Alert archive / Arizona / Red Flag Warnings in 2025
Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this red flag warning at May 13, 2025, 2:12 PM MST for Apache County, Navajo County, Arizona. It took effect at May 14, 2025, 9:00 AM MST. It was in force for 9 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- May 13, 2025, 2:12 PM MST (21:12 UTC)
- In effect from
- May 14, 2025, 9:00 AM MST
- Expired
- May 14, 2025, 6:00 PM MST
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Counties Apache County, AZ, Navajo County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 149 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 303 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3584 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 84 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 150 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at May 13, 10:40 AM MST, 3 hours 32 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 13, 10:40 AM MST, 3 hours 32 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1040 AM MST Tue May 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A dry weather system will continue to bring strong winds across northern Arizona today. Expect winds gusting from 45 to 55 mph with some areas exceeding 60 mph. Cooler temperatures arrive today and continue Wednesday before recovering through the end of the week. && .UPDATE...Winds have already started to blow this morning and will continue into these evening. By around sunset, we should see the winds dropping off and becoming fairly light through the night. It will be breezy again on Wednesday but the winds will not be nearly as strong as they are today. Forecast is in good shape with no changes to the headlines needed. && .PREV DISCUSSION /438 AM MST/...A strong Pacific mid-latitude cyclone is evident over northern California in mid-level WV imagery. This system will continue eastward and skirt to the north of Arizona keeping precipitation away from the state. Cooler temperatures will creep from west to east today, with most of northern AZ 5-10 degrees below normal by Wednesday. However the primary hazard with this system will be winds. Gusts as high as 45-55 mph were observed on Monday as mid-level winds began to ramp up ahead of the trough. The boundary layer will stay somewhat mixed through the night, and elevated gusts up to 25- 35 mph are being observed as of 2:45 AM MST with higher gusts possible along/downwind of terrain features. A strong middle to upper level jet riding the southern periphery of the trough will peak over Arizona by this afternoon bringing the highest threat for strong surface winds. Widespread gusts 45-55 mph are expected today with a few areas 60+ mph by tomorrow afternoon especially in the Little Colorado River Valley (LCR). A High Wind Warning will be in effect today for the LCR, with a Wind Advisory in effect for most else of northern Arizona. Low humidity and dry fuels in the LCR and far eastern AZ combined with strong winds will lead to Critical fire weather concerns, and a Red Flag Advisory will be in effect today for these regions. Winds remain elevated in far eastern AZ on Wednesday, then lighter winds return with temperatures warming to near normal by Friday. Ensembles are in better agreement for another deep Pacific trough moving through bringing cooler temps and elevated winds this weekend. Current trends indicate that this system will dive deep enough to carry some moisture into northern AZ. The best chance for showers looks to be Sunday at this time. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 13/18Z through Wednesday 14/18Z...Sfc winds S-SW20-30g35-55kts through 02Z then decreasing to 10-20kts AFT 04Z Wednesday. Most areas VFR, except localized MVFR/IFR in BLDU downwind of the Mogollon Rim this afternoon. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 14/18Z through Friday 16/18Z...Expect VFR conditions. Sfc winds SW-W 10 to 20Kt gusting to 30kts on Wednesday and southwest 10-15 kts gusting to 25kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Very windy conditions today, with southwest winds 20 to 35 mph and gusting from 45 to 60 mph. Red Flag Warnings in effect for the Little Colorado River Valley, the White Mountains, and the Chuska Mountains. Winds decrease dramatically tonight, with less wind expected for Wednesday. Most areas west-southwest 15 to 25 mph, with a few higher gusts possible east of Show low and into the White Mountains. Thursday through Saturday...Dry with west-southwest winds 15 to 25 mph Thursday, turning southwesterly Friday and then increasing to 15 to 30 mph on Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004>011-015>017-037>040. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ111>114-117. High Wind Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ012>014. && PUBLIC...Meola/Lewandowski AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
In the hours before
Local storm report, May 13, 10:50 AM MST, 3 hours 22 minutes before
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</html>Local storm report, May 13, 10:52 AM MST, 3 hours 20 minutes before
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</html>Local storm report, May 13, 11:03 AM MST, 3 hours 9 minutes before
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Red Flag Warnings in Arizona, 2025Every red flag warning in 2025
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.