Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2025

Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 2, 2025Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 2, 2025, 1:24 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 5 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 2, 2025, 1:24 PM MST (20:24 UTC)
Expired: Jul 2, 2025, 6:30 PM MST
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Damage threat: Considerable
Flood severity: None

County Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 141 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 458 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -169 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2537 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 35 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 88 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 2, 10:10 AM MST, 3 hours 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 10:10 AM MST, 3 hours 14 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1010 AM MST Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread to scattered showers and thunderstorms
through Thursday. Drier and warmer conditions return for the holiday
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday...A closed low continues to
remain to the west of the area this morning but is expected to lift
and cross the region over the next 36 hours or so. With the ridge
situated to our east, we will continue to have a strong southerly
fetch and advection of moisture into the region. As the low pushes
to the east, it will bring in some enhanced dynamics and help to
provide additional lift to the region. With the increased moisture
and strong lift present, we should see more widespread storms. PWATs
around 1.00" today lend support to efficient rainmaking storms
today. Throw in the slower storm motion and we will see an increase
in the probability for flash flooding to occur. Additionally, some
of the stronger storms will see gusty winds around 40-50 mph and
small hail, with isolated severe gusts possible. Similar conditions
exist for Thursday, but as the low/trough pushes further east, we
will see some drier air start to push into our western areas and
PWATs will drop down closer to 0.60-0.80" across the region. This
will push the better chances for showers and thunderstorms eastward
through the day.

Friday onward...As the low passes to the north and east, a more
westerly flow develops and brings in some much drier air. Some
isolated chances for showers may continue across far eastern
Arizona, mainly the White Mountains, but even that is looking to be
<10% through Friday. For the weekend, things dry out further and
little to no precipitation is expected in our forecast area.
Temperatures will also start to warm once again for the weekend and
we could see temperatures nearing 110 degrees in the lower
elevations of the Grand Canyon by Sunday. By the end of the weekend,
the high retrogrades and moves across Arizona/New Mexico before
settling over the Great Basin around the middle of next week. This
will bring back hot temperatures and is not really a great set up to
keep showers and thunderstorms in our area.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 02/18Z through Thursday 03/18Z...Widespread -SHRA/-TSRA
forecast through at least 04Z. Reduced visibilities from heavy
rain likely in stronger storms. Expect winds to be S through W
10-20 kts gusting near 25-30 kts, but gusty/erratic outflow winds
near 35-45 kts possible through 04Z. Light and variable winds look
to return after 06Z. HZ/FU possible near KRQE from a nearby
wildfire.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 03/18Z through Saturday 05/18Z...Mostly VFR
conditions expected through the outlook period. Brief MVFR
conditions possible Thursday between 18Z and 00Z due to
-SHRA/-TSRA, primarily along and east of a KGCN-KFLG-KPAN line.
 Look for SW-W winds 10-20 kts each afternoon with gusts up to 25
 kts. Gusty/erratic winds possible on Thursday due to
 showers/storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Widespread to scattered showers
and thunderstorms expected each day. Brief downpours, hail, and
gusty, erratic winds with gusts to 40-50 mph possible in and around
thunderstorms. Outside of storms, expect SW winds 10-20 mph with
gusts 25-30 mph each day.

Friday through Sunday...Isolated showers possible near the
White Mountains on Friday. Otherwise, expect warmer and drier
conditions through the weekend with afternoon RH values dropping
back down into the teens. SW- W winds 5-15 mph with gusts 20-30
mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 2, 12:14 PM MST, 1 hour 10 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 2, 1:01 PM MST, 23 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
101 PM MST Wed Jul 2 2025

AZZ008-037-022100-
Yavapai County Mountains AZ-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins AZ-
101 PM MST Wed Jul 2 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 2 PM MST...

At 101 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mayer, or 15 miles southeast of Prescott, moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Prescott Valley, Dewey-Humboldt, Mayer, Spring Valley, Mt. Union
  and Poland Junction.

This includes State Route 69 between mile markers 265 and 279.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3434 11232 3441 11241 3455 11228 3439 11209
      3428 11225
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 225DEG 5KT 3438 11229

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH

Bernhart

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 1, 5:44 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 1, 7:37 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Navajo	23 min
Jul 2, 1:01 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	59 min
Jul 2, 1:36 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Coconino	3 hr
Jul 2, 1:59 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	31 min
Jul 2, 2:08 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Navajo	3 hr
Jul 2, 2:34 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	41 min
Jul 2, 3:24 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Gila	3 hr
Jul 2, 4:49 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Yavapai	9 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2025 Every flash flood warning in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.