Flash Flood Warning 112, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
128 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are expected once again this afternoon. Strong
  downburst winds and heavy rain will be the main threats.
  Isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out.

- One or more thunderstorm complexes could affect portions of the
  area Saturday night into Sunday morning and again Sunday night
  into Monday morning, before seasonably hot and dry weather
  resumes next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday Night/

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this afternoon
across North and Central Texas with locally heavy rainfall and
strong downburst winds possible. Where storms persist or
repeatedly train, a localized flash flood threat may emerge and
continue through the evening hours, especially in urban and poor
drainage areas.

The broader synoptic pattern remains characterized by subtropical
ridging positioned over southeast AZ and southwest NM with a
series of weak shortwave troughs rotating around the upper-level
ridge. These disturbances are providing weak large-scale ascent
across the region, while the stalled surface front currently
draped over North Texas remains quasi-stationary for the next 24
hours.

The frontal zone will likely be the most favored area for initial
convective development, in response to low-level convergence.
However, convective temperatures in the mid/upper 90s will support
scattered thunderstorm development further south across Central
Texas as afternoon temperatures peak in the upper 90s. Moderate to
strong instability (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) beneath steep mid-
level lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear (less than 15 kts)
will support pulse-type thunderstorms this afternoon,
characterized by brief, rapid intensification and decay. While
widespread severe weather is unlikely, isolated downburst winds up
to 40 to 60 mph may occur with the strongest storms.

Rainfall amounts will be highly variable due to the isolated to
scattered coverage of today's storms. Aerial averages of 0.5 to
1.5 inches remains most likely, though very localized totals of 3
to 5 inches are possible given expected slow storm motions and
increasingly PWAT rich environment. The reasonable worst case
scenario (90th percentile) continues to highlight an area near and
northeast of the DFW Metroplex, where rainfall totals could
exceed 5" (through 7 AM Saturday) in a few isolated areas.

Storm coverage should wane later this evening with the loss of
daytime heating, though some lingering showers and storms may
persist through the overnight hours, particularly east of I-35
where weak ascent associated with the passing shortwave will
remain in place. Temperatures tonight will settle into the lower
to mid 70s.

By Saturday afternoon, the shortwave is expected to begin pulling
away from the region. This will likely usher in a relative lull
in convective activity, though residual moisture and lingering
weak mesoscale boundaries may support at least isolated to widely
scattered storms during peak heating. Coverage should be lower
than what we see today, with the greatest concentration expected
across Central and East Texas. Slightly drier air and a modest
northerly surface wind shift will also allow temperatures to
remain slightly below normal for early August, with highs ranging
from the upper 80s in the northeast to low-mid 90s elsewhere.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Onward/

Persistent moisture and another mid-level perturbation embedded
within northwesterly flow aloft is expected to support additional
convective development over the higher terrain of the southern
Rockies late Saturday and early Sunday. This activity is currently
projected to make a run at our northwestern zones after daybreak.
Storm chances will continue through the day as the shortwave
passes overhead. With weak north-northwest flow aloft continuing,
another embedded ridge-topping perturbation/shortwave will lead to
increasing rain chances again Sunday night into Monday. By Monday
afternoon, the upper-level ridge to the west should begin to
build eastward into the Plains shunting rain chances into East
Texas and Louisiana. Seasonably hot and dry weather will return
through the remainder of the period with the re-expansion of the
ridge. Highs will climb into the mid to upper 90s by midweek,
with a few triple digit readings possible north of I-20 and west
of I-35 through the end of the week.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

A weak front between the DFW Metroplex and Waco along with a
shortwave aloft will lead to an afternoon and evening of
scattered thunderstorms. Convection should initialize in the
21-23Z time frame, both near and south of the front across Central
Texas, and also across North Texas as an MCV treks east along the
Red River. Storms will be disorganized, slow-moving and difficult
to pinpoint exact time and location. Will hence include a
generous 4-hour TEMPO group for TS from 23Z-03Z for the Metroplex
TAFs, and hopefully narrow down the timing some in later
forecasts. Will stick with VCTS for KACT where less coverage is
expected.

Light north winds can be expected north of the front and light
south winds out ahead of it. Northeast low level flow flow will
usher in a deck of MVFR ceilings across North Texas Saturday
morning, which has been added to the Metroplex TAFs. The front
will sag slowly south into Central Texas over the next 24 hours,
which should shift the better storm potential south of the region
Saturday afternoon and evening.

30

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested this afternoon and
evening across North Texas. Even if activation is not locally
requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National
Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  90  75  93  75 /  40  30   0  10  30
Waco                75  92  74  94  75 /  40  30  10  10  30
Paris               72  88  68  89  69 /  50  30   0   5  20
Denton              72  90  71  93  71 /  30  20   0  10  40
McKinney            73  89  71  92  71 /  40  30   0  10  30
Dallas              75  90  74  93  74 /  40  30   0  10  30
Terrell             73  90  71  92  71 /  50  40   5   5  20
Corsicana           75  93  74  95  75 /  50  40  10  10  20
Temple              75  94  73  96  75 /  30  30  20  10  30
Mineral Wells       72  94  72  95  71 /  20  20   0  20  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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