Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

270 
WWUS53 KFSD 152245
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
545 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

SDC003-015-023-043-053-152300-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0162.000000T0000Z-250715T2300Z/
Aurora SD-Charles Mix SD-Gregory SD-Douglas SD-Brule SD-
545 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN AURORA...NORTHWESTERN CHARLES MIX...NORTH CENTRAL
GREGORY...NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS AND SOUTHEASTERN BRULE COUNTIES...

At 545 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Grass Ranch Colony to near Platte to 7 miles west
of Geddes, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

These severe thunderstorms will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Aurora, northwestern Charles Mix, north central Gregory,
northwestern Douglas and southeastern Brule Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4378 9859 4324 9874 4331 9919 4379 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 280DEG 23KT 4367 9878 4344 9879 4328 9885 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Meyers

376 
WWUS53 KFSD 152300
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
600 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

SDC003-015-023-043-053-152308-
/O.EXP.KFSD.SV.W.0162.000000T0000Z-250715T2300Z/
Aurora SD-Charles Mix SD-Gregory SD-Douglas SD-Brule SD-
600 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN AURORA...
NORTHWESTERN CHARLES MIX...NORTH CENTRAL GREGORY...NORTHWESTERN
DOUGLAS AND SOUTHEASTERN BRULE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 600 PM CDT...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, small
hail and gusty winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central South Dakota.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
portions of Aurora, Charles Mix, and Gregory counties until 645 pm.

&&

LAT...LON 4378 9859 4324 9874 4331 9919 4379 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 294DEG 25KT 4364 9867 4341 9869 4325 9875 

$$

Meyers

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
255 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe storms are possible late this
  afternoon and evening mainly across southeast South Dakota and
  northeast Nebraska, with 70 mph winds and ping pong ball-
  sized hail as the main threats. Storms develop in central
  South Dakota around 4-5 pm, with the severe threat decreasing
  with eastward extent.

- Dry and cooler Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure settles
  across the region. Daily highs will top out in the 70s.

- Increasing heat and humidity Friday will allow for a return to
  shower and thunderstorm chances.

- Gradual warming trend this weekend into early next week with
  periodic precipitation chances (20-30 percent).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW: It's another hot and humid day across the
area, with highs around 90 and dew points around 70. This will help
set the stage for potential severe weather late this afternoon
through tonight as cold front residing just to west of the area will
begin to move through. Initial storm development will likely occur
around the Missouri River Valley in central South Dakota around 21-
22Z and quickly grow into east-southeastward moving linear segments.
The initial development will have 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and mid-
level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km, supporting a threat for large
hail up to ping pong ball in size. The only limiting factor to large
hail development will be modest effective shear of 25-30 kts. As
storms develop into linear segments, expect damaging wind gusts to
take over as the main threat as DCAPE values exceeding 800 J/kg will
exist ahead of the storms. However, the greatest instability will be
pushed south of the area into central Nebraska as the storms move
through, and thus, expect a weakening trend in the storms locally
with eastern extent. Storms will reach the I-29 corridor around
midnight and continue pushing eastward by early tomorrow
morning.

Lows tonight drop into the low-to-mid-60s. With the cold frontal
passage and cloud cover lingering through the day Wednesday, expect
much cooler temperatures for Wednesday afternoon. Highs will range
from the upper-60s to low-70s north to the upper-70s south.
Lingering showers will also be around through Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday will be dominated by surface high pressure region-
wide, resulting in dry conditions and a continuation of cooler
temperatures from Wednesday. High pressure drifts eastward
Thursday night into Friday, allowing for return southerly flow
and increasing temperatures/moisture. Quick-moving minor waves
within quasi-zonal flow aloft will interact with increasing
instability and increase the chances for showers and
thunderstorms, especially Friday night. At this time, 12Z GFS is
very aggressive with mid-level warming, resulting in a stout
thermal cap between 5-10 kft. If this holds, any convective
activity would be elevated. For now, broad brush 20-60 NBM POPs
seem reasonable.

This weekend into early next week, quasi-zonal flow appears to
give way to some synoptic ridging, although the degree to which
this occurs varies widely between medium-range guidance. Overall
impact will be to see gradually rising temperatures each day,
such that a return to the low 90s is possible by Tuesday.
Precipitation wise, weak waves topping the ridge will provide
periodic chances for showers and storms, but lack of continuity
precludes anything more than a 20-30 POP at this time, which is
handled well by NBM guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Scattered showers and storms are set to increase in coverage around
21-22Z this afternoon near the Missouri River Valley in central
South Dakota. Storms will quickly develop into a line and push east-
southeastwards into tonight. A few storms will be capable of wind
gusts around 60 kts and hail up to ping pong ball in size, though
there is some uncertainty in how long these storms will maintain
their strength with eastward extent. With that said, it is unlikely
the TAF sites will see these types of severe storms as the greatest
threat will be in south-central South Dakota closer to the Nebraska
state line.

Storms will exit off to the east early Wednesday
morning, leaving low MVFR to IFR ceilings in its wake along with
some lingering areas of drizzle. Some smoke may also make it to KHON
overnight, but it is not expected to be thick enough to cause MVFR
visibilities at this time.

A cold front is just to the west of the area to start the period,
which will move across the area into the evening hours from
northwest to southeast. As it moves through, winds will turn from
the south to a more north/northwesterly direction. Outside of any
stronger thunderstorm wind gusts, expect gusts as high as around 20
kts this afternoon before tapering off overnight.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Samet/Rogers
AVIATION...Samet

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
351 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-160900-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
351 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to form over
central South Dakota this afternoon into the evening. Risks include
hail to the size of a ping-pong ball, wind gusts to 70 mph, heavy
rainfall, and possibly a tornado or two. Rainfall totals of 1-2
inches are expected with isolated pockets of up to 3 inches
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Lingering, light showers continue Wednesday morning, ending by
afternoon. Cooler temperatures will prevail through the end of the
week. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms comes Friday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
456 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 E Dixon               43.39N 99.44W
07/15/2025  M71 MPH          Gregory            SD   Dept of Highways

            Mesonet station 283 SD RWIS Dixon.

&&

JC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
458 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     Hail             9 NNE Chamberlain       43.92N 99.24W
07/15/2025  E1.00 Inch       Brule              SD   Public

            In addition to a few quarter sized hail
            stones, rainfall was about 0.30 to 0.40
            inch.

&&

TRM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
504 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 ESE Dallas            43.23N 99.49W
07/15/2025  M57 MPH          Gregory            SD   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 307 SD RWIS Dallas.

&&

JC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
517 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     Hail             5 S Gregory             43.16N 99.41W
07/15/2025  E1.25 Inch       Gregory            SD   Trained Spotter

            In addition to hail up to half dollar size,
            heavy rain and 40-50 mph wind gusts stripped
            some leaves from trees.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
519 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SE Burke              43.15N 99.26W
07/15/2025  E55 MPH          Gregory            SD   Public

            Measured by personal weather station.

&&

JC