Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
Issued by National Weather Service Tucson AZ
141 PM MST Tue Jun 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue the
rest of this afternoon and into tonight. A brief lull in shower
activity will occur Wednesday morning but showers and
thunderstorms will redevelop Wednesday afternoon. A slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms will continue along the Utah/Arizona
border on Thursday with the rest of the state beginning to dry
out.  Warmer and drier conditions return Friday through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are developing over the area
and will become more numerous this afternoon. These storms could
have more staying power than usual and last late into the night as
dynamics from the Low approaching from the California coast
provides extra lift that usually would be lost when we lose
daylight. A FLOOD WATCH for flash flooding is now in effect for
the northwestern part of the state and will continue until 5pm on
Wednesday. Reason for the long duration of the event being even
though we may see a brief lull in activity on Wednesday morning,
daytime heating along with the weakening Low moving across the
area providing extra lift will allow another round of showers and
storms to initiate around noon Wednesday and continue through the
evening. As with most convective events, rainfall amounts will be
locally heavy under storms that do develop.

By Thursday this Low will have opened up into a weak wave and
departed the area but another shortwave brushing by to the north
of us could trigger a few isolated showers or storms mainly along
the Arizona/Utah border, but potentially as far south as the Grand
Canyon, with the rest of Arizona drying out and beginning to warm
back up closer to early June averages.

By Friday and lasting through the weekend, high pressure begins to
rebuild from the south which will dry the rest of the state out
and allow temperatures to climb to seasonal or slightly above
seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 03/18Z through Wednesday 04/18Z...VFR conditions
expected until around 19Z when scattered SHRA/TSRA begin to
develop. Scattered SHRA/TSRA continue through around 06Z, with a
40-60% chance of continuing through the overnight hours. A few of the
stronger storms could produce MVFR/IFR in +RA, hail, and gusty
winds. Outside of storm activity, winds W-SW at 5-15 kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 04/18Z through Friday 06/18Z...Scattered to
numerous SHRA/TSRA on Wednesday before decreasing after 00Z Thurs.
Local MVFR/IFR possible in stronger storms with otherwise mostly
VFR. A 20-30% chance of -TSRA continues from KGCN northward from
00Z Thurs - 00Z Fri. Away from storms, winds mainly W-SW around
5-15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday, scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue on Wednesday, with only a few isolated
showers or storms along the Utah/Arizona border Thursday. A few
stronger storms could produce hail, heavy rain and erratic wind
gusts. Otherwise, expect daytime winds from the west to southwest
at 10-20 mph.

Friday through Sunday...Dry and warmer weather returns Friday
into the weekend with decreasing humidity each day and
temperatures climbing above average by the end of the weekend.
Winds generally west to southwest at 10-15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for AZZ004-006>008-012-
015-016-037-038.

&&

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
Issued by National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
115 PM MST Tue Jun 3 2025

AZZ012-015-032045-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-Western Mogollon Rim-
115 PM MST Tue Jun 3 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY
INCLUDING WINONA AND INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH 145 PM MST...

At 114 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Winona, or 11 miles east of Flagstaff, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Angell, Canyon Padre Bridge, Twin Arrows, and Winona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3513 11146 3525 11143 3524 11120 3507 11122
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 280DEG 18KT 3520 11143

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
Issued by National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
157 PM MST Tue Jun 3 2025

AZZ012-013-032130-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-Little Colorado River
Valley in Coconino County-
157 PM MST Tue Jun 3 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT INTERSTATE 40 IN SOUTHWESTERN
NAVAJO AND SOUTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM MST...

At 153 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Winslow Airport, or near Winslow, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Winslow, Winslow Airport, Homolovi State Park, Clear Creek Reservoir,
Bushman Acres, and Homolovi State Park Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 11093 3515 11089 3514 11056 3491 11058
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 284DEG 21KT 3506 11082

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JJ