Alert archive / Arizona / Red Flag Warnings in 2025

Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

May 13, 2025Apache County, Navajo County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this red flag warning at May 13, 2025, 2:12 PM MST for Apache County, Navajo County, Arizona. It took effect at May 14, 2025, 9:00 AM MST. It was in force for 9 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 13, 2025, 2:12 PM MST (21:12 UTC)
In effect from
May 14, 2025, 9:00 AM MST
Expired
May 14, 2025, 6:00 PM MST
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Counties Apache County, AZ, Navajo County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 149 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 303 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM at 12:00Z on 2025-05-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM at 12:00Z on 2025-05-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 84 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
3584 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
84 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
150 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at May 13, 10:40 AM MST, 3 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 13, 10:40 AM MST, 3 hours 32 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1040 AM MST Tue May 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A dry weather system will continue to bring strong
winds across northern Arizona today. Expect winds gusting from
45 to 55 mph with some areas exceeding 60 mph. Cooler
temperatures arrive today and continue Wednesday before recovering
through the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...Winds have already started to blow this morning and will
continue into these evening. By around sunset, we should see the
winds dropping off and becoming fairly light through the night. It
will be breezy again on Wednesday but the winds will not be nearly
as strong as they are today. Forecast is in good shape with no
changes to the headlines needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /438 AM MST/...A strong Pacific mid-latitude cyclone is evident
over northern California in mid-level WV imagery. This system
will continue eastward and skirt to the north of Arizona keeping
precipitation away from the state. Cooler temperatures will creep
from west to east today, with most of northern AZ 5-10 degrees
below normal by Wednesday. However the primary hazard with this
system will be winds.

Gusts as high as 45-55 mph were observed on Monday as mid-level
winds began to ramp up ahead of the trough. The boundary layer will
stay somewhat mixed through the night, and elevated gusts up to 25-
35 mph are being observed as of 2:45 AM MST with higher gusts
possible along/downwind of terrain features. A strong middle to
upper level jet riding the southern periphery of the trough will
peak over Arizona by this afternoon bringing the highest threat for
strong surface winds. Widespread gusts 45-55 mph are expected today
with a few areas 60+ mph by tomorrow afternoon especially in the
Little Colorado River Valley (LCR). A High Wind Warning will be in
effect today for the LCR, with a Wind Advisory in effect for most
else of northern Arizona.

Low humidity and dry fuels in the LCR and far eastern AZ combined
with strong winds will lead to Critical fire weather concerns, and a
Red Flag Advisory will be in effect today for these regions.

Winds remain elevated in far eastern AZ on Wednesday, then lighter
winds return with temperatures warming to near normal by Friday.
Ensembles are in better agreement for another deep Pacific trough
moving through bringing cooler temps and elevated winds this
weekend. Current trends indicate that this system will dive deep
enough to carry some moisture into northern AZ. The best chance for
showers looks to be Sunday at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 13/18Z through Wednesday 14/18Z...Sfc winds
S-SW20-30g35-55kts through 02Z then decreasing to 10-20kts AFT
04Z Wednesday. Most areas VFR, except localized MVFR/IFR in BLDU
downwind of the Mogollon Rim this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 14/18Z through Friday 16/18Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Sfc winds SW-W 10 to 20Kt gusting to 30kts on
Wednesday and southwest 10-15 kts gusting to 25kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Very windy conditions today,
with southwest winds 20 to 35 mph and gusting from 45 to 60 mph.
Red Flag Warnings in effect for the Little Colorado River Valley,
the White Mountains, and the Chuska Mountains. Winds decrease
dramatically tonight, with less wind expected for Wednesday. Most
areas west-southwest 15 to 25 mph, with a few higher gusts possible
east of Show low and into the White Mountains.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry with west-southwest winds 15 to 25
mph Thursday, turning southwesterly Friday and then increasing to 15
to 30 mph on Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ004>011-015>017-037>040.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ111>114-117.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ012>014.

&&

PUBLIC...Meola/Lewandowski
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 13, 10:50 AM MST, 3 hours 22 minutes before
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Local storm report, May 13, 11:03 AM MST, 3 hours 9 minutes before
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Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Arizona, 2025Every red flag warning in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.