Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
633 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch will be in effect tonight through Thursday morning
  from the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex into Northeast Texas.
  Widespread rain and storms are expected from late this evening
  through Thursday afternoon. Rain totals of 1 to 3 inches are
  likely, with isolated totals up to 6 to 7 inches across eastern
  portions of North Texas.

- A few strong or severe thunderstorms are also possible tonight
  into Thursday morning, mainly across Central Texas.

- Dry conditions return Friday through early next week, with well
  above normal temperatures expected this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Friday Morning/

As we go through the rest of this evening the closed low will
continue to advance eastward across the Southern Plains, spreading
increased forcing for ascent over North and Central Texas. Down at
the surface, the surface low and its attendant warm and Pacific
fronts will surge north/northeast across the region tonight.
Currently, low visibilities and fog are plaguing much of the
forecast area as the sun sets and dewpoint depressions remain low.
We have refrained from issuing a Dense Fog Advisory as
visibilities will will continue to go back and forth this
evening. Nonetheless, please remain vigilant on the roads if you
have to drive.

As the low treks into North Texas, lift from both the frontal
boundaries and the upper low will allow for an uptick in
convective coverage near the I-35 corridor. We're already seeing
the beginnings of increased radar returns in our southwestern
counties as of 6 PM. This blossoming will continue overnight,
helping to aid in the slight improvement of visibilities and cloud
heights across North and Central Texas over the next several
hours. The convective mode will start out rather clunky, but will
gradually grow upscale into more of a linear mode as the Pacific
front/dryline begins to sweep across the forecast area overnight.

While overall instability is on the less impressive side,
abundant environmental shear will allow for a few strong to
severe storms across the region tonight into tomorrow morning,
with greatest chances across our Central Texas counties. The main
threats will be heavy rain and small hail, as the majority of
this activity will remain elevated. However, latest HREF guidance
shows a medium (30-60%) probability of increased SBCAPE of at
least 500 J/kg across our southern Central Texas counties
overnight. If storms are able to become surface-based, then there
will be a heightened potential for damaging winds and tornadoes.
This scenario remains uncertain but All in all, a lot of the
storms on radar tonight through tomorrow will rotate but will most
likely remain elevated with little tornadic potential.
Nonetheless, make sure to stay weather aware overnight and have
multiple ways to receive warnings.

With multiple "bands" of precipitation forecast to occur within
the next 24-36 hours, widespread rainfall accumulations of between
1-3" is expected for areas mainly near and east of US-281.
The biggest concern through tomorrow afternoon will be the
potential for flooding from training thunderstorms, particularly
for areas near/east of I-35 and near/north of I-20. There is a
low chance for isolated rainfall accumulations of up to 6-7" in
this area, and the Flood Watch remains in effect through noon
tomorrow. Keep up to date with road conditions and remember to
never drive through flooded roads.

The aforementioned upper low will slowly transit towards the
Panhandles over the day tomorrow. This will usher the Pacific front
and the accompanying showers/storms eastward. Behind the Pacific
front, skies will begin to quickly clear out as drier air is
filtered into the region. Eventually, our rain chances will come to
an end late tomorrow afternoon as all lingering showers exit into
NWS Shreveport's CWA. Afternoon highs will peak in the 60s with
overnight lows expected to drop into the low-mid 40s.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 145 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/
Update:
No major changes were made to the long-term forecast as a period
of precipitation-free conditions begins Thursday night. A rapid
warm-up is expected Saturday-Tuesday, with the warmest days
occurring Sunday and Monday. Areas west of I-35 will have the
highest probabilities of experiencing 80-degree temperatures. Rain
chances return to the forecast next Wednesday as a shortwave and
attendant cold front slide into North and Central Texas.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Thursday Night through Tuesday/

The forecast period begins with the large upper low tracking
eastward across Kansas and the associated front and line of
convection displaced well to our east across Louisiana. Behind
this front, dry air (low/mid 30s surface dewpoints) wrapping
around the western flank of the low will fill in from west to
east. Modest cooling within this Pacific airmass will allow
temperatures to settle into the mid 40s Thursday night. This is
around 5 to 15 degrees cooler than Wednesday night but still 5 to
10 degrees above normal for late January. Low amplitude, zonal
flow behind the exiting trough/low will allow for quick
temperature modification this weekend while the colder air becomes
trapped across the northern tier of the contiguous US. By
Saturday afternoon, daytime temperatures will range from the mid
60s east of I-35 to the low/mid 70s west of the I-35 as the
surface high shifts east and south winds return.

Veering southerly-southwesterly flow and attendant warm advection
late weekend through early next week will make it feel more like
April than February with highs climbing into the 70s and low 80s.
NBM temperature probabilities show the area most likely to see
temperatures top 80 F will be along and west of US 281. However,
there is a low (10% chance) of highs in the 80s reaching as far
east as the I-35 corridor on Sunday and Monday. MaxTs have been
nudged a few to several degrees warmer than the deterministic NBM
across our western zones. Additionally, Friday night is shaping up
to be a decent radiational cooling night with clear skies, dry
air and light/calm winds, so overnight lows were blended towards
the NBM 25th percentile. North and Central Texas looks to remain
warmer than normal and rain-free through at least Tuesday as
ridging aloft prevails.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Dismal flying conditions will persist over the majority of the
24-30 hour period at all TAF sites. Currently, LIFR conditions are
being observed at all TAF airports, with visibilities less than 2
SM and cigs at or below 300 ft. Visibilities and cigs will only
slightly improve as showers and thunderstorms begin to move into
the region over the next several hours, but will remain LIFR to
IFR through tomorrow. Thunderstorms are most likely to impact
terminals beginning at 0400Z in D10 and closer to 09Z at ACT as a
line of storms develops near/just west of the I-35 corridor
overnight and moves east tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, south winds
will veer to the north-northwest as the associated Pacific front
moves east, with flow change expected around 8Z in D10 and 11Z in
ACT.

The main line of thunderstorms should be east of D10 near
daybreak tomorrow and closer to 15Z at ACT, though lingering
showers and occasional storms will remain possible at the airports
through mid- morning to noon. Visibilities and cigs will
gradually improve late tomorrow morning, eventually returning to
VFR around 18Z. Winds will eventually shift more W-WSW over the
late morning and afternoon

Prater

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    54  67  46  65  40 / 100  90   0   0   0
Waco                57  68  46  66  40 / 100  90   0   0   0
Paris               53  63  43  62  37 / 100 100   0   0   0
Denton              52  67  42  65  35 / 100  80   0   0   0
McKinney            54  66  43  63  37 / 100  90   0   0   0
Dallas              55  68  46  65  40 / 100  90   0   0   0
Terrell             56  64  44  63  37 / 100 100   0   0   0
Corsicana           59  66  46  65  42 / 100 100   0   0   0
Temple              57  68  44  68  39 / 100  90   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       51  68  42  67  37 / 100  60   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ093>095-103>106-
118>120.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1108 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-302330-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
1108 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Thunderstorms will move through the night, some of which could be
strong to severe. Hail up to 1" and damaging winds will be possible.
Additionally, heavy rainfall will continue tonight. There will be a
risk for flash flooding across North Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is possible tonight within the Flood Watch. Please
send us your flooding reports, if you can safely do so.

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