Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
410 PM MST Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A more active monsoonal period is forecast through
Friday, with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms
expected each day. Cooler temperatures are also expected through
the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...A weak trough sitting off the coast of Baja
California is prevalent in mid-level WV imagery. This sits in
conjunction with general ridging over New Mexico and Texas. These
features are working to set up an ideal axis of southerly moisture
advection into northern AZ. The 18Z FGZ sounding shows precipitable
water right around 0.79 inches, up from 0.65 inches at 12Z. We are
seeing activity firing along the higher terrain sites as of 1430
MST. Conditions are ideal for cells to stay rather stationary while
maintaining high precipitation rates, and there is a risk of flash
flooding today. Other than flooding the hazards expected today are
hail and gusty outflows to around 35-45 mph.

Tonight...Ample moisture will be present well into the overnight
hours. Things stay active as we see a transition to lighter and
widespread showers northeast of the Mogollon Rim a little after
sunset. Additionally, a small vorticity maxima currently apparent in
satellite imagery south of Tucson is heading towards northern AZ.
This feature could bring a region of overnight showers to Yavapai
county lasting through tomorrow morning, but there is some
uncertainty in the guidance at this time.

Tomorrow and Friday...The low pressure system continues to meander
northward and we will see another round of convection initiate
around 1200-1300 MST tomorrow. Further periods of locally heavy
precipitation are possible. This is complicated by the fact that the
latest hi-res model runs are picking up a trend where dry mid-level
air wraps around the cyclone and begins to intrude northern AZ. This
will help to shut down thunderstorm activity after sunset Thursday,
and PW will tick down a bit Thursday afternoon through Friday.
Overall high coverage of thunderstorms is still expected each day,
but perhaps a bit less numerous than today.

Saturday and beyond...Another round of dry air may intrude this
weekend. Right now it looks as if it will be wet enough for some
scattered-numerous thunderstorm activity on Saturday, but this is
still very uncertain. After the trough passes, a period of drier
conditions could be in store. However, high pressure out east
maintains its structure and keeps enough moisture around for daily
isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 17/00Z through Friday 18/00Z...-SHRA/-TSRA
will continue through at least 06Z, with -SHRA possible overnight
primarily along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Heavier storms will
be capable of producing gusty/erratic winds (35-45 kts). Outside
of outflow driven winds, look for variable winds 5-15 kts. VFR
conditions should persist, but brief MVFR ceilings and
visibilities will be possible in heavier storms.

OUTLOOK...Friday 18/00Z through Sunday 20/00Z...SHRA/TSRA will
continue through the outlook period, with best chances between
18Z-03Z. Stronger storms will be capable of producing heavy rain,
gusty/erratic winds, hail, and lightning. Outside of storm driven
outflow winds, looks for W-SW winds 5-15 kts. MVFR conditions
possible in heavier storms, with VFR conditions expected
otherwise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Increasing monsoon moisture
will bring numerous thunderstorm Thursday and Friday, capable of
producing a wetting rainfall. Gusty/erratic outflow winds and flash
flooding will be the primary hazards. Otherwise, daytime winds west
through southwest 5-10 mph with gusts 10-20 mph each day.

Saturday through Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday, becoming scattered to isolated Sunday and Monday.
Wetting rains are likely within any stronger storms. Winds west
through southwest 5-10 mph with gusts 10-20 mph each day. Gusty,
erratic winds possible in and around thunderstorm

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

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