Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
300 PM MST Thu Sep 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon will become more widespread tonight. Expect scattered
showers and storms to continue through Sunday. Some stronger storms
may contain large hail, damaging winds, and very heavy rainfall
leading to flash flooding. Conditions look to dry out early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A cutoff Pacific low will slowly move into Southern
California this evening, then will slow down and arrive over Yuma by
Saturday morning. The low hangs around through the weekend, exiting
to the north and east on Monday.

Strong moisture advection continues across the Desert Southwest this
afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect the
showers and thunderstorms to continue through tonight, with a
gradual push to the east through the night. Some storms will be
strong and may become severe with the potential for large hail,
damaging winds, very heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, and
even the possibility for a tornado. Shear is fairly high and
combined with the cold air aloft and moderate instability, we have
the potential for isolated severe storms to occur through tonight
and again on Friday. The best shear overnight is generally off
across western zones while the best chances for precipitation will
remain off across eastern zones. It may be a story of poor timing
and placement which may end up keeping some of the stronger,
potentially rotating, storms at bay. Either way, be prepared for
potentially severe weather through at least Friday, and possibly
into the weekend. For the most part, storm motions are between 15-25
mph which should help to limit flash flooding. However, some storms
may train/back build and with some rainfall rates around 3-5"/hour,
could be a recipe for flash flooding. Stay weather aware through this
weekend and heed all weather warnings.

Conditions dry out behind the departing low and only some lingering
moisture across our western edges may allow for an isolated shower
or storm. Temperatures will also start to warm up once again.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 25/18Z through Friday 26/18Z...VFR to MVFR
conditions in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA
starting 18-21Z, lasting until 03-06Z Friday. Some TSRA could
reach severe level with strong localized gusty winds and large
hail. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible during the overnight period.
SHRA/TSRA picks up again after 18Z Friday. Winds S-SE 10kts
daytime, light and variable overnight.

OUTLOOK...Friday 26/18Z through Sunday 28/18Z...VFR to MVFR
conditions in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA
possible between 18Z and 06Z each day. Some of the TSRA could be
severe with strong localized gusty winds. Winds SW-SE 10kts
daytime, light and variable overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Saturday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms this evening will become more widespread tonight
through Saturday. Some storms may become severe. Outside of storms,
expect southerly winds at 5-15 mph.

Sunday through Tuesday...Periods of showers and thunderstorms
continue through Sunday, with coverage becoming isolated on Monday
and Tuesday. Daytime southerly winds at 5-15 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
146 PM MST Thu Sep 25 2025

AZZ013-014-252115-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County AZ-Little Colorado
River Valley in Apache County AZ-
146 PM MST Thu Sep 25 2025 /246 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025/

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES
UNTIL 215 PM MST /315 PM MDT/...

At 146 PM MST /246 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 6 miles north of Taylor Airport, or 20 miles north of
Show Low, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Taylor, Shumway, Taylor Airport, Snowflake and White Mountain Lake
  Estates.

This includes the following highways...
	State Route 277 between mile markers 332 and 336.
	State Route 77 between mile markers 356 and 370.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3445 11016 3464 11017 3467 10982 3435 10983
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 277DEG 13KT 3453 11008

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Bernhart

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
222 PM MST Thu Sep 25 2025

AZZ007-008-015-037-038-252145-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons AZ-Western Mogollon Rim AZ-Yavapai
County Valleys and Basins AZ-Coconino Plateau AZ-Yavapai County
Mountains AZ-
222 PM MST Thu Sep 25 2025 /322 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025/

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES
UNTIL 245 PM MST /345 PM MDT/...

At 222 PM MST /322 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 9 miles south of Bill Williams Mountain, or 25 miles
northeast of Chino Valley, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Williams, Bill Williams Mountain, Kaibab Lake, Sherwood Forest
  Estates, Sycamore Falls, Scholz Lake, Whitehorse Lake, Red Lake,
  J.D. Dam Lake, Garland Prairie, Parks, H A Clark Memorial Field
  and Sycamore Canyon Wilderness.

This includes the following highways...
	Interstate 40 between mile markers 153 and 173.
	Business Interstate 40 between mile markers 163 and 165.
	State Route 89 between mile markers 355 and 356.
	State Route 64 between mile markers 186 and 194.

This includes the following recreation areas and campgrounds...
White Horse Lake Campground, Camp Raymond, Dogtown Lake Campground,
Kaibab Lake Campground and Bill Williams Campground.

This includes the following swimming holes...
Sycamore Falls, Lower Sycamore Falls "The Golden Pond" and Paradise
Forks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 11241 3542 11220 3516 11192 3496 11223
      3511 11244
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 226DEG 17KT 3507 11224

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Bernhart

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