Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1037 PM MST Sun May 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Winds will increase across northern Arizona through
Tuesday as a Pacific trough approaches the area. Expect winds
gusting 35-45mph on Monday, with stronger winds forecast on
Tuesday. Above normal temperatures on Monday will fall to 5-15
degrees below normal by Wednesday with the passage of the front.

&&

.UPDATE...Nothing of note overnight with the current forecast
remaining on track. A windy couple of days lie ahead, especially
Tuesday, with the potential for critical fire weather conditions
across the lower elevations of east-central Arizona. Wind gusts in
excess of 50 mph will be possible from around Flagstaff eastward
on Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /543 PM MST/...A strong Pacific trough will drop
southward across California and the western Great Basin on Monday
and Tuesday. Gusty winds will develop ahead of the trough over
northern Arizona, with high confidence (>70%) for wind gusts
exceeding 35mph on Monday afternoon along and east of the Mogollon
Rim. Stronger winds are forecast for Tuesday, with >70%
confidence in wind gusts >45mph along and north of the Mogollon
Rim. Little or no precipitation is expected over Arizona. The
primary impacts will be difficult travel on area roadways, blowing
of vulnerable outdoor objects, and some limitations to visibility
due to blowing dust across NE Arizona.

One detail of note - winds may be particularly strong just
downwind (east) of the San Francisco Peaks on Monday night as the
winds aloft are ducted toward the ground along and just east of
the Hwy 89 corridor overnight. Those in Doney Park, Winona, and
traveling on Hwy 89 north of Flagstaff should be aware of the
potential for locally stronger winds.

The passage of the front on Tuesday night will bring cooler
temperatures, lighter winds, and a continuation of the dry weather
on Wednesday through the rest of the week. Another trough may
impact the area next weekend with a gusty winds and a slight
chance for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 12/06Z through Tuesday 13/06Z...VFR conditions.
Light and variable or terrain driven winds overnight. S-SW winds
increase to 20-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts after 16Z-18Z Monday
with blowing dust possible mainly northeast AZ. Winds remain
elevated Monday night at 10-20 kts, with localized higher gusts
downstream of terrain features north of the Mogollon Rim where
overnight gusts of 30-45 kts may develop.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 13/06Z through Thursday 15/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. S-SW winds increasing to 20-35 kts with gusts 40-50
kts by mid morning Tuesday then gradually decreasing by 06Z Wed.
Areas of blowing dust expected in northeast Arizona Tuesday
afternoon, including KINW and KRQE where MVFR visibility could
develop. Winds decrease to 10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts
Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Daytime high temperatures are 5-
10 degrees above normal Monday, cooling to at or 5 degrees below
normal on Tuesday. Winds SW 15-25 mph, gusting to 40 mph on Monday,
SW 20-35 mph, gusting 40-50 mph on Tuesday.  Min RH's both days
between 8-20%. Main thing that's kept us from issuing any fire
weather products is fuels still haven't dried up from last week's
precipitation. Will continue to monitor and if fuels show signs of
rapid drying, then fire weather products will be considered.

Wednesday through Friday...Dry with a slow warming trend, with
temperatures on the lower end of the normal range. Min RH's at 10-
20% each afternoon.  Wind W 10-20 mph, gusts to 30 mph Wednesday, W
10-15 mph on Thursday, SW 10-20 mph, gusts to 30 mph Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/
Monday for AZZ004-006-007-009-011>017-039-040.

&&

PUBLIC...McCollum/BAK
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff