Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
632 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms have developed across Central Texas this
  afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and damaging
  winds are the main hazards in any storms that persist.

- Additional storms will arrive early morning Friday with a cold
  front, continuing into Central Texas in the afternoon and
  evening. A few storms may be severe for hail and wind and may
  produce heavy rain/localized flooding.

- Nice weather arrives in time for the weekend, followed by more
  storm chances early to mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Ongoing convection across Central Texas will pose mainly a threat
for large to very large hail, with reports upwards of baseball
size hail across Copperas Cove earlier this afternoon. These
storms will continue to develop and move along a near-stationary
boundary currently positioned across that region. A left splitting
storm has moved north out of Central Texas and will continue
moving north/northwest over the next couple hours. This isolated
storm may produce severe hail as it continues north. Convection
will slowly diminish in intensity through the evening after sunset
with quiet weather resuming for much of the night.

No major changes have been made to the rest of the forecast with
everything remaining in shape. Showers and thunderstorms will
begin to develop early Friday morning as a cold front pushes south
due to a shortwave moving across the region. While the initial
activity shouldn't pose much of a threat, there could be an
isolated strong to marginally severe storm that manages to
develop. This activity will move south through the afternoon and
evening where a severe threat for large hail and damaging winds
will materialize once again. More details can be found down below.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Through Friday Evening/

A somewhat short period of quiet weather is then likely for most
of the overnight period before additional thunderstorm chances
return late tonight/early Friday morning with a front. Thunderstorm
chances will increase along the Red River between 2-5 AM, however
most of the convection should stay farther north during this time
period. There is uncertainty in how organized this complex of
storms will become in the morning hours, but conditions will be
favorable for a few strong to severe storms with a large hail and
damaging wind threat as it moves through North Texas in the
morning. The shortwave sending this activity through the region
will shift southeast across the Plains through the day, with
diffluent upper level flow and better lift arriving in the
afternoon. This will coincide with the effective front/outflow
from the morning convection now likely being draped somewhere
south of I-20 during afternoon heating and destabilization.
Additional storm development in Central Texas is likely, as well
as reintensification of any storms still ongoing across the
forecast area. These will maintain the greatest threat being large
hail and damaging winds, but a lower tornado threat will exist as
well, dependent on the specific storm/boundary location. The
damaging wind threat will be dependent on how well the morning
cluster persists into the afternoon, and how quickly any scattered
development congeals into clusters, but in general, an increase
in the damaging wind threat is expected as the storms shift
farther south through Central Texas late afternoon and in the
evening with the anticipated upscale growth.

Gordon

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 308 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025/
/Saturday Onward/

Beyond Friday, a quiet couple of days are expected over the weekend.
Weak ridging will prevail with a quasi omega block pattern, as a
second upper level low dives south and east from the upper West
Coast. Highs will be in the 70s each day, with no rain chances in
the forecast.

Conditions will start to change early next week with the return of
an unsettled pattern, although there is fairly considerable
uncertainty in the extent of available moisture and what areas
will see the greatest lift/potential for more organized
convection. The initial arrival of a shortwave Monday into Tuesday
will bring low storm chances back to western North and Central
Texas as the upper low slowly translates out of the Four Corners,
but the more significant synoptic lift doesn't look to arrive
until Days 6/7 (Tuesday/Wednesday). Looking at ensemble guidance
and EFI/M-climate percentiles, there is a low (but non-zero)
signal for more pronounced heavy rain that will need to be
monitored as we get closer. Right now however, the current axis of
heaviest precipitation looks to be outside of the forecast area.
Widespread wetting rain is still likely, with current 25th-75th
percentile ranges for Monday night through Wednesday depicting
totals from around 0.5-1" on the lower end to 2.5-3.5" on the
upper end. As with this time of year, there looks to be some
potential for severe weather as well, but similarly, the signal is
not overly impressive at this stage. Otherwise, highs will be in
the 70s early next week with lows in the 50s/60s.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR/IFR, FROPA, VCTS tomorrow, low TSRA potential.

VFR has returned to all TAF sites this afternoon as our morning
stratus continues to erode off to the northeast. Our attention
turns toward the Glen Rose/Cedar Creek cornerposts where
supercells have developed. These should remain away from Waco but
have included VCTS over the next several hours at least. There is
a left splitting storm that is currently moving north/northwest
and will continue to do so over the next hour or so. This storm
will remain west of the D10 TAF sites. Any activity will wind down
through the evening before quiet weather resumes overnight.

MVFR to IFR ceilings will return early tomorrow morning across
Waco, stretching northward toward the D10 as a cold front
approaches around the same time. Winds will shift from the north
with showers and thunderstorms tagging along. Much of this
activity will linger north to just around the Red River before
pushing south. There is still a great deal of uncertainty in exact
timing and coverage across the airspace through the afternoon and
potentially into the evening, and will be worth watching
overnight with future TAF issuances through tomorrow.

Reeves

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be needed this afternoon in Central
Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  77  56  75  54 /  20  80  30   0   0
Waco                65  77  59  74  51 /  20  70  60   5   0
Paris               62  74  53  72  49 /  40  80  40   0   0
Denton              61  74  50  73  47 /  40  70  20   0   0
McKinney            63  74  53  73  50 /  30  80  30   0   0
Dallas              65  77  57  75  54 /  20  70  40   0   0
Terrell             64  77  55  74  50 /  10  70  50   0   0
Corsicana           67  79  59  76  53 /  20  80  70   5   0
Temple              66  81  59  77  51 /  20  80  70   5   5
Mineral Wells       62  76  51  76  49 /  20  70  20   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ142-
156>160-174-175.

&&

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