dollar sized
            hail in North Garland.

&&

Prater

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1111 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 AM     Hail             1 W Sachse              32.98N 96.59W
05/06/2025  M1.50 Inch       Dallas             TX   Public

            Social media report of 1.5 inch hail around
            HWY 78 and 5th street in Sachse. Time
            estimated by radar.

&&

Prater