Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1021 AM MST Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will slowly begin moving east tonight
but not before some more record high temperatures could be broken
both today and tomorrow. Temperatures will begin to slowly cool
down this weekend but remain well above average, with some gusty
southwesterly winds during the afternoon hours.

&&

.UPDATE...Plenty of record highs will either be tied or broken
this afternoon around the state. As of 930 AM, FLagstaff has
already exceeded the normal high temperature for the day by 10
degrees (normal is 58 and the 930 AM temperature was 68).
Forecasts are in good shape with no updates needed this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /226 AM MST/...Expect another day of record or near
record high temperatures today before a Pacific trough moving by
to our north begins to flatten and push our high pressure ridge
off to the east starting tonight. The slow cooldown begins across
the area on Saturday but a couple records could still be tied or
broken. By Sunday enough cooler air will have moved in to keep any
record highs on that date safe from being broken. No
precipitation is expected from this trough as it moves by, but the
pressure gradient between it and the departing ridge will cause
the winds to pick up higher than they've been the last few days,
out of the southwest at about 15-20 mph, gusting 25 to 35 mph.
This with relatively low humidity will bring parts of the area
close to near-critical fire weather conditions, but winds aren't
quite strong enough to issue any fire weather products at this
time.

On Monday the trough moves away so this should allow our winds to
ease up a bit compared to on the weekend. On Tuesday a weak
shortwave will move across the area bringing limited moisture with
it, but enough for an increase in clouds and maybe a few sprinkles
or light showers over the northern third of the state, with the
Chuskas having the highest POPs in the region.

Wednesday and Thursday look dry at this time. However models are
showing a cutoff Low potentially setting up off the southern
California coast and this feature could advance across the area on
Friday and bring some precipitation chances. This will have to be
watched closely as its still pretty far out in the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 11/18Z through Saturday 12/18Z...VFR
conditions expected. Daytime winds are SW 5-15 kts. Overnight winds
VRB at 10 kts or less.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 12/18Z through Monday 14/18Z...Continued VFR
conditions expected. Daytime winds are SW 10-20 kts with gusts up to
35 kts on Saturday and Sunday. Winds remain elevated 10-15 kts
northeast of terrain features overnight Saturday, VRB at less than
10 kts otherwise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Dry and warm with high
temperatures 10-20 degrees above normal. Expect near-critical fire
weather conditions on Saturday, especially along and north of the
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Winds will be southwest at 10-15
mph today, increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph on Saturday.
Minimum RH at or below 10% each afternoon.

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry and warm. Near-critical fire weather
conditions again on Sunday. Minimum RH will generally be at or below
15% each afternoon. Winds forecast to be 10-20 mph with gusts 25-35
mph on Sunday, turning generally south to southwest at 15 mph or
less on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

PUBLIC...JJ/Bernhart
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff