Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Aurora County, SD, Beadle County, SD, Bon Homme County, SD, Brookings County, SD, Brule County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Clay County, SD, Davison County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

258 
WWUS83 KFSD 130141
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
841 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

NEZ013-SDZ038-050-052>054-057>061-063>066-068>070-131100-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0005.250313T1800Z-250314T0100Z/
Dixon-Beadle-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Brule-Aurora-Davison-
Hanson-McCook-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Clay-
841 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Nebraska, Dixon. In South Dakota, Beadle, 
  Gregory, Jerauld, Sanborn, Miner, Brule, Aurora, Davison, 
  Hanson, McCook, Charles Mix, Douglas, Hutchinson, Turner, Bon 
  Homme, Yankton and Clay.

* WINDS...South 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 17 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

483 
WWUS83 KFSD 130759
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
259 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

NEZ014-SDZ039-040-055-056-062-067-071-131600-
/O.EXA.KFSD.FW.W.0005.250313T1800Z-250314T0100Z/
Dakota-Kingsbury-Brookings-Lake-Moody-Minnehaha-Lincoln-Union-
259 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...In Nebraska, Dakota. In South Dakota, 
  Kingsbury, Brookings, Lake, Moody, Minnehaha, Lincoln and 
  Union.

* WINDS...South 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 22 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

NEZ013-SDZ038-050-052>054-057>061-063>066-068>070-131600-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0005.250313T1800Z-250314T0100Z/
Dixon-Beadle-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Brule-Aurora-Davison-
Hanson-McCook-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Clay-
259 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Nebraska, Dixon. In South Dakota, Beadle, 
  Gregory, Jerauld, Sanborn, Miner, Brule, Aurora, Davison, 
  Hanson, McCook, Charles Mix, Douglas, Hutchinson, Turner, Bon 
  Homme, Yankton and Clay.

* WINDS...South 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 16 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

168 
WWUS83 KFSD 131557
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1057 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-140000-
/O.CON.KFSD.FW.W.0005.250313T1800Z-250314T0100Z/
Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-
Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-
Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Clay-Union-
1057 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Nebraska, Dixon and Dakota. In South 
  Dakota, Beadle, Kingsbury, Brookings, Gregory, Jerauld, 
  Sanborn, Miner, Lake, Moody, Brule, Aurora, Davison, Hanson, 
  McCook, Minnehaha, Charles Mix, Douglas, Hutchinson, Turner, 
  Lincoln, Bon Homme, Yankton, Clay and Union.

* WINDS...South 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 14 to 18 percent west of the James
  River, and as low as 18 to 23 percent east of the James River.

* IMPACTS...Any fire that develops will catch and spread 
  quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

577 
WWUS83 KFSD 140059
RFWFSD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
759 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-140200-
/O.EXP.KFSD.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-250314T0100Z/
Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-
Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-
Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Clay-Union-
759 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME 
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...

Conditions are improving across the area and the Red Flag Warning
will be allowed to expire.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1224 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above average temperatures return today through Friday.
  Near record highs are possible Thursday, with record warm lows
  likely for some areas Friday.

- Warm, very dry, and breezy conditions will produce elevated
  fire danger Thursday and Friday. Near-critical to critical
  conditions are likely Thursday in areas west of I-29 where
  humidity levels will be the lowest, and a Fire Weather Watch
  will be in effect Thursday afternoon.

- Well-advertised Spring storm is still on track to bring
  impactful weather to the region Friday through Saturday.
  Multiple hazards will include a potential for thunderstorms
  (some strong), high winds, snow and perhaps a brief period of
  mixed precipitation.

- Greatest travel impacts with the upcoming storm will be late
  Friday night and Saturday with a combination of high winds and
  falling snow. Low-moderate (30-50%) probability of snowfall
  exceeding 2 inches (highest across eastern SD/western MN)
  Saturday, coincident with 30-50% probability of wind gusts
  exceeding 50 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 433 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

TODAY-THURSDAY: After our brief cooldown yesterday, warmer air
makes a return to the region today, with temperatures peaking on
Thursday as the low level thermal ridge builds into Nebraska and
portions of South Dakota. Deep south-southwest flow and the dry
air mass favor strong mixing. Thus have favored models such as
the HRRR/RAP and the greater extremes of the NBM, which tend to
perform well in these scenarios, for temperatures/dew points and
winds on Thursday afternoon. This results in near-critical to
critical winds and humidity levels in many areas west of I-29
and a Fire Weather Watch will be in effect for the afternoon and
early evening hours. More details in the Fire Weather section of
this discussion.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVENING: This will be phase one, the "Spring"
portion of our well-advertised storm system. The thermal ridge
shifts east, which will mean another very warm day across most
of the forecast area. Even with similar low level temperatures,
we may not be quite as warm as Thursday, with increasing cloud
cover/moisture and chances for afternoon precipitation limiting
our full mixing potential. The main focus through this period
will be our convective chances during the afternoon/evening
ahead of the approaching storm system. Still some differences in
timing/track of the low which result in uncertainty regarding
how far west sufficient moisture/instability will spread to
support surface-based storms. However, seeing at least low
(20-30%) joint probabilities of MUCAPE > 500 J/kg and modest
deep layer shear >30kt across portions of northwest Iowa and
southwest Minnesota Friday afternoon/evening. Thus cannot argue
with our far eastern areas being included in a Marginal Risk in
the latest SPC Day 3 outlook for an elevated hail risk. Storms
would likely move north as a broken west-east line along the
leading edge of the dry slot which is currently projected to
move into northwest Iowa after 00Z. At the same time, a well
defined TroWAL will be setting up from from northern Minnesota,
southwestward into eastern South Dakota, and this leads into
phase two, the "Winter" side of the system.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: Transition from Spring back to
Winter may not be completely smooth, with ensembles showing a
low (10-20%) probability for mixed precipitation during the
transition Saturday morning. These probabilities may be on the
low side of reality due to model differences in the system track
and associated low level temperatures, with any undercutting of
the warm air aloft by a shallow cold layer producing a risk for
mixed precipitation. Will hopefully be able to refine the timing
and extent of a freezing rain or sleet risk in the coming days,
but for now will include a mention of the mixed precipitation
and possible icing in our messaging, and expand the NBM's low
freezing rain probability a bit farther south given the 12/00Z
NAM forecast soundings.

The main concern with phase two will be the combination of very
strong winds (gusts possibly exceeding 50 mph) and any falling
snow which may occur on the cold side of the system, mainly
during the day Saturday. ECMWF ensemble EFI (Extreme Forecast
Index) continues to show a high (80%) potential for gusts near
the extremes of seasonal climatology across the forecast area
Saturday and the broader NAEFS/ECMWF grand ensemble concurs with
a moderate-high (60-80%) probability of 850mb winds exceeding
50kts in areas west of I-29 Saturday morning. The main question
will be how much snow occurs concurrently with these strong
winds and ensembles are still showing a very wide range of
possibilities in this regard. We are seeing low to moderate
(30-50%) probabilities of snowfall exceeding 2 inches across a
good portion of southeast SD/southwest MN, but similar to the
mixed precipitation potential mentioned above, the probabilities
could be muted by differing placement of a relatively narrow
band of heavier snow, so do not discount the potential for some
higher end amounts (25% chance of exceeding 3-4 inches).

While we are still working out the finer details, the important
takeaway for Saturday will be any falling snow with the expected
strong winds will lead to difficult travel, and near blizzard
to blizzard conditions are possible. Please consider adjusting
travel plans accordingly.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY: Little time to examine the outer periods of the
forecast this morning, but it does look like early next week
will feature a brief warming trend with no significant systems
expected at least through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Light and variable
winds begin the TAF period early this afternoon. Winds will slightly
strengthen out of the southeast with speeds up to 5-10 knots
for this evening and night. Winds will strengthen tomorrow
morning while turning southerly with gusts up to 20-25 knots.
The breezy southerly winds will finish out the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 433 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Much warmer air returns to the region by Thursday, with strong
mixing in a very dry air mass resulting in near-critical to
critical fire weather conditions in areas west of I-29 Thursday
afternoon. A deep south to southwest wind profile will promote
mixing as high as 8000ft AGL, especially in areas west of the
James River Valley toward south central South Dakota. The deep
mixing could drop dew points into the 20s as temperatures warm
to near 80 degrees. This yields relative humidity values as low
as 15-20 percent west of the James River Valley, and as low as
25 percent as far east as Salem South Dakota to Ponca Nebraska.
Add to this gusty southerly winds, with gusts as high as 30 mph
during peak mixing, and near-critical to critical fire behavior
will be possible. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued from 1 PM
to 8 PM Thursday, roughly along and west of a line from Iroquois
to Salem to Vermillion SD and Ponca NE. It should be noted that
while humidity levels will be slightly higher farther to the
east, similar to slightly stronger winds will still result in
Very High grassland fire danger.

Friday will be another warm and breezy day, but humidity levels
will be on the increase ahead of an approaching storm system.
That said, we are still looking at elevated (High to Very High)
fire danger across the region Friday.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for SDZ038-050-052>054-057>061-063>066-068>070.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for NEZ013.

&&

DISCUSSION...JH
AVIATION...Meyers
FIRE WEATHER...JH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
501 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

NEZ013-SDZ038-050-052>054-057>061-063>066-068>070-131015-
Dixon-Beadle-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Brule-Aurora-Davison-
Hanson-McCook-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Clay-
501 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Nebraska, central
South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota
and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Very warm and dry air along with gusty south winds will result in
near-critical to critical fire weather conditions on Thursday. Please
avoid burning.

A large and complex storm system will impact the region Friday into
the weekend, especially Saturday. This system has the potential to
bring multiple risks to the area, including few thunderstorms late
Friday. The greater concern will be high winds and accumulating
snow late Friday night into Saturday which could make travel
difficult. Details remain uncertain with this storm system, so
continue to monitor your local forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ014-SDZ039-040-055-056-062-067-071-131015-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dakota-Kingsbury-Brookings-Lake-Moody-Minnehaha-Union-
501 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, east central South
Dakota and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Warm and dry air along with gusty south winds will result in elevated
fire weather conditions Thursday and Friday. Please avoid burning.

A large and complex storm system will impact the region Friday into
the weekend, especially Saturday. This system will bring multiple
risks to the area, beginning with scattered thunderstorms late
Friday. A few strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging
winds are possible in portions of northwest Iowa and southwest
Minnesota Friday afternoon and evening.

By late Friday night and Saturday, concerns will shift to strong
winds, a transition from rain to snow, and possibly a brief period
of mixed precipitation, which could make travel difficult. Details
remain uncertain with this storm system, so continue to monitor your
local forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.